General Debate 4 August 2010

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Mr Magister

It was pointed out to me yesterday that my former screen name, Colonel Masters, had the capcity to mislead people into thinking I was Lt Col John Masters, the existence of whom I was unaware of when choosing my WordPress login in September 2007.

To avoid confusion I will henceforth be known as Mr Magister.
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August 4, 2010 8:05am
krazykiwi

Hello World

(Um, it’s a kinda ‘geek handshake’)
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August 4, 2010 8:06am
m@tt

Winnie’s obviously not so bad after all.
Key hints at NZ First deal if Peters stands
Key does not rule out working with NZ First

It’s nice to have flexible principles.
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August 4, 2010 8:25am
mickysavage

I see Winnie is coming home to National. He will feel much more comfortable in coalition with National. His attacks on immigrants and NZFirst’s refusal to believe in climate change should make him feel right at home.

[DPF: You’re mad. It is your beloved Labour Party that fell over itself defending him last term in Government, and who are wanting him to get back in, as that is their only chance of Government. You should be ashamed of them, but hey you’re a loyalist right]
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August 4, 2010 8:31am
pdm

mickey – your lot couldn’t get him to pay back the $158,000 perhaps John Key will be more motivated towards this.
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August 4, 2010 8:33am
hj

The Green Party warned today the ownership of New Zealand’s oil outside the 12 nautical mile limit may turn out to be the “biggest Maori land grab in New Zealand history”.
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/politics/117291/greens-cite-potential-seabed-mineral-claims
http://www.3news.co.nz/Greens-cite-potential-for-seabed-mineral-claims/tabid/419/articleID/167018/Default.aspx?ArticleID=167018
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August 4, 2010 8:42am
Peter

What happened to the CTU post?
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August 4, 2010 8:44am
Viking2

Here’s the deal (well Keys a dealer isn’t he?)
Pay up the membership fee of $158000 plus interest and we will wipe the bad -debt and allow you to trade with us again!
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August 4, 2010 8:55am
Inventory2

@ mickysavage – completed your Te Atatu nomination yet? One News reckoned you were in like; whoops, mean WITH a shot.
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August 4, 2010 9:08am
Inventory2

mickysavage said “His attacks on immigrants and NZFirst’s refusal to believe in climate change should make him feel right at home.”

WHAT?????? Labour’s ETS only passed because it was supported by NZ First. From Hansard

A party vote was called for on the question, That the Climate Change Response (Emissions Trading) Amendment Bill and the Electricity (Renewable Preference) Amendment Bill be now read a third time.
Ayes 63 New Zealand Labour 49; New Zealand First 7; Green Party 6; Progressive 1.
Noes 57 New Zealand National 47; Māori Party 4; United Future 2; ACT New Zealand 2; Independents: Copeland, Field.
Bills read a third time.

So I’m calling “bullshit” on you micky. You can’t re-write history on this one. History on this issue is written in Hansard for perpetuity.
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August 4, 2010 9:17am
kowtow

Pacific Forum’s on and Fiji not invited,so Frank Bainimarama is in the news.

Why do so many of our TV and radio readers insist on saying inBainimarama when pronouncing his name?
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August 4, 2010 9:24am
MikeNZ

The Foreshore and seabed is owned by all New Zealanders collectively through the Crown.
Not one racial group but all of us.
National and John Key has had no mandate to change that and neither has the Supreme Court.
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August 4, 2010 9:33am
MikeNZ

http://www.3news.co.nz/Former-NZ-PM-to-head-Gaza-flotilla-raid-inquiry/tabid/419/articleID/168865/Default.aspx

I don’t see Sir Geoff sorting out the offenders over the Gaza Flotilla as he can’t deal to the offenders in the Liquor probe by recommending A drunk in public which would.
I think it’s bollocks to nail a bar manager for serving a drunk person if you’re not going to hold them accountable for being drunk in public in the first place..
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August 4, 2010 9:36am
slightlyrighty

Winston has managed to couple xenophobia and supporting the elderly.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/3988022/Foreigners-made-rich-by-elderly-Peters
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August 4, 2010 9:41am
Inventory2

The Dom-Post give Phil Goff a good kicking this morning:

Far from looking strong and decisive, Mr Goff looks hasty and ill-considered. He has outmanoeuvred himself.

Poor Phil; damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t!

