General Debate 5 April 2010

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Falafulu Fisi

Why Did Economists Fail to Predict the Crisis?

Perhaps the most accurate would be: Too much reliance on (incomplete & inappropriate) mathematical models, thus ignoring commonsense

Umm! Does this sound similar to warmists and their supporters who worship their Global Climate Models, which they over-rely on those results as somehow word/gospel of GOD?
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April 5, 2010 8:46am
Michael

Economists didn’t miss the crisis, they just under-estimated it. There was a general awareness that a speculative boom was occuring, and that boom would have to end.

Scientists are generally right about their climate models, talk to one and they admit that there is varibility in the effects. What pisses them off is that politicians and political groups hijack anything they say and global warming is an immediate global catastophe for political ends.

I suspect that the alarmist political movement bubble has been burst by climategate emails – a bit more rational debate might ensue. But then it probably won’t.
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April 5, 2010 8:53am
Viking2

About as accurate as out Treasury and our bank economists. Say what they like to suit themselves based on poor quality information and predict what the like because no one bothers to haul them up in public and say “you told us this would happen but the opposite is the result.” Unaccountable like so many other drop kicks.
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April 5, 2010 8:57am
Viking2

Economists.

Yep says Treasury we are going to beat up the landlords. Good we await with glee.
Rents to skyrocket.
Timber prices to rise 15% in the next few weeks. House building costs to increase dramatically. Result, few new houses.
Want to know why.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3546879/Chinese-demand-raises-log-prices

Oh and if you think steel frames will substitute consider the huge leap in iron ore and coal prices the Chinese have had to pay the Australians in the last couple of weeks.

And just to add insult to injury the Reserve Bank are forcing banks to increase interest rates and restricting their ability to lend.
Because,; well we apparently spend too much money on houses.
Not according to DR Don. His report showed we were right in the middle of the OECD average.
Economists, I ask you. what useless species of homo whatevers.
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April 5, 2010 9:05am
philu

“..I suspect that the alarmist political movement bubble has been burst by climategate emails..”

i ‘suspect’..that you ‘suspect’ wrong..eh..?

i think you need to read this..

(it is the results of the house of commons enquiry into phil jones/climategate..eh..?)

“..The British House of Commons today issued a report exonerating Professor Phil Jones, the director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

Dr. Jones was embroiled in controversy following the theft of internal emails and documents from the University’s servers in November of last year.

The report states that “the focus on CRU and Professor Phil Jones, Director of CRU, in particular, has largely been misplaced,” ..

..and that Dr. Jones’s actions were “in line with common practice in the climate science community,” ..

.. and the CRU’s “analyses have been repeated and the conclusions have been verified.”

The review by the House of Commons’ Science and Technology Committee began in January in the wake of the ‘Climategate’ media frenzy.

While the committee’s report recommends that climate scientists should seek to improve transparency in their work, release raw data when possible, and provide more detail on their methodologies ..

.. the committee firmly concludes that there was no dishonesty on the part of Dr. Jones and the CRU.

The committee compared the results of other independent analyses of climate data to that of the CRU ..

..and found that they are consistent .. and independently verifiable..”

http://whoar.co.nz/2010/phil-jones-exonerated-by-british-house-of-commons/

did you get that..?..has that cleared that up for you..?

..or will you just keep repeating that lie..?

..y’know what..?

..i’m picking you’ll pick option 2..eh..?..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 9:06am
cha

Teabonics
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April 5, 2010 9:11am
LeftRightOut

Economists have successfully predicted 37 of the last 3 recessions.
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April 5, 2010 9:13am
philu

and once again..absolute (revisionist)/lying bullshit..

“..Economists didn’t miss the crisis, they just under-estimated it…”

yes they did..’miss the crisis’..

the likes of ‘dr doom’..and others i linked to at whoar..from 2006…

(‘dr doom’..btw..the perjorative/scoffing nickname given him by the sceptical media/other ‘experts’..)

..were scoffed at by the ‘real’ economists…

..and the farrars..and his acolytes..

(..remember .?…there..?..dpf..?..)

“..There was a general awareness that a speculative boom was occuring, and that boom would have to end..”

you wouldn’t know that from reading the irrational euphoria/optimism from those ‘real economist-experts’..

