2011 Christchurch Earthquake Day VI

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OECD rank 22 kiwi

Quite an informative list:

List of New Zealand disasters by death toll

Mt Erebus holds its place in history over that of Napier by a total difference of one.
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February 27, 2011 9:15am
Lindsay Addie

The owner of the Hotel Grand Chancellor was on RNZ a couple of minutes ago and admitted the building is doomed. They’ll have to knock it over sooner than later because as long as it’s there it’s going to make things difficult on many levels.
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February 27, 2011 9:16am
Viking2

No, they are going to shore it up as of a few minutes ago. Liquefaction under neath is very bad.

8.50am Liquefaction underneath the Grand Chancellor is so bad that concrete is going to need to be poured into the foundations before being reinforced with steel in order to stabilise the hotel.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10709068
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February 27, 2011 9:19am
Pete George

From what I’ve heard they are going to stabilise it to make it safe enough to complete recovery work around it, then it will need to be demolished.
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February 27, 2011 9:25am
Inventory2

V2 – a temporary solution at best. They are just trying to shore it up so that they can get in and search the area. The HGC is knackered.
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February 27, 2011 9:26am
Lindsay Addie

Viking2,

I heard it from the CEO of the company on RNZ, it looks to me they’re going to take temporary steps to shore it up but in the long run it’s not going to last. I cannot see how they’re ever going to get the hotel back up to a perfect vertical position and fix the problem of it being twisted around on itself as I clearly witnessed from the Manchester Street side on Tuesday.
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February 27, 2011 9:31am
Viking2

Probably right. No CHCH cbd for a couple of years. Perhaps they should clear the lot out in time for the RWC and replace everything there with large tents, a bit like Auckland waterfront.

you know Army tents for accommodation, Latrines etc just like a refugee camp. Great for visitors.

Shouldn’t jest I know but many’s a true word spoken in jest.
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February 27, 2011 9:38am
Viking2

On the brighter side of thinds doesn’t the IRD have an large office there. You know the one that houses all the collectors etc Guess they will be out of action for a week or two.
Call Henderson he might have a decent building to rent them.

Of course Bob Jones could be a happy guy. Govt. depts may all have to move to Wellington and fill up some of the offices they have been vacating as the grim reaper slashed the nio. of govt. employees in Wgtn.

Its an ill wind kinda stuff.
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February 27, 2011 9:40am
BeaB

Time perhaps to reflect that most of us knew our children and grandchildren would be safe in the care of the hundreds of teachers throughout Christchurch. Schools have excellent emergency drills, kids are well prepared and, when the chips are down, we can trust our teachers to look after them until we can get there.
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February 27, 2011 10:49am
kowtow

Any one notice one of the alleged burglars had a shiner?

How sad. 🙂
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February 27, 2011 10:49am
Chuck Bird

I heard last night on talkback on RadioLive that a Christchurch MP had used a helicopter to bring him and posible his family fish and chips. I did no hear the name of the MP. The story may be totally false. I would like to know if is true though. Has anyone heard this story?
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February 27, 2011 11:00am
nickb

For all our insignificant bitching and moaning about politics, the response to this disaster by the people of Christchurch and New Zealand remind us why we live in the best country in the world.

From watching the media coverage of the quake it is truly astonishing to see how many people are helping in their own way. Groups of students and farmers shoveling liquefaction for elderly people, companies providing huge amounts of food and water, Mainfreight providing free trucks to transport it all, people providing helicopters to ship in hot food from outside of the city, people offering their own homes to affected residents from across the country.

In my opinion the response to this disaster by the people of Christchurch shows that it will be rebuilt better than before and will continue to thrive.
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February 27, 2011 11:00am
AlphaKiwi

People making hoax calls for ambulances. What the fuck is wrong with people?

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/8914114/hoax-calls-to-upset-ambulance-service/
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February 27, 2011 11:20am
gravedodger

Beab @ 10 49,
Good point Beab, but a big ask not to rush to your own. Listening to the Ambulance channel on Tuesday afternoon traffic chaos seemed to be an enormous problem but I guess every ones first response is to find yours without any thought as to the contribution to the chaos that is frustrating everyone.
I must say it is hard and brings feelings of guilt to be here only 50 Kms from chaos zero and doing no more than standby, but realistically I am more use as a cog to keep our community safe and let younger more physically equiped go to work. We have contributed crews from our station as reliefs and I understand a group have gone to CHC again today to do cleanup.
Still very hard to actually get head around the enormity of the disaster.
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February 27, 2011 11:21am
nickb

Pretty fucking sick isnt it AK.