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2010/08/dom-post-on-phil.html
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August 4, 2010 9:44am
peterwn

The poor former Feltex directors want compensation following their acquittal on the Companies Office charges in court. I can extend them some sympathy, but they are in the same situation as everyone else who faces court charges and acquitted. They do not get compensation unless the prosecution is ‘malicious’ which is extremely rare. I have in mind my favourite hobbyhorse – the police dog handler accused of assault with the dog who faced a trial and re-trial. He was suspended and his police dog was taken away and re-assigned. It put his marriage under stress. The worst he had done was to be a bit economical on the paperwork after the incident – which was why I think he was charged. Crown Law most probably advised the Police that the charge would fall flat on its face unless they could successfully bullshit the jury. The police officer was acquitted.

I do not think that he got any compensation – in fact I very much doubt he is still in the Police. All because of some little **** (the ‘victim’ of the ‘assault’) who is probably still stealing vehicles to support his drug habit during the periods when he is out of jail.

So if the Feltex directors think they have a case for compensation – they should realise it will open the floodgates for many claims.
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August 4, 2010 10:04am
hj

I’m a “NZ first” supporter in the sense that I believe our lifestyle is forsale . But I see Winston as a very blunt instrument.
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August 4, 2010 10:11am
Murray

mickeysavage, the voice of reason.

The reason that labour will lose the next election.
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August 4, 2010 10:14am
Put it away

Never been one to let facts get in the way, eh mickey ?
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August 4, 2010 10:25am
Inventory2

mickysavage? mickysavage? Anyone seen mickysavage?
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August 4, 2010 10:37am
Jack5

In case anyone missed it, in the “Rt Hons” thread yesterday, “Colonel Masters” in posts at 3.57 and 5.11 finally advised that he wasn’t Lt Colonel John Masters, as many posters, including me, had assumed.

The bogus “Colonel Masters” can of course adopt any nom-de-plume he likes, but it was pretty rough of him to let us believe for so long that we were supporting in posts the Borneo war hero, last NZ Vietnam commander, and general champion of NZ Vietnam vets.

He picked up my post pretty quickly in yesterday’s thread, and I don’t see how he could possibly have missed the posts being made by me, by old comrades, by supporters and by those generally concerned about the real Lt Col. Masters’ battle with cancer.
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August 4, 2010 10:45am
hj

Funny I’m making a comment on Frogblog; before the countdown has finished it gets a thumbs down! Still I shouldn’t be too surprised I suppose.
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August 4, 2010 10:45am
backster

PETERWN:………What struck me about these wealthy Feltex directors all of whom had accountancy qualifications, while full of sorrow for their own plight didn’t show any commiseration for the shareholders who lost hundreds of millions in the short period that they had lodged their money in the trust of the directors. The judge seemed to place a lot of faith in an English Case of 1901 at which date I would imagine most English Companies had boards based on lineage and association rather than expertise.
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August 4, 2010 11:01am
Inventory2

Jack5 – did you miss this at the top of today’s GD?

# Mr Magister (375) Says:
August 4th, 2010 at 8:05 am

It was pointed out to me yesterday that my former screen name, Colonel Masters, had the capcity to mislead people into thinking I was Lt Col John Masters, the existence of whom I was unaware of when choosing my WordPress login in September 2007.

To avoid confusion I will henceforth be known as Mr Magister.

FWIW, I had no knowledge of Lt Colonel John Masters until fairly recently either. I strongly doubt that Mr Magister meant any offence.
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August 4, 2010 11:06am
Jack5

Re Inventory 2 at 11.06:

Yes I did miss that entry. Thank you.

It’s fortunate that the matter has been cleared up. It would have been regrettable if the misconception persisted and (hopefully many years ahead) the real Colonel Masters died, condolences were offered, and then the shadow “Colonel Masters” popped up.
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August 4, 2010 11:27am
Jimbob

Anybody investing in companies that have any of those Feltex directors on the board, need their head read. People need to vote with their feet. Another pet hate is the media trying to explain a days trading in the equity or currency markets. They try to pick up on a news item that fits the movement in a particular market. Well news does not run the stock market, it is unconscious herding of the investors in that market. All you need to do is look at a chart of the Dow and when major news items are released, the news items make no difference to the trend already in place.
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August 4, 2010 11:32am
Put it away

Jeez, rough few weeks for the leftards. Mickey Savage caught bullshitting, Luc Hands-on gone awol after making a complete cock of himself, phool banned for his venomous idiocy. Fun times ! Who’s next to vote themselves off the island ?
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August 4, 2010 12:01pm
Ed Snack