..almost right up to things going pear-shaped..

who can forget the (in hindsight hilarious) ‘predictions’..from our very own ‘experts’..

..at treasury..?

..eh..?

..whoar..!

(‘holy-so-far-off-the-mark-to-be-not-even-in-the same-city..let-alone-ball-park..!..batman..!’..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 9:17am
cha

Deep Climate has a post on the findings of the Science and Technology Committee:

Climategate investigations, round 1
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April 5, 2010 9:18am
Chuck Bird

NZCPR Guest Forum
Amy Brooke
3 April 2010
100 Days – Claiming Back New Zealand

http://www.nzcpr.com/guest188.htm

Restoring democracy to New Zealand that has been total lost since the introduction of MMP should be a priority. We used to have a form of representative democracy under FPP where MPs to some degree were answerable to the electorate. Under MMP MPs are only answerable to their party leader.
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April 5, 2010 9:20am
reid

What matters to politicians phil is public perception, period.

And the public now have the perception that maybe just maybe the climate change emperors have no clothes. And no politician except the idiot ones are going to stake their entire career on selling something that costs trillions in global terms, without a solid foundation.

I suspect the media will play their usual useful role in gradually convincing people that there is in fact ‘nothing to see here’ and you can see them starting to do that now. The various govt agencies are also playing their part.

Copenhagen was a bust, but unfortunately just a temporary setback to the new religion. Meanwhile the useful idiot brigade continue their mindless braying about how it actually really is truly real, really… What these fools don’t seem to understand is that their braying is promoting the very vehicle that is establishing the very thing they spend so much time protesting against at the IMF forums. Their idiocy is indeed profound.
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April 5, 2010 9:27am
philu

reid..did you not read that report..?..from the house of commons..?

you just blithely carry on..as if these words had not been utteredby that commons-committee..

“..the CRU’s “analyses have been repeated and the conclusions have been verified.”

(did you get that..?..do you need to read/say that slowly..?..for it to sink in..?)

and then try this:..

the committee firmly concludes that there was no dishonesty on the part of Dr. Jones and the CRU.

The committee compared the results of other independent analyses of climate data to that of the CRU ..

..and found that they are consistent .. and independently verifiable..”

(once again..read/say slowly…(it might help..eh..?..to get it to sink in..eh..?..)

oh..!..hang on..!..that commons-committee could be part of the great-global-conspiracy..eh..?

better sound the alarm..!..eh..?..)

..fools..!

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 9:40am
reid

phil, are you telling me that warmists really want a global agency with responsibility for imposing sanctions on non-compliant nations?

I see.

So why do you guys bother protesting about globalisation then, because that’s what this is going to be, or haven’t you guys thought that far ahead. How else do you think climate change regulation is going to work? Does it involve guitars, dancing gaily and maypoles perhaps?

And BTW, hasn’t it occurred to you that the one thing that politicians really really want is an extension to their power base so why wouldn’t govt committees the world over lie in unison over this new and tewwible thweat?
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April 5, 2010 9:53am
philu

gee..!..you’d be head-lining this truth/result/outcome/overturning of common misapprehensions..?..eh….?

..wouldn’t you .?..d.p.f..?

i mean..you did devote more than a few headlines to the original accusations/’black’-spin-campaign..eh..?

..it’sd only be ‘right’..to put that ‘right’..eh..?

(should i start holding my breath now..?..

..oh..!..hang on..!..that might piss off those who ‘pay’ you..eh..?.

…can’t have that..eh..?..)

(holy-possible-lost-pickings-from-the-trough..!..batman..!.)

phil(whoar.co .nz)
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April 5, 2010 9:54am
Redbaiter

” Does it involve guitars, dancing gaily and maypoles perhaps? ”

..and Maryjane and sandals.
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April 5, 2010 9:56am
philu

and..btw..reid..hasn’t it occured to you..that yr ‘global-control-paranoias have you insuch a grip..

..that you are(apparantly) blind to the very real dangers/outcomes we face..?

(i repeat..again..)

““..the CRU’s “analyses have been repeated and the conclusions have been verified.”

just what do those words mean/say to you..?

..esp. the ‘and the conclusions have been verified.”..ones..?

y’know..!..a basic english language comprehension exercise..eh..?

..give it a go..!

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 9:59am
philu

“..why wouldn’t govt committees the world over lie in unison over this new and tewwible thweat?..”

so..let’s see if i’ve got this right..

