One in three chance of a further crash

The Herald reports:

There is still a one-in-three chance of another crash, says Standard and Poor’s global chief economist David Wyss.

“The recession is over but it is a half-speed recovery,” he told a Breakfast With the Economists gathering in Auckland yesterday.

“We have now had four quarters of growth in all the major economies but we are crawling out of recession. And a slow recovery is a fragile recovery.”

Among the risks was the perennial one of another oil shock emanating from the Middle East.

“Another is the financial markets. Europe seems to be settling down but there is still a lot of debt in what we are now supposed to call the ‘olive belt.”‘

I’m surprised he only rates it one in three. I reckon it might even be one in two when you look at how weak the US recovery is also. The saving grace may be Asia.