Same with this silly bitch:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10709039
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February 27, 2011 11:24am
beautox

It’s in stark contrast to the scenes after the Haiti earthquacke where the locals were largely sitting or standing around waiting for the UN and the international community to “do something” then bitching when the services were not up to scratch.
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February 27, 2011 11:25am
jaba

I see Owen Glenn has donated $1ml
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February 27, 2011 11:30am
Johnboy

Just heard on ZB that all police will be wearing a Huia feather today.

I’d prefer to hear that they were all wearing a Glock.

Still we must start somewhere I suppose. 🙂
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February 27, 2011 11:33am
cubit

I was watching the coverage of the main daily brief on TV1 when it was stopped in midstream to recommence “normal” programming. I then switched to Australian Sky News who continued the broadcast until the brief was complete. TVNZ needs to get a real grip of themselves. They are the public service broadcaster. They should fulfill that role, particulary at these important events during the course of the tradgedy. They have 2 channels.

At this time TV1 should be used to bring constant updating. It doesn’t matter if the “star” fronts people are not available to front it. Give the role to some young and up and coming staff. they will do a good job.
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February 27, 2011 11:40am
AlphaKiwi

@nickb

Yeah, I saw that too. Her mother should have gone through and written that.
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February 27, 2011 11:53am
nasska

BeaB @ 10.49am

My overall opinion of the teaching profession, as a group, being one point removed from shark shit survives largely intact. I do however agree that on an individual basis they would have done everything possible to ensure the safety of the kids in their care. Often it takes severe adversity before we see the good in people. I salute them as individuals.
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February 27, 2011 11:56am
cha

Just heard on ZB that all police will be wearing a Huia feather today.

At $8400 a feather, I doubt it.
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February 27, 2011 12:00pm
starboard

The horror continues..Hulun Klark visiting CHC today to see the mess for herself. Youre not welcome here klarkula…Foxtrot Oscar.
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February 27, 2011 12:04pm
jaba

is Dame Helen involved in the Haiti earthquake recovery in any way. .. maybe she is bringing the expertise here.
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February 27, 2011 12:07pm
wf

🙂 @ johnboy
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February 27, 2011 12:09pm
Johnboy

I suspect it will be a plastic Huia feather cha.

Something to do with a fallen warrior or somesuch PC crap.

Probably uses a bit less plastic than a Glock hence more ecologically acceptible. 🙂

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glock_pistol
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February 27, 2011 12:15pm
Viking2

She will be there to see that the Lab’s get their photo opps as they have severely been missing so far. Only seen Dyson yesterday so far. Neandethall very quiet and who’s left?

Perhaps her jobs on the line in NY and so she’s back for the job interview at Labour HQ.
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February 27, 2011 12:17pm
davidp

starboard>The horror continues..Hulun Klark visiting CHC today to see the mess for herself.

With Aisha Gadaffai, the UNDP Goodwill Ambassador she appointed?
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February 27, 2011 12:21pm
jaba

will be interesting to see what Labour MP’s will be with her
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February 27, 2011 12:22pm
Viking2

Today, police in Christchurch are wearing the feather of the Huia bird, symbolising the loss of a police staff member.

1.45am: Christchurch police area commander Dave Cliff is about to visit the family of the police officer confirmed dead in the quake.

He declined to give details of the dead officer, but said there was “added emotion when one of our own people was involved in the disaster”.
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February 27, 2011 12:23pm
starboard

If I see her I will moon her
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February 27, 2011 12:26pm
Viking2

Perhaps she has come for a ride in the new BMW’s.
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February 27, 2011 12:27pm
Johnboy

“will be interesting to see what Labour MP’s will be with her”

Clayton is there.