..so..the scientists have all swung in behind this politicians grab for power..

..’cos they all support the concept of politicians having more power..?

..or are they just all corrupt on a more basic/financial level..?

(um..!..do you ever fucken listen to yrslf..?..yr ‘barking’-ideas..?..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 10:04am
philu

you are rapidly lurching into being a (bad) comedy-routine..

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 10:06am
reid

Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean I’m not being followed, phil. Anyway ad homina argument is irrelevant.

How about explaining precisely how you envisage the brave new world of a regulated global climate change regime actually working, in practice, without resorting to anything that is less than absolute hard fast pragmatic reality, which means you’ll need to explain the enforcement mechanisms as well as the common-or-garden collection mechanisms.

Hopefully, you already have all this at your fingertips, lest I think you a hollow man for advocating something of which you know not what you ask.

P.S. I’m just stepping out for a while, I’ll be back in a few hours…
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April 5, 2010 10:07am
nickb

Thread fucked… get us a replacement
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April 5, 2010 10:08am
philu

i know..!..that reid..!..eh..?

‘fucking’ a good thread like that..!

..eh..?

i’d complain too..if i were you..

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 10:12am
Inventory2

22 comments on the thread, 9 of which are by Phil including at hat-trick between 9.59am and 10.06am when he was talking to himself.

Phil; it’s a public holiday, so how about you let someone else talk instead of monopolising the conversation. You’ll get your chance tomorrow when the rest of us go to work 🙂

(Actually, some of us are at work today as well …)
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April 5, 2010 10:41am
philu

if people wd just stop talking lies/bullshit…i wdn’t have to correct them..

and..

whoar never sleeps..

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 10:56am
3-coil

I’ve just watched yesterday’s Q+A interview with Robert Fisk – where he referred to New Zealand as a member of NATO.

When is this secret arrangement going to be revealed to the citizens of NZ? Or was Fisk (as he appeared to be) just pissed as a fart…spouting a whole lot of total bullshit (with the gullible Holmes lapping it all up)?
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April 5, 2010 11:01am
Fletch

A good weekend project for DPF?
Make a bathmat out of all your old wine corks 😛
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April 5, 2010 11:04am
Rachael Rich

The only reason he infests the debate is because you all respond to him. It is how he gets his jollies. Every time you mention his name in a post it brings on his onanastic tendancies.

DO NOT read his posts or respond to his stupidity. If you must reference him, refer to ‘he’ rather than his name.

If you ignore him, he will go away.
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April 5, 2010 11:13am
philu

um..!..no..!

phil(whoar.co.nz)..a.k.a..’he’..

(just retiring for a bout of onanism..

..it won’t take long..)
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April 5, 2010 11:22am
philu

aah..!..that’s better..!

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 11:28am
Inventory2

You see Rachael – even talking ABOUT him elicts a response!

Oh how I wish that the letter, phonecall or knock on the door comes this week ….
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April 5, 2010 11:29am
Rachael Rich

Why don’t you go away and see if you can beat any world records:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masturbate-a-thon

10 hours should do it.

[DPF: Demerits next time for that]
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April 5, 2010 11:44am
Patrick Starr

problem with that is the next time phool gets stiff will be in his coffin
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April 5, 2010 11:47am
Neil

Time to trot out the Shop Trading law.
What an ass ! Great example in Queenstown where everything is open and Wanaka swarming with shop inspectors trying to make $1 000 fines.
I think it is about time we standardized shopping hours by going back to a shut down every weekend,shut down on all public holidays and complete regulation by the state of shopping!!!!!!!!!! Let’s stop Sunday papers,Sunday sports and go back to the days when three church services a day were broadcast on radio.Let’s go back to state radio!!!!!!!!!! Let the unions and churches run business !! Bloody bonkers !!!!!!!!!!
Where MP’s pander the urges of religious bigots from churches with real problems like sexual abuse and then cover that up.
The present government loves to hype up its opposition to nanny state and yet let Queenstown open and Wanaka stay closed
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April 5, 2010 11:50am
Viking2

How many MP’s were shopping yesterday? Oh none. Yeh right. What about their wives, well those that have em.
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April 5, 2010 12:04pm
philu

is that all..?

just 10 hours..?