I always though “Col Masters” took his name after the British Gurkha officer and author, Lt Colonel John (Jack) Masters of the IV Gurkhas, died 1983. Books include a three part autobiography (fascinating glimpse of the time) plus a number of novels of varying quality, but generally readable with a sometimes good understanding of India and Indians, and for that matter of war and warfare.
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August 4, 2010 12:07pm
djg

I thought it was taken from a board game, Colonel Masters, in the study, with a candle stick.
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August 4, 2010 1:36pm
Jack5

Friday morning! Laws v. Karam on Radio Live. I won’t miss that.
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August 4, 2010 1:41pm
Jack5

Re Ed Snack at 12.07…

I’m surprised you hadn’t heard of Lt Col John Masters, the Kiwi soldier. The Masters you speak of (Bhowani Junction, Nightrunners of Bengal etc) is of course also well known in NZ.

But our John Masters is a good man and distinguished himself fighting for NZ abroad in two theatres. Our colonel won a medal for his rescue of a senior Gurkha NCO behind the Indonesian lines in the Borneo jungle. Interesting, the Gurkha link.

He has become well known in more recent decades for his long fight on behalf of NZ Vietnam vets.
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August 4, 2010 1:48pm
Jibbering Gibbon

It was pointed out to me yesterday that my screen name, Jibbering Gibbon, had the capcity to mislead people into thinking I was a chattering monkey of limited intelligence, a fact of which I was aware when choosing my WordPress login in July 2010.

To avoid confusion, nothing will change.
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August 4, 2010 1:56pm
Murray

Hey look at that I missed phool being banned (again).

Apprently I didn’t miss him at all.

JG hows that script for Hamlet coming along?
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August 4, 2010 2:21pm
RightNow

I doubt Key will deal with NZ First if Winston is leading it. Most likely Key’s bottom line would be no portfolio for Winston. Keep him off the baubles.
mickeypresland, what would your bottom line be dealing with Winston?
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August 4, 2010 2:45pm
Akaroa

Hey!

Jibbering Gibbon at 1.56pm!

L&L&LOL!!
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August 4, 2010 4:03pm
Nookin

So maybe the system is not as corruptly “anti-dad” as Dad opines

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3989879/Winz-fraud-mum-jailed-dad-spared
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August 4, 2010 4:05pm
Guy Fawkes

Micky Savage last seen doing that job of turning an overgrown lollipop at a roadworks, like how much sense does that make when just about every single roadworks in Europe has automatic sensing robot portable traffic lights with variable time programmes that also ‘report in’ to a central processor in order to keep traffic flowing as much as possible.

Very cheap technology, cheaper than surly attendants, and much more reliable!
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August 4, 2010 8:36pm
kaya

From Addison Wiggan – another outlook on the “market”.

“Here’s a myth we’d like to smash. It’s the one about how America stopped being a manufacturing economy and became a “service” economy.

The truth is found in figures like these:

* In the late 1960s, the finance sector accounted for around 20% of corporate profits. Just before the onset of the financial crisis, it was 40%.
* Financial stocks made up 13% of the S&P 500 in 1999. Just before the onset of the financial crisis, it was 22%.

Call it the “financialization” of the economy.

The root of the problem is the nature of investing itself – at least, the public form of investing, as practiced by most investors and as tempted by Wall Street. The idea of it is that a man can get rich without actually working or coming up with an insight or an invention by careful study or dumb luck. All he has to do is put his money “in the market” by handing it over to Wall Street, and poof! – by some magic never fully described it comes back to him tenfold.

Too often in the last couple of years, it’s felt as if Wall Street’s hocus-pocus has had the opposite result – collapsing wealth tenfold. We see it happening all over – in sovereign debt, municipal debt, even the gold market.

In yesterday’s edition of The Daily Reckoning, I explained why municipal bonds, in general are a bad bet. The numbers just don’t add up. Municipal finances have become as ugly – and as unsustainable – as the federal government’s. Municipal obligations are simply too large, relative to current and (likely) future revenues. It is a classic “train wreck.”

All this being said, betting against municipal bonds, or funds of muni bonds, is a bad idea for most investors.

Most of the closed-end funds and ETFs that hold municipal bonds pay monthly or quarterly dividends. Which means that a short seller of those securities would have to cover them while they wait for their bet to pan out. And the muni breakdown could be months away, if not years.

Also, when muni funds do suffer, the fallout may not be as dramatic as the housing bust.

Even if you manage to pick the right municipal bond to short, it’s tough to make money. Take an ETF of Californian muni bonds (CMF). You’d think it would have suffered terribly over the last few years. But it never fell more than 20% during the worst of the credit crisis.

