January 1, 2011 12:20pm by David Farrar

Scoring the Fairfax 2010 predictions

I always admire Fairfax gallery staff for having the balls to make some predictions every year, and be judged on them. They have just self-scored their 2010 predictions and marked it as 128/100 – down from 145 in 2009 and 138 in 2008.

The story does not appear to be online, so no link, but here is the summary:

  1. The Government will play follow- the-leader with Australia’s tax reform plans, putting business tax cuts at the top of its reform agenda. 4/10
  2. There will be ructions in ACT and at least one of its MPs will signal an end to their political career. 10/10.
  3. Hone Harawira will be trouble. 10/10.
  4. Jim Anderton will not announce an end to his parliamentary career. 0/10.
  5. Prime Minister John Key’s “elegant” solution to the foreshore and seabed issue will turn out to be another way to write the same law, with minor tweaks, that Labour passed. 10/10
  6. The Government will signal partial asset sales will be part of its 2011 election campaign. 8/10
  7. Chris Carter will be relieved of the Labour foreign affairs role and his frontbench seat. 10/10
  8. Former Green MP Sue Bradford will run for the Auckland super- city council. 0/10.
  9. 9 The national standards fight will end in a points victory to the Government over education unions. 8/10.
  10. John Key will have a White House meeting with US President Barack Obama, but will make a second trip to Washington too. 5/10.
  11. Labour will struggle to get its poll rating over 35 per cent, although Phil Goff will survive as leader. 10/10.
  12. Two National MPs will announce their retirement from politics. 10/10.
  13. The economic outlook and Budget deficit will keep improving, lowering the forecast debt mountain. 0/10.
  14. John Key will reshuffle his ministers, or have a reshuffle forced on him. 8/10.
  15. The Government will put a woman in a top advisory role. 10/10.
  16. The Australia-New Zealand income gap will widen again. 10/10.
  17. The Government will water down or even scrap the requirement for ACC to be fully funded by 2019. 0/10.
  18. Labour’s Rick Barker will signal his retirement. 0/10.
  19. The 2010 Budget will make Bill English’s 2009 effort look like a lolly scramble. 7/10.
  20. John Key will admit, at least once, to not being “relaxed”. 8/10.

I thought they did very well with (2) and (7) as both were very specific and occured. Hopefully the full article will appear online as the commentary with the scoring is amusing.