(‘i’ll start now..eh..?

anyone got a stopwatch..?..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 12:07pm
Viking2

New story even if I agree the slack unprincipled pollies should change the shop trading laws. That like the smacking law will continue for ever and ever ahmen.

This doesn’t fill me with confidence.

Housing NZ left to its own devices
By TOM PULLAR-STRECKER – The Dominion Post
Last updated 05:00 05/04/2010

A spokeswoman for newly reinstated Housing Minister Phil Heatley says he does not believe he will have a final say on plans by Housing New Zealand to spend $43 million replacing its software systems.

The board of the Crown-owned corporation approved the business case for its Enterprise Transformation Programme last week. The spokeswoman says the project is an operational matter.

Two whistleblowers, two former managers and Roger Phare, operating officer at existing software supplier Technology One, have questioned aspects of the project, for which a bevy of consulting firms has been paid more than $6m for advice.

One former manager says Housing New Zealand intends to buy unneeded software from British firm Northgate and financial software from Oracle to replace its 18-year-old Rentel and FinanceOne applications.

Housing New Zealand has so far refused to detail projected annual savings of $70 million that have been called into question by opposition housing spokeswoman Moana Mackey, or comment on claims that it paid consultants up to $600 an hour and created a potential conflict of interest for strategic adviser Deloitte.

Spokesman Nick Maling says Housing New Zealand’s board gave the go-ahead to start commercial negotiations with potential suppliers. “Ministers have kept a watching brief on the project, and monitoring on behalf of the Crown has been conducted by Treasury and the State Services Commission.”

http://www.nzcpr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=814&sid=2ebcc227eb471d9a4285f7e6dd968f51&p=29397#p29397

And it now sounds as if Phil Heatley is claiming his hands are tied behind his back by the Board of HNZC who are claiming the project has been monitored all along by Treasury & the State Services Commission!!!

It certainly all sounds very dodgy indeed though I have to say it’s hardly surprising, considering my nightmare experience with Pat Snedden, who as far as I know is still HNZC’s Chairperson of the Board.

More wasted money by the left.
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April 5, 2010 12:08pm
Rachael Rich

He can fuck up every single thread on here and I get a warning! He is seriously ruining this site with his tripe and link whoring.

I have been reading this site daily since 2004 and GD became a really good arena for people to discuss things (except religion, climate change…).

Since you have allowed him to run rampant all over the place, the tone of all debates has gone down hill and revolves around him.

So go ahead, demerit me, I shall no longer comment here.

[DPF: Phil does not run rampant. He has been handed demerits on numerous occassions and has been suspended twice. He is only 20 demerits off his third suspension whoch would be for a month

While you are throwing a temper tantrum over only a mere friendly warning – not even a demerit. Rather precious]
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April 5, 2010 12:19pm
s.russell

Forecasting economies is like forecasting weather or earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, and about as reliable. Less so when people are hiding information from them.

Many said for years that there was a bubble and that it would have to burst sooner or later, resulting in some extremely painful corrections. But they could not predict the trigger event.

Of course, if people had listened to them and avoided creating the bubble, the recession may not have happened.
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April 5, 2010 12:21pm
philu

aww..!..c’mon rachel..!..whatta you wanta talka bout..”..eh..?

we sit back atnd wait for yr sparkling repartee..eh..?

(demerit-virgin..?..are you..?

it gets easier after the first time..eh..?

..y’know..!..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 12:26pm
JiveKitty

3-coil: “I’ve just watched yesterday’s Q+A interview with Robert Fisk – where he referred to New Zealand as a member of NATO.

When is this secret arrangement going to be revealed to the citizens of NZ? Or was Fisk (as he appeared to be) just pissed as a fart…spouting a whole lot of total bullshit (with the gullible Holmes lapping it all up)?”

Do you know if there’s a transcript somewhere for that? I’d be interested in seeing what was said and am conserving bandwidth at present.
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April 5, 2010 12:44pm
philu

so raechal..since 2004..eh..?

..and 117 comments in that time..?

..we’re gonna miss you..

..the place won’t seem the same..eh..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 1:04pm
niggly

Do you know if there’s a transcript somewhere for that? I’d be interested in seeing what was said and am conserving bandwidth at present.

http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news/interview-robert-fisk-3447098

Good grief, what was in Bob’s gin and tonic?