Birds of a feather flock together. 🙂
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February 27, 2011 12:29pm
Viking2

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/christchurch-earthquake-videos/news/video.cfm?c_id=1503037&gal_cid=1503037&gallery_id=117008
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February 27, 2011 12:37pm
cha

Fuck the Glock, give em The Judge.
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February 27, 2011 12:40pm
Grizz

At first sighting of Clark and the GG, someone should hand them a shovel and tell them to start slaying some silt. Otherwise they can get lost.
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February 27, 2011 1:00pm
Murray

Clark has no offical capacity there. She should be turned away like all sightseeing disaster tourists.
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February 27, 2011 1:02pm
bereal

cha
i had to laugh at the video advert for the Taurus Judge when the origional 45 cal Judge was modified to also
fire 410 shotgun alternativly with the 45cal rounds. i think it was on Whaleoils site.
“Same Judge. Harsher sentence.”
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February 27, 2011 1:05pm
Courage Wolf

More pressure should be applied to release the names of the victims. I don’t quite understand why they are delaying it for so long. Just speaking what’s on everyone’s mind.
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February 27, 2011 1:09pm
Kevin McCready

Very few of you have touched on the real issue.

Parker and his mates with the 67% building code are responsible for the mounting death toll.

After Sept 2010 quake, Christchurch City Council changed the Earthquake-prone, Dangerous and Insanitary Buildings Policy. The rule changed so that damaged buildings had to be strengthened only up to 67% of Building Code levels. Dangerous chimneys were also exempt!!

Yeah let’s play Russian Roulette. How about this? For every 100 drink drivers in danger of causing death on the roads we throw their names into a hat and 33% get off scott free.

So fix up your shoddy dangerous earthquake prone building but don’t bother fixing it properly. Fix it up to only 67%. Hey we don’t want it to cost too much do we? And don’t put a sign on the outside of your shoddy deathtrap saying “This is STILL a Russian Roulettle building. Enter at your own RISK”
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February 27, 2011 1:14pm
Murray

So you acknowledge that you do not unsderstand the issue CW but you urge speeding the process up.

I’d sugest that making decisions to tell professionals what to do based on ignorance isn;t really a good option. And you are NOT speaking whats on everyones mind, certainly not mine.

They are working through well over a hundred bodies and they have to get a dental match before confirming the idnetity and notify the family BEFORE they release the names.

If you feel you personally have a right to know the assumed names of victims before their families are advised I’ll listen to your argument… but your stating from behind.
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February 27, 2011 1:15pm
XChequer

Can anyone please help?

A mate is a pilot for the effort to feed people in areas cut off by the earthquake by helicopter. They’ve just made an appeal on TV 1 so need to get the word out asap as they are running out of money for fuel for the choppers. The helicopters and pilots are being donated free – the only thing that costs is the fuel.

If you can help by a donation – great! – otherwise if you could help spreed the word. Your support directly affects people right now.

http://thenzhomeoffice.blogspot.com/2011/02/help-needed.html

I know that you have already given and times are tough so any support is appreciated.
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February 27, 2011 1:16pm
dime

are the 300 aussie cops walking around with their glocks on?
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February 27, 2011 1:24pm
Shunda barunda

Can anyone here refute this Ken Ring fulla?

I was extremely sceptical of this guy, but a fellow I know was insistent that I check his ideas out, and I have to say I am kinda disturbed.
The idea of gravitational influences of the moon and planets has scientific merit so it can’t be dismissed out of hand, and reading through his site has got me pretty friggin worried, particularly talk of the Alpine fault going, or some other major quake around the 20th of March.
Some of the stuff on his site just seems like nonsense astrology, but he really does appear to have predicted the last few earthquakes with his theory.
Can anyone refute this stuff?

http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=339&type=home
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February 27, 2011 1:28pm
Kevin McCready

[ok so delete the square brackets and try this]

Very few of you have touched on the real issue.

The old boy network with their 67% building code are responsible for the mounting death toll.

After Sept 2010 quake, Christchurch City Council changed the Earthquake-prone, Dangerous and Insanitary Buildings Policy. The rule changed so that damaged buildings had to be strengthened only up to 67% of Building Code levels. Dangerous chimneys were also exempt!!

Yeah let’s play Russian Roulette. How about this? For every 100 drink drivers in danger of causing death on the roads we throw their names into a hat and 33% get off scott free.

