2011 Te Karere Digi-poll

TVNZ’s Te Karere programme has just released a poll done of 1,002 Maori voters (367 from general and 635 from Maori rolls), taken from 6 to 28 January. I blogged their 2010 poll here. Key findings so far are below. :

Party Vote:

• Labour 36.9% (-1.0% from Jan 10)
• Maori Party 36.2% (-2.1%)
• National 16.8% (-0.15)
• Greens 4.5% (+1.2%)
• NZ First 4.3%
• ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)

Not a lot of change from last year I have to say. The breakdown by roll is interesting. On the Maori roll it is Maori Party 46% (-5%), Labour 35% (+3%) and National 12% (+15). On the general roll it is Labour 42% (-9%), National 30% (+2%), Maori 11% (nc).

One can compare the Maori roll results to the 2008 election. Labour got 50% of the party vote in the 2008 election, so are down 15% from the election. The Maori Party got 29% of the maori roll party vote in the 2008 election, so are up 17% from the election. So in 2008 Labour was 21% higher than the Maori Party, and today they are 11% behind the Maori Party – a net 16% swing from Labour.

Preferred PM:

1. John Key 26.4% (-4.1%)
2. Pita Sharples 7.8% (-4.0%)
3. Tariana Turia 7.8% (+2.9%)
4. Winston Peters 7.0% (nc)
5. Phil Goff 6.4% (+1.8%)
6. Hone Harawira 2.7% (-0.3%)
7. Helen Clark 2.6% (-1.2%)
8. Shane Jones 2.1% (-0.1%)

A small improvement for Goff, but still very low considering how strong Maori support for Labour has been in the past.

Key is Preferred PM for 33% of Maori on the general roll and 24% of Maori on the Maori roll.

Phil Goff

• Only 25.2% (-10.8%) of Labour voters think he is the best person to lead Labour
• 24.1% (+5.9%) say Goff provides good leadership on Maori issues

Shane Jones will be pleased with these results.