Examples of misleading the masses by implying that NATO by geographic definition shouldn’t be assisting the Afghans? Good grief man, the stabalisation mission is UN mandated and it just happens that NATO countries are part of the international community giving a helping hand (and one could say, bloody good show that NATO is involved for a change considering the blood and sweat spilt by the colony’s during WW2 to free them etc).

Typical Bob, nothing but whinging and complaining – sure the Afghan Govt is corrupt, that always have been, but the internnational still has to deal with them. What does Bob want, a CIA coup? (Probably, gives him and other like minded fools more ammunition to continue whinging and complaining, whilst he writes away with G&T in hand)…
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April 5, 2010 1:21pm
JiveKitty

@Niggly: Thanks.
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April 5, 2010 1:40pm
Luc Hansen

I’m siding with Rachael, and that just never happens in the ordinary course of events!

Her post which drew DPF’s warning was funny and creative and I am sure Phil would not have taken offense.

When one considers the libel, the slander, the lies, the racism and the (figurative) verbal violence emanating from the keyboards of the likes of the trailer trash clowns, Redbaiter, Hurf Durf, Tom Hunter, the Jacks and others, Rachel is just a babe in arms.

I hope DPF is not just picking on an uppity woman.

In my opinion, he should email Rachael and withdraw (no pun intended) and apologise.

And I am always amused by those who complain about Phil’s posts – no-one says reading them is compulsory.

[DPF: In my opinion you should not smear me by suggesting I am sexist in my demerits]
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April 5, 2010 1:40pm
starboard

go outside and play on the road philwhore
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April 5, 2010 1:42pm
reid

Good background here on the people behind the Moscow bombings.
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April 5, 2010 1:46pm
Luc Hansen

Fisk may have made a slip-up for the pedants to hang their hats on, but the fact is we have allied ourselves with Nato in the oppression of the Afghans, once again, by foreign invaders in an era when this sort of thing was not meant to happen anymore.

As one of the Q+A panel said, it’s a country barely out of the Middle Ages and to think we can turn it into a fully functioning western style democracy by killing heaps of them is ludicrous.

niggly wants to know what Bob wants. You should buy his books, but the short answer is all western troops out of Muslim lands and a fair settlement for Palestinians. And this is from a guy who has lived in the area for about 35 years and has a home in Beirut.

The west got itself into this crazy situation where they took on too broad a mission and now say they can’t leave the country they are destroying (although I realise this is on a comparative basis – there has never been a lot to destroy) because that would destroy it!

It’s called circular reasoning.
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April 5, 2010 1:52pm
3-coil

JiveKitty (12:44pm) – yes, there is a transcript on the TVNZ website (under Q+A News, Robert Fisk interview ref.3447098)

Edit: I see now that Niggly (1:21pm) has provided a better link – cheers.
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April 5, 2010 1:54pm
3-coil

Luc (1:52pm) – fair point.

North Atlantic vs South Pacific – yeah right, easy mistake for Fisk to make…if he’s pissed as a fart (or as thick as a brick). Why do YOU choose to “hang your hat” on everything he says – when he blathers on as he was HE doesn’t even realise when he’s talking shit.
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April 5, 2010 2:04pm
Luc Hansen

I suppose there is no chance of getting engaged in substance, is there, 3-coil. You appear to morph into re-coil when required to think.

We are part of the Nato mission. What is so hard to understand about that?
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April 5, 2010 2:13pm
reid

Luc, Fisk is right in one sense in that the US and the West generally have been the authors of their own misfortune in the ME. Their division of the region following WWII based purely on oil geopolitics, their short-sighted support of various ruthless political leaders, intelligence operations like the arming of the Mujahadden and then Washington’s abandonment of them once their purpose had been served leaving Afghanistan to descend into lawlessness until the Taliban arose, and their inexplicable and continuous one-sided support for Israel have all been disastrous for regional stability.

Nevertheless, the lesson of 911 was that if you leave them alone, they will organise and attack. If you give them an inch, there are hundreds of thousands if not millions of well-financed intelligent fanatics who will actively pursue WMDs and detonate them in Western cities. This is the reality. So what would you have them do?

Withdraw and just watch a mushroom cloud bloom over Manhattan?
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April 5, 2010 2:16pm
Luc Hansen

Your first paragraph is fine, although a little simplistic, in my opinion. But then you go seriously wrong.