So fix up your shoddy dangerous earthquake prone building but don’t bother fixing it properly. Fix it up to only 67%. Hey we don’t want it to cost too much do we? And don’t put a sign on the outside of your shoddy deathtrap saying “This is STILL a Russian Roulettle building. Enter at your own RISK”
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February 27, 2011 1:29pm
Dave Mann

Ken Ring is probably one of the most misunderstood scientific minds around today. His calculations about the weather (and also earthquakes) are NOT based on nutbar astrology or New Age psychic bullshit at all…. they are actually extremely accurate and detailed calculations of the moon’s orbit around the Earth, and our orbit around the sun – and a scientific evaluation of the changes in the gravitational pulls which result.

Obviously, the actual gravitational forces at play vary enormously because of the relative sizes and positions of the bodies involved, and how they might cancel each out or aggregate together etc. This is the genius of the man, that he has the patience and intelligence to work this all out.

Ken Ring is by no means an idiot and evey time I hear someobody interview him and say “wheee… wow… spooky!” I want to jump up and shake them and tell them to use their fucking BRAINS to evaluate him and not their stupid EMOTIONS to sensationalise what they are failing to understand.
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February 27, 2011 1:51pm
XChequer

You think Ken Ring will make your head spin, check out this post from Tim Selwyn at Tumeke.

http://tumeke.blogspot.com/2011/02/on-taking-of-hints.html
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February 27, 2011 2:01pm
nasska

Shunda Barunda @ 1.28pm

I didn’t know that Ken Ring had branched out into earthquake prediction but I have been reasonably impressed with his long range weather forecasting. I have neither the time or the inclination to keep a day to day comparison of actual weather vs his predictions so I took the easy way out & gave a copy of his book for 2010 to my elderly mother for a Xmas present 15 months ago. Her observation was that although his forecasts for specific days were all over the place his long range forecasts beat any offered by qualified meteorologists.

Unscientific I accept but even as one of the last true cynics I am not in a rush to decry him.
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February 27, 2011 2:02pm
Kevin McCready

[oh dear. can we try this? If not I’d appreciate an email saying why not. kevin1mccready@gmail.com]

Very few of you have touched on the real issue.

Isn’t the 67% building code responsible for the mounting death toll? Who decided it?

After Sept 2010 quake, Christchurch City Council changed the Earthquake-prone, Dangerous and Insanitary Buildings Policy. The rule changed so that damaged buildings had to be strengthened only up to 67% of Building Code levels. Dangerous chimneys were also exempt!!

Yeah let’s play Russian Roulette. How about this? For every 100 drink drivers in danger of causing death on the roads we throw their names into a hat and 33% get off scott free.

So fix up your shoddy dangerous earthquake prone building but don’t bother fixing it properly. Fix it up to only 67%. Hey we don’t want it to cost too much do we? And don’t put a sign on the outside of your shoddy deathtrap saying “This is STILL a Russian Roulettle building. Enter at your own RISK”
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February 27, 2011 2:04pm
Johnboy

Anything that alters the stress’s in the earths crust even by a small amount has to have some effect on earthquakes. After all it was the stress’s from the September event that most likely got this one going.

Look at what the moon does to create the tides then tell me that it has no effect on the earths crust. 🙂
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February 27, 2011 2:06pm
big bruv

Why the hell is Klark addressing the press in Christchurch?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/4709882/Christchurch-quake-latest-updates

Does this woman have no shame at all?, is she that fucking desperate that she has to travel half way around the world to find a camera to stand in front of?
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February 27, 2011 2:12pm
Viking2

# dime (2,945) Says:
February 27th, 2011 at 1:24 pm

are the 300 aussie cops walking around with their glocks on?

Don’t think so but one fellow that they oulled up for stealing grog said they were scary bastards. We need more of them I’d say.
Lessons for our PC types.
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February 27, 2011 2:16pm
Johnboy

“Don’t think so but one fellow that they oulled up for stealing grog said they were scary bastards. We need more of them I’d say.”

Probably hadn’t been issued with their plastic Huia feathers at that point V2. 🙂
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February 27, 2011 2:20pm
Johnboy

“is she that fucking desperate ”

How can you say that after seeing Peter Davis BB. 🙂
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February 27, 2011 2:22pm
Gooner

I think it’s also time to get real. There cannot be any RWC games in ChCh. As soon as this realisation is faced, the better. The Grand Chancellor is going, and I am told the Centra (next to it) is dodgy. The accommodation expectations, and the facilities required, to host 7 games are too much. Time for Martin Snedden to forget the emotion and take action on this, before too many people get their mind set on hosting the games.
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February 27, 2011 2:25pm
Viking2

The press will fawn all over her you watch and see. Like they haven’t had their idol here for a long while. She should piss off back whence she came.
Unless of course the undp or whatever she is boss off is about to refund all the money that we have wasted on that outfit with a $100 mill donation.

