January 1, 2011 12:36pm by David Farrar

The Fairfax 2011 predictions

They are here:

1 National will form a government after the November 26 election. (Note the dangerously specific date).

Agree, on date and outcome.

2 Botany will be a Clayton’s by-election and we don’t mean Cosgrove. National’s candidate will be anointed and Labour will hardly bother to campaign, preferring to keep its cash in the bank for the election.

Not so sure. By-elections can be un-predictable for a Government.

3 Judith Collins will become defence minister after the retirement of Wayne Mapp. Without tanks she could be a useful addition to our arsenal.

Very possible.

4 Mercurial NZ First leader Winston Peters will stand in an inner-Auckland seat to maximise coverage of his bid to return to Parliament. Possibly Epsom, but more likely Tamaki, where he can mobilise any remnants of Sir Robert Muldoon’s “Rob’s Mob” voters and cash in on sitting MP Allan Peachey’s low profile.

I think Tamaki is more likely than Epsom. His old seat of Hunua can’t be ruled out though. He won’t win an electorate though.

5 The Maori Party will not improve its current tally of five seats – a punt.

Probably not, unless Parekura retires then maybe pick that up.

6 MMP will survive the referendum, meaning a second one will not be necessary. But there will be a clamour to change some of the existing features of MMP.

I agree, unless the Government has its coalition partners disintegrate in 2011.

7 Labour president Andrew Little will not win New Plymouth, but will get into Parliament on the list.

I won’t make a prediction here on New Plymouth, except to observe that for Andrew to win he will need around 20% of National party voters to give him their electorate vote. I agree Andrew will be in Parliament regardless of the New Plymouth outcome.

8 Labour will campaign on a new top tax rate on income above $120,000 a year.

Yep – the starting rate may vary but will be at least $100k. The return of Cullen’s rich prick tax.

9 The Government’s popularity will drop mid-year as the rising cost of living, slow economic recovery and cuts in public spending usher in a mild winter of discontent.

It is inevitable that poll ratings of mid 50s will not translate into an election result.

10 Labour leader Phil Goff will survive till the election, but not long after.

By the end of 2012 there will be a new leader – David Cunliffe

11 Kris Faafoi’s majority in Mana will rebound in line with Labour’s traditional dominance in the seat.

I don’t think it will rebound as much as people think.

12 The Greens will beat their 6.72 per cent share of the vote from 2008 and bring in at least one fresh female face.

Probably yeah.

13 National will campaign on partial listings of minority stakes in some state assets including some of the bigger SOEs.

Hope so.

14 Steven Joyce will take over the education portfolio.

After the 2011 election, could well be.

15 The Maori Party will hold its nose and see the new foreshore and seabed law into force despite Hone Harawira’s opposition.

They’ll be irrelevant if they decide to stay with the status quo.

16 Georgina te Heu Heu and Sandra Goudie will signal an end to their political careers.

Would be surpised if either stand in 2011

17 This has been our hardest pick but on balance we think Rodney Hide will hold on to ACT’s Epsom lifeline – though we say so with our heart in our mouth given the signals from even Mr Hide’s Right-wing supporters that they are not convinced the souffle can rise twice.

I think he will, but it will depend on ACT having its shit together enough that people think they will get three or four MPs at least, who can work together.

18 Revenue Minister and UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne will finally realise his haircut is his biggest electoral liability and change it – or even admit it is a hairpiece.

Ha – never.

19 Another senior Labour MP will announce they are bailing out of politics at the next election – and unlike the retirement of George Hawkins and Pete Hodgson, this one will be a surprise.

Parekura would not be a surprise. Perhaps they mean Mallard?