Just who are the ‘them’ you are talking about? It seems you mean the whole population of the ME, which is a very big area indeed, encompassing lots of countries. That’s just silly.

As regards 9/11, we all know who was behind it and some of us know why. Two things inspire Bin Laden and serve to drive recruitment to his and copycat “organisations” – western troops in the ME and The Question of Palestine. So let’s remove our troops and force a fair settlement on Israel as regards the Palestinians, and I do not mean force in any military sense. That will not be required.

Now we have removed the festering sores that form the base of the appeal to unreason that Bin laden and the like foster.

Addressing Afghanistan specifically, Nato commanders have stated publicly that Al Qaeda is no longer a force within that country. We should not have extended the war into one against the entire Afghan population. The Taliban is now but one of a myriad of resistance groups operating against Nato, and you can’t kill an entire population to save them from themselves. Or can we? Our continued presence there is counterproductive in that whole generations of kids are going to be raised to be resistance martyrs, yet the original reason for war has long departed.

So we negotiate with the local groups in control of their sectors and leave the internal politics to them. We ensure they never harbour the likes of Al Qaeda again by making it worth their while to stick with us. We continue to insist Pakistan drive al Qaeda into ever-decreasing areas, but we leave the locals out of it.

The problem now is that the continued focus on one country means we risk someone popping up unexpectedly and causing even worse than 9/11.
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April 5, 2010 3:15pm
Michael

Luc – I think you miss the point completely. Western Values are taking hold in the ME, ideas like giving women rights, not using barbaric torture for criminals, democracy are all taking hold in the younger generation. We’re seeing a fundamental shift in the ME (witness recent events in Iran) towards a more liberal tolerant society.

Bin Laden and his like see this liberalisation as unholy and anti-Islamic. They are wanting to purge the Middle East of it. Blaming US troops and Israel are convenient for him now as recruiting and fundraising tools, but his goal is to stamp out western ideals and have the whole region into Sharia religious submission.

Removing the troops and making a solution in Palestine will not stop Bin Laden and his followers. What will stop him is more Western Values into the ME, making him less attractive to the generation who get the freedoms.
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April 5, 2010 3:38pm
reid

Luc, the “them” are the small group of fanatical Moslems who don’t want to bargain and can’t be bought and won’t stop until they’re eliminated. The “them” also include those who applaud said fanatics but don’t want to get personally involved in terrorist operations themselves but are willing to provide finance and other logistical assistance. Together across the entire ME they number in the hundreds of thousands if not millions, as I said above. Of course I’m not talking about the entire ME population. As I’ve said many times before on this blog, I believe that the vast majority of Moslems are moderate people who just want to have a quiet life. But you won’t stop the fanatics through negotiation. Not ever.

Re: Afghanistan, as I’ve said before Luc, the real reason regardless of public denial that the US is in Afghanistan is because of the nukes in Pakistan and the Al-Qaida stronghold in Pashtun. The ISI cannot be trusted to control and suppress them by itself and given what’s at stake, they cannot be allowed to try, because all it takes is one failure…

“Negotiat[ing] with the local groups in control of their sectors and leav[ing] the internal politics to them…” has resulted in warlords funded by heroin. Do you really think that’s a good idea?

“Our continued presence there is counterproductive in that whole generations of kids are going to be raised to be resistance martyrs…”

I don’t disagree Luc and I’d add that the US’ Israel policy is extremely provocative in that respect and if you want bang-for-buck then change that particular policy and you’d see a whole lot fewer “resistance matyrs” right throughout the entire ME. Re: this issue in Afghanistan specifically, that is best dealt with by nation-building: schools, water, roads, government institutions that aren’t corrupt, etc. If the US did more of that they would see a whole lot less terror. But they don’t. Because it is hugely expensive and takes decades and Washington politicians have neither the foresight nor the patience for that sort of thing. But that’s what Afghanistan needs. A mini-Marshall Plan designed specifically for it.
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April 5, 2010 4:09pm
LeftRightOut

Jakarta is coming.
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April 5, 2010 4:37pm
philu

are they a new band..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 4:50pm
big bruv

If you ever doubted the left are scum..

http://clintheine.blogspot.com/
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April 5, 2010 7:19pm
philu

i went and read the standard..as you advised..

..and i have to say..