What’s the bet that’s what she will do?
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February 27, 2011 2:26pm
Shunda barunda

Very interesting.

I just found this data from the Christchurch quake map site:

http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/dailyEnergy

It shows the total energy of seismic activity and the number of quakes per day, as well as the moon phase.

While there appears to be no direct relationship initially (after the 7.1) you could probably put this down to the normal regional effects of such a large amount of energy being released, and the effect of local stresses equalising.
The interesting thing is this, when the after shock sequence begins to level off (about half way), there is a very noticeable ‘spike’ in energy and frequency of aftershocks around the full moon, culminating in the 6.3 which Ken Ring appears to have predicted.

While the Moon clearly doesn’t ‘drive’ the aftershock sequence, it is possible that it has an influence, and there could be some merit in warning people about the possibility of increased activity, it may even save lives.
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February 27, 2011 2:27pm
Viking2

Gooner. The city landscape will be clear and just right for a tent city complete with latrines and camp beds. What no?
You rugby types gone all sooky and soft eh!
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February 27, 2011 2:30pm
nasska

If ever an argument can be made for atheism it stands before us now. What benevolent god would allow Dear Leader off the plane at Christchurch Airport? Haven’t the people suffered sufficiently?
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February 27, 2011 2:32pm
Thrash Cardiom

Ken Ring and weather predictions for Christchurch in 2006

http://www.limestonehills.co.nz/Down%20On%20The%20Farm/Topics/Ringworld.html
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February 27, 2011 2:32pm
reid

Gooner it isn’t actually time to consider that. Not enough info is in.

Re: accomm, what’s wrong with mooring an ocean liner at Lyttleton for the duration?

You can also bet every single game in ChCh would be a sell-out, now, due to all of us wanting to help in every way.
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February 27, 2011 2:36pm
big bruv

V2

She will not be here to do anything for the people of Christchurch, this trip is all about her and her own political goals.

If she was going to announce an aide package she could have done so from New York, nope, there will be something in this for Klark, she has never done anything for the good of NZ unless it has been for the good of Helen Klark as well.

The sooner she pisses off back to the UN the better.
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February 27, 2011 2:37pm
Gooner

reid, I wouldn’t think the the IRB will allow it. Remember, the IRB controls this, not the NZRFU.
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February 27, 2011 2:39pm
Courage Wolf

# Murray (6,901) Says:
February 27th, 2011 at 1:15 pm

So you acknowledge that you do not unsderstand the issue CW but you urge speeding the process up.

I’d sugest that making decisions to tell professionals what to do based on ignorance isn;t really a good option. And you are NOT speaking whats on everyones mind, certainly not mine.

They are working through well over a hundred bodies and they have to get a dental match before confirming the idnetity and notify the family BEFORE they release the names.

If you feel you personally have a right to know the assumed names of victims before their families are advised I’ll listen to your argument… but your stating from behind.

Excellent attitude sir, you should be on TV because NZ needs more of your anal attitude in this time of need.
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February 27, 2011 2:39pm
BeaB

You silly boys. Helen is here to shake hands with Owen Glenn and thank him for the $1m he has donated to the earthquake appeal.

[DPF: Leave the politics out of the earthquake thread. If you must, do it in general debate. ]
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February 27, 2011 2:48pm
Viking2

Nope he’s not here.
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February 27, 2011 3:01pm
Pete George

To see if Ken Ring has “predicted” specific earthquakes you would have to see how many of his suggested times for quakes prove to be false. As far as I can see all he does is suggest times that an earthquake may by more likely due to gravitational changes. But those gravitational changes are always happening, and earthquakes aren’t. Ring says each month what days it is more likely, that’s all.

And even if the moon was in synch with all quakes it would have no way of predicting exactly where the quakes would occur. The September and latest earthquakes show that a few km can make a huge difference to how damaging a quake will be.

