Final TV3 poll of the year
TV3 just broadcast their final political poll of the year. The TV3 poll is the one that was the most accurate in the 2008 election.
The % vote and seats are:
- National 55.5%, 68 (+10)
- Labour 31.2%, 39 (-4)
- Greens 7.3%, 9 (nc)
- Maori 1.7%, 5 (nc)
- ACT 1.3%, 2 (-3)
- United 0.1%, 1 (nc)
The Preferred PM race has got tight again. Goff led Clark by 5.1% in October but in December the gap has closed to just 1.5%. Of course Clark has not been an MP for the last 18 months. Key is 47.3% ahead as Preferred PM
In terms of approval ratings Key has a net positive rating of +65.1% and Goff has a net negative rating of -8.6%. Only 11% of all voterss said Key is doing a poor job.
The 24% lead National has over Labour is unprecedented two years into a first term. The comparisons are:
- Dec 1986 – Govt lead was 12%
- Dec 1992 – Govt trailed by 7%
- Dec 2001 – Govt lead was 6%
National MPs are genuinely concerned that Labour may roll Goff. It is not probable, but this is the danger period from now until Feb 2011.