iPredict on Mana

iPredict has just launched some Mana vote share stocks.

They predict:

• Faafoi 45.0%
• Parata 35.4%
• Others 22.0%

Is the markets are correct, what does that suggest in terms of a result.

In 2008, there were almost 35,000 votes so if turnout is the same, then that is a 3,500 or so majority.

If turnout drops from 83% to 65%, then that would suggest a majority of 2,800 or so.

It will be interesting to see how accurate iPredict is. There have been no public polls at all, so people must be investing on the basis of their sentiment over how the race is going. Obviously people think Labour will lose votes – that Faafoi will get around 8% less than Laban, but they may be wrong.