Earthquakes occur frequently in New Zealand (as do moon cycles), just very occasionally they happen to occur near where a lot of people live.
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February 27, 2011 3:37pm
Dirty Rat

I take it that given the recent propensity of Herr Farrar to dish out the demerits, and given that this thread is supposedly abuse, insult free etc etc etc, I trust he will be issuing the points with the vigour of a pissed off traffic warden

[DPF: Yep 20 demerits for calling me Herr Farrar and 20 more for not using the proper e-mail facility to report abuse, but polluting this thread]
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February 27, 2011 3:45pm
BlueDevil

Viking2 (3,459) Says:
February 27th, 2011 at 9:40 am

On the brighter side of thinds doesn’t the IRD have an large office there. You know the one that houses all the collectors etc Guess they will be out of action for a week or two.

No such luck. The building in the background with the lights on is the IRD building.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/image.cfm?c_id=1&gal_cid=1&gallery_id=116925#7381311
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February 27, 2011 3:49pm
Viking2

Oh well, they still won’t be allowed in there to work.

Heatley has just announced that HNZ tenants won’t have to pay there already small amounts of rent. 2500 of them.

PM announces global appeal to raise money for Chch … More soon
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February 27, 2011 4:17pm
reid

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/newzealand/8349280/Christchurch-earthquake-Heroism-endurance-and-tragedy-inside-the-Pyne-Gould-building.html
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February 27, 2011 4:23pm
cubit

David,

In view of the state of emergency having been enacted I believe you are able to now double the demerit points you award to the “looters” of your blog. (could well be instant “internet execution”). Is there a lawyer available to confirm the actual level of authority that Mr Farrar has at this time!
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February 27, 2011 5:22pm
BeaB

Eh? You pinged me after all those comments about Hulun Klark?
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February 27, 2011 5:58pm
Fletch

Ring supposedly gave an accurate prediction of this quake, that he tweeted on Feb 14th –

“Potential earthquake time for the planet between 15th-25th, especially 18th for Christchurch, +/- about 3 days.”

As Shundra says, Ring says another one due on 20th March –

More
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February 27, 2011 6:42pm
Pete George

Ring says another one due on 20th March –

By his reckoning there could be one every full moon, especially at every equinox.

Promoting this sort of thing is very irresponsible, people in Christchurch are fraught enough as it is. Scaremongering about a week in March (+/- about 3 days) is not going to help anyone – on the contrary, what if it it causes a stampede from the city? It will at least raise anxiety levels in parts of an already very anxious population.
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February 27, 2011 7:09pm
ron ohara

Kevin MCready writes “After Sept 2010 quake, Christchurch City Council changed the Earthquake-prone, Dangerous and Insanitary Buildings Policy. The rule changed so that damaged buildings had to be strengthened only up to 67% of Building Code levels. Dangerous chimneys were also exempt!!”

My understanding is that the change that was made was to increase the extent to which older non seismic designed buildings had to comply with the current seismic codes from 33% UP TO 67%. It was infact a doubling of the previous requirement that had been in place for a considerable period of time. It was increased in response to observed damage to buildings that previously had been upgraded.
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February 27, 2011 7:18pm
voice of reason

“Courage Wolf (125) Says:
February 27th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
More pressure should be applied to release the names of the victims. I don’t quite understand why they are delaying it for so long. Just speaking what’s on everyone’s mind”

They could well be delaying releasing some names in order to prevent some scum from finding out addresses and burglarising their homes
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February 27, 2011 7:22pm
voice of reason

“Kevin McCready (3) Says:
February 27th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
……Isn’t the 67% building code responsible for the mounting death toll? Who decided it?………”

You have a point but it would depend on how much of that “reduced standard” remedial work had been done.
Knowing the situation with one of my own and my brothers properties (delays et all) I’d think very little residential work had been completed let alone started.
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February 27, 2011 7:28pm
Shunda barunda

It will at least raise anxiety levels in parts of an already very anxious population.

Well there are good forms of anxiety, I am currently feeling anxiety and it is leading me to discuss with my wife plans to protect ourselves and our children from possible harm.
With the current state of seismic activity in the South Island, anxiety could be one of the best responses at this point, this shit could still get worse.