..what the fuck are you banging on about..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 7:56pm
big bruv

I am not surprised you see no problem with the comments Phool
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April 5, 2010 8:09pm
philu

and what exactly is the ‘problem’..as you see it..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 5, 2010 8:15pm
Luc Hansen

Michael, I hope you come back and check for my reply, because you are truly in lala land.

The fact is that Islam is undergoing a huge surge in active adherents in the ME as a response to western interference/oppression. We either occupy, contract out our occupation as in the case of Palestine, or, more commonly, support their dictator-in-residence. If you are worried about Sharia then you should be really worried that our current policies are actually encouraging that process.

Iran is a good example. To expel the western-imposed and backed dictator, after organising a coup against a secular and democratically elected government, the country turned to fundamentalist Islam. So to hold Iran up as a shining example acceptance of western values in fact misses the point. But it reinforces my point that we should buy their oil and leave them alone.

Al Qaeda needs to be hunted down wherever they take refuge, no problem, but we also need to understand where he gets his recruits and his copycats from and our role in that.

To suggest that we need to continue our occupation of two countries and our support for the dictators is simply arrogant in the extreme and probably racist. Arabs are pretty dumb, eh?
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April 5, 2010 8:17pm
Luc Hansen

philu

I think you will find Big Bruv firstly, can’t articulate a sensible reply to your question, and secondly, he just wants to execute all the scum (by his definition, of course) without necessarily bothering with a trial.

Just say yes, BB.
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April 5, 2010 8:21pm
Luc Hansen

[DPF: In my opinion you should not smear me by suggesting I am sexist in my demerits]

Sensitive today, DPF?

Having had time to reflect, do you think you overreacted? Especially when compared to the tolerance you generally show to the guys I mentioned?

If Hurf Durf, for example, had posted the same link, would he have got the same reaction?

Or does a women telling us to go wank ourselves offend us just that little bit more?

But I do agree that Rachael overreacted in return, but she is a woman!

[DPF: I can assure you that the gender of the person had zilch part in my warning. Telling someone they are a wanker leads to disorder – simple as that. I don’t see all comments but I saw that one. As Rachael has been a good commenter I gave her a warning, rather than demerits.

The idea of a warning (and even the demerits) is so people learn the limits of what is acceptable. Some of course do not learn, but they often end up suspended.

Incidentally I’ve even handed out demerits to people who in real life are very very close friends of mine. I try not to play favourites to anyone]
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April 5, 2010 8:35pm
Hurf Durf

So we negotiate with the local groups in control of their sectors and leave the internal politics to them.

Like we did from 1991-6? Brilliant!

wo things inspire Bin Laden and serve to drive recruitment to his and copycat “organisations” – western troops in the ME… So let’s remove our troops

I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but there were a shitload less troops in the ME before 2001. Mostly in Saudi Arabia, as a check against Saddam. But now he’s gone, I guess we can send them home. But what about Bahrain and Qatar? They have Western troops there at the behest of their governments. Do we just send them back, sans consultation? Does this troop definition extend to support personnel? There are a lot of countries that use Western military hardware, like Jordan. Do we take back our support staff? Hell, let’s included military presence to include equipment. We’ll take that back too. Sorry, Jordan. You won’t need it anymore anyway, AQ have promised to stop once we’re gone and we can trust them. Luc Hansen said so. The French have got an base in the UAE now. Do you tell them to bugger off too? Or are they insufficiently evil like the Joooooz or the Yanquis?

I don’t think you’ve thought this through too hard. Maybe if you considered cause and effect instead of Fisk’s Stockholm syndrome.

In before Luc whines about coherence or some such.

If Hurf Durf, for example, had posted the same link, would he have got the same reaction?

Truly honoured that you thought of me first.
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April 5, 2010 8:55pm
Luc Hansen

Well now Hurf, where to start amidst the ramble?

The governments of Bahrein and Qatar and UAE are not dependent on western support (neither is Iran, by the way), so that’s a red herring. “King” Abdullah definitely does, although I do think he does a pretty good job. If he held free elections for his sham parliament and that body agrees to the western presence, then sure, no problems. Otherwise, go.

Troops were not in Saudi Arabia as a check against Saddam. His army was destroyed in 1991 and never recovered. 2003 was a joke, except for the Iraqis who have died in their hundreds of thousands. The target was then, and remains, sadly, Iran. A lesson in how a natural resource is not necessarily beneficial.