Furthermore, financially stressed municipalities pull all kinds of strings to avoid actually defaulting. It’s an all-too-common practice for cities and states to rescue failing projects (with taxpayer money) to prevent the repercussions of a bond default.

Those wishing to bet against muni bonds – the fates of local and state balance sheets – are better served shorting companies that hold a large portfolio of municipal bonds or those that are in the business of insuring munis. The latter category means the monolines like MBIA, AMBAC and Financial Guaranty.

As for the former, organizations with large portfolios of municipal bonds, one in particular comes to mind. It has a notoriously opaque business and balance sheet. It’s a bailed out, flailing company that also holds the world’s second largest portfolio of American municipal bonds…

AIG.

“AIG holds approximately $48.6 billion of tax-exempt and taxable securities issued by a wide number of municipal authorities across the US and its territories,” its latest 10-K boasts. “The average credit quality of these issuers is A+.” It continues…

Currently, several states, local governments and other issuers are facing pressures on their budget revenues from the effects of the recession and have had to cut spending and draw on reserve funds. Consequently, several municipal issuers in AIG’s portfolios have been downgraded one or more notches by the rating agencies.

The most notable of these issuers is the State of California, of which AIG holds approximately $1.1 billion of general obligation bonds and which at Dec. 31, 2009, was also the largest single issuer in AIG’s municipal finance portfolio. Nevertheless, despite the budget pressures facing the sector, AIG does not expect any significant defaults in portfolio holdings of municipal issuers.

In our opinion, these two paragraphs alone warrant intense suspicion. AIG holds tens of billions in munis, and with an average rating of A+, a lot of them aren’t very good. The company’s stake is so big that the fate of muni bonds and AIG is intertwined.

In a company presentation to the Treasury Department, AIG warned, “A forced sale of AIGCI’s investment portfolio would significantly stress the US municipal bond market.” In short, if munis fall, so does AIG… and vice versa. Gravity, it seems, is tugging at both.

“AIG has no common shareholder equity remaining on its balance sheet,” famous short seller Steve Eisman proclaimed at Grant’s 2010 spring investment conference. “It would likely be insolvent if not for government support.”

Eisman, subject of Michael Lewis’ book The Big Short, publicly announced his shorting campaign against AIG in early April. He’s famous for nailing the subprime bust, netting his hedge fund clients ungodly amounts of money. Eisman is also often cited as mentor to Meredith Whitney, the analyst who so spectacularly called out bank stocks in 2008.

Eisman has built an argument against AIG almost as complicated and difficult to comprehend as AIG itself. We’d boil it down to this:

* AIG, by Eisman’s estimation, carries over $124 billion in debt, even taking into consideration the possible sale proceeds of its best units.
* The business itself, says Eisman, is worth $88 billion.
* The government owns 79.9% of AIG, which it hopes to sell as soon as possible.
* Shares of AIG have soared in the last year, from $6.60 in March 2009 to just under $40 today.

Factor in a $48 billion portfolio of muni bonds we think are suspect (at best) and you’ve got a fine case for shorting AIG.

Of course, betting against AIG is not a sure thing. The principal risk is the government. It has saved AIG from bankruptcy once. There’s no guarantee it won’t do it again. The Treasury could lend more money or forgive AIG’s debt. The Fed could give greater access to lending facilities. We feel, however, that the public ire toward both AIG and taxpayer bailouts is so strong the government will offer AIG more support only under extreme circumstances.

So with the caveat that this is only for the adventurous, you might consider short-selling AIG, say, above $40 a share. Fair warning: It’s a “crowded short.” Your broker may have trouble locating shares to borrow. But Dan Amoss of Strategic Short Report agrees with Steve Eisman’s scenario: The government will convert its preferred shares to common stock – massively diluting existing shareholders and driving down the share price. Still, don’t expect this to occur until after the midterm elections in November.

Even if you don’t short, AIG, beware munis!”

Aye.
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August 4, 2010 9:03pm
Viking2

Here’s message for many Kiwi’s.

Trade surplus soars to record $3.5bn thanks to mining exports. AUSTRALIA posted its biggest monthly trade surplus on record in June, fueled by surging mining exports.

The bumper trade position sent a strong signal that growth across the commodity-rich economy will be buoyant over the medium term.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/trade-surplus-soars-to-a-record-35bn-thanks-to-mining-exports/story-e6frg926-1225901091077
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August 4, 2010 9:18pm
krazykiwi

@Viking2 – that message is for Kiwi’s living in Australia. The snails here thank us for our preparedness to endure hardship on their account.
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August 4, 2010 9:34pm

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