We have possibly begun a new era of seismic activity and it could be years or decades before it is over.
Even if there is only a small chance this guy is right, I think it is prudent to at least be prepared, anyone in Chch that listened to him prior to last Tuesday is probably very grateful.
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February 27, 2011 7:51pm
Viking2

Plenty apparently couldn’t even be bothered to have a water supply nor a 3 day food supply and gees that’s been around since Adam wore shorts. Too f=====g tired and lazy.
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February 27, 2011 8:03pm
dime

The UFC matched Te Hunas donation to the earthquake fund. Bless em
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February 27, 2011 8:32pm
Pete George

Even if there is only a small chance this guy is right, I think it is prudent to at least be prepared

Evacuate the country every full moon?

Statistics show that in NZ on average there is:
1 7.x earthquake every 3 years (1 per year recently)
2 6.x earthquakes every year (in 1995 there were 7)
2 5.x earthquakes every month (26 average per year, in 2009 there were 56, in 1995 there were 107)

“Predicting” that there could be a significant quake over a 6 day period in a month isn’t difficult, on average you’d be right every second month.
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February 27, 2011 8:42pm
Viking2

Thousands leave Christchurch after quakes

FOR many residents of Christchurch, it was one shake too many.

Thousands of the city’s 350,000 inhabitants have left in droves, flying, driving, even walking away, with no plans to return any time soon.

Experts predict the exodus from Tuesday’s killer 6.3-magnitude earthquake will continue in the weeks and months to come.

With two major jolts in less than six months and more than 5,000 aftershocks in between, people are understandably fed-up with the ground moving beneath their feet.

On top of that, there is a cruel prediction by some that another big one will come.

“We can’t live like this, with the constant shaking,” said Australian Gloria Cotton, 84, who has lived in New Zealand’s second largest city since meeting her Kiwi husband there 15 years ago.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
Related Coverage

* One third of quake city to be demolished Courier Mail, 1 day ago
* Day the earth moved in Christchurch Herald Sun, 1 day ago
* Christchurch quake: As it happened Adelaide Now, 2 days ago
* Quake the worst of natural disasters Adelaide Now, 2 days ago
* The tragic faces of the rubble The Daily Telegraph, 2 days ago

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

“My heart is here, and I feel so heart-broken at the thought of leaving,” the Gold Coast woman said, bursting into tears, “but how can we stay?”

“This is no place to live anymore.”

For Gloria and her husband Len, 83, family were their motivation to leave.

“We’re getting on. I’ve got a heart condition and we’re on pensions. We don’t have the money to fix anything so we’ve got no choice but to go where my children can help us,” Mrs Cotton said.

For Aaron Waine, the loss of family helped him decide.

Mr Waine and his two younger brothers lost their mum Susan Chuter when the (CTV) Canterbury Television building collapsed.

Standing outside the burning building, he said it would be too painful to remain.

“We can’t stay here with this constant horrible reminder of what’s happened here and what we’ve lost,” Mr Waine said.

“It’s too painful. In Aussie or somewhere else we might be able to move on.”

He acknowledged it would be extremely hard financially. “We’ve bought our first home here and what’s it worth now? Nothing. Who will want to buy it? No-one. So who knows when we’ll be able to go.”

For others, it was a decision made in fear.

Irish woman Emily Smith has lived in the city for five years, raising her two girls, aged five months and two years, there. She and her husband said at Christchurch airport that they had a “dark feeling” the February 22 quake wasn’t the last.

“Inside I can’t shake that feeling,” Ms Smith said. “And when you have tiny kids you feel even more vulnerable. We feel we don’t have a choice.”

For many AAP spoke to though, the reason for their exodus was purely financial.

Freelance graphic designer Matthew Bolton said he had to go where the money was “and it’s not here”.

“I’s simple really,” he said before stepping on a plane bound for Auckland. “The Christchurch CBD is knocked out. No-one is going to be thinking about design work for a long time.”

The Canterbury Chamber of Commerce fears many businesses will have the same response, relocating en masse to Wellington, Auckland or other New Zealand cities so they can keep going.

Chief executive Peter Townsend said there were companies with 1000 employees ready to return to work but a lack of basic utilities, an office and, in some cases, demand for their services, was stopping them.

“One of my biggest fears at the moment is flight,” he told New Zealand’s National Business Review on Friday. “People have had enough and I dont want this beautiful city to be compromised because people leave.”

Thankfully for Christchurch a great many people feel like Ryan Burcher.

“I couldn’t leave now,” said the former Sydney man who made the Garden City his home eight years ago.

“I’m leaving for a break, because it’s unlivable at the moment, but we’ll be back for the long haul.

“You can’t let nature put you off.”

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/thousands-leave-christchurch-after-quakes/story-fn3dxity-1226012825514
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February 27, 2011 8:52pm
Shunda barunda

Pete, there have been 1667 earthquakes above mag3 since last September, kinda above the ‘statistical average’.
And who is talking about evacuating the country? Do you think that perhaps there are other less drastic measures we could take?
There is a high probability that we will encounter a cluster of very large (not just “significant”) earthquakes for the next few years, such is the tectonic history of this country.
Actually we already are!
This could go on for 10 years.
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February 27, 2011 9:06pm
Lindsay Addie

The freelance graphic designer quoted in that long article Viking2 posted is in a situation similiar to mine. I’m coming to the end of a full time IT course and had just started looking for IT employment in Chch. The job market for IT will no doubt be very very tight for quite sometime. Within the near future I’ll need to be earning a full time salary in my chosen field (I do now have very good qualifications). I’ve lived here all my life but the realities mean I will have to seriously think of going to Wellington or Auckland.

I’m not scared of the earthquakes and never have been and would not leave for that reason.
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February 27, 2011 9:17pm
Pete George

And who is talking about evacuating the country?

How else do you escape from the possibility of an earthquake. Ring doesn’t and cannot predict where they will happen, just the raised possibility of something happening somewhere. Even down here I’ve heard someone say they don’t want to be in New Zealand in March.

It’s not just full moons he predicts them on, it’s also new moons. For how many moons should people get even more shit scared than they already are? There’s talk the next big one could be Wellington or on the main Southern fault line. Where should people run too every second week?

Look at what he says here.

The closest perigee for 2010 was 30 January. Within the few days following came a 2.9 mag only 10 km north of Hanmer Springs 3kms deep, two 4.5-mag earthquakes in Hawkes Bay, and Fiordland received a mighty 5.1-mag shock 40 km west of Milford Sound that was felt throughout Fiordland and Otago. There were others too, within the week to follow, in Taupo, Manawatu and Bay of Plenty. These events of 2009 and 2010 can now be seen as an early signal that the South Island Alpine Fault region was coming into line for a rough sequence soon to follow.

The gravitational pull of the moon may have some affect on when earthquakes – but, it’s pulling all the time to varying degrees and we have earthquakes all the time to varying degrees.

How many 2.x quakes are there in a year? Geonet don’t say, but there are 1 x 4.x per day on average in the country. He makes a huge leap from a pattern of quakes around the country (that happen all the time anyway) to it being “an early signal that the South Island Alpine Fault region was coming into line for a rough sequence soon to follow”. Read the quote above again and see how vague it actually is.

And, ah, there are other countries that are under the moon’s influence. Where have all the big earthquakes been in Samoa, Chile, Indonesia, Pakistan, LA and SF, Haiti etc lately? Why NZ? Why Christchurch?
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February 28, 2011 6:53am
Shunda barunda

Pete, I am not a Ken Ring worshipper, I can accept what you are saying.
But I also think we need to realise that the study of earthquakes is not all that refined or understood as well as other fields are. When the earth moves in this country, historically it has often kept moving for some years with multiple very large earthquakes.
Geologists warned after the 7.1 in Fiordland that these things often happen in clusters and that is exactly what we are now experiencing.
This guy Ken Ring is suggesting that a gravitational alignment of several planets and the moon phase may trigger another event, which is a scientific possibility.
Given the current activity I hardly think this guy is doing any harm.
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February 28, 2011 9:29am
Pete George

Given the current activity I hardly think this guy is doing any harm.

Many people are scared shitless. He’s promoting diarrhoea.

Twice this morning I have heard similar to this:

I’m sure you will all see many CHCH people in your areas for quite some time, as many are just moving away, either short term or for good. The line of cars with trailers loaded to the hilt was surreal, we have never seen the like before.

(from an email from a Christchurch colleague)

Many are already leaving Christchurch. It won’t take much to encourage a heap more.
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February 28, 2011 9:36am
Shunda barunda

Pete, I think the ground shaking for 6 months is probably the reason, not Ken Ring.
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February 28, 2011 9:49am

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