Think some more, Hurf.

I take it you are not doing papers that demand structured essays or even Critical Thinking at uni.
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April 5, 2010 9:11pm
Hurf Durf

I know, Luc, that it’s hard to break past the old ‘West = evil therefore West in Middle East = evil therefore West not in Middle East = goodness and flowers’ thinking, but if you exercise your brain for once you might have an epiphany which might drag your thinking somewhere left of Mao rather than left of Pol Pot.

The governments of Bahrein and Qatar and UAE are not dependent on western support

I didn’t say they were. I was saying that pulling them out blase with no government consultation is rather stupid. Wouldn’t you agree?

neither is Iran,

Why are you dragging Iran into this? I didn’t bring them up.

Troops were not in Saudi Arabia as a check against Saddam. His army was destroyed in 1991 and never recovered.

Saddam sent troops down to the Kuwaiti border in 1995 and his rule post-Gulf War culminated in several disarmament crises and the continuing deployment of Western forces to keep his expansionist ambitions quiet. His army was just primitive enough and his grip on power cultivated by enough force to make him and his family’s presence in the region malignant and unwanted and warrant at least the attention of the West.

Unfortunately, his only real use – a bulwark against Iran – gave him 12 more years too long in power. Maybe if he’d been overthrown covertly in 1991 and replaced by even a less ambitious dictator, before Iran started the leg work on its WMD programs, we wouldn’t be having these problems now.

I can’t work with “what if,” only “what is.” Unlike you, Puke.
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April 5, 2010 9:34pm
niggly

Ok, have a bit more time unlike this afternoon’a quick post, so back to the Robert Fisk Q+A interview.

I read his articles when they appear in the daily’s and occassionly his online work for a good 10 years now. Picked up his recent Civilisation book for a read, but have been aware of his dislike of his father’s exploits in the ME many decades ago (I sorta wonder whether Bob didn’t turn out to be the sort of son his father wanted, and his writings against “euro/US imperialism” in the current ME is his personal justification to his father on how he, Bob, is right and dad not & just a pawn etc).

Back to the Q+A interview. (I wish NZ journos would stop treating him like “god”, he ain’t, his views whilst observed first hand in the ME, are simply his personal views. We all have them, and we always think we are right etc. Where people go wrong is when they stick to their worldview in pure black and white – the same thing GWB is accused of, is no different to Robert Fisk’s ME worldview).

Firstly I’m amazed how the “left” attack the “left” (and the “right”) with utter disdain and smog arrogance. Whatever one thinks of President Obama, it is unheard of for a US President to go to Egypt and admit US Foreign Policy has made mistakes and apologised (eg Iran coup). You’d think Fisk would celebrate, but no, simply disdain because Obama has to talk about the current Israeli/Palestinian issue in neutred diplomatic speak, as one does as a convention, in the world of foreign affairs. So Fisk labels Obama as “gutless”. Charming (and charming how the left hate the left more than the right). What an arrogant a-hole Mr Fisk, WTF have you done to bring about peace that is better than the US President’s efforts (this and previous)? Apart from reporting on personal tragedies, sweet FA Fisk.

Secondly he disses Joe Biden and Hilary Clinton for speaking out against the Israel (i.e. “an affront, to announce these homes when Joe Biden was visiting”) because he claims the US simply cares about its public image in the face of real (Palestinian) suffering, but it has been reported elsewhere that the US Govt’s concern is that these moves, made when the US VP visits, undermines US Peace initiatives which for various reasons is true, after all to negotiate one has to do so in good faith, the I&P issue is rather like children having tantrums so the more one side is affronted the more this side doesn’t want to come to the negotiating table. So Fisk plays all that other important stuff down, as simply being smoke and mirrors etc. Thanks for nothing Fisk, your cynicism simply means the peace process is drawn out and further deaths (on both sides) keeps continuing.

I’m with Reid’s responses on this issue today, for to pull western forces out of the ME is simplistic and won’t prevent innocent deaths, far from it, these ME fellas are used to centuries upon centuries of conflict between themselves and other tribes and death is just part of the process. Sure the West isn’t perfect, and drew the lines on the maps back in the early C20 but the fact is, if these ME countries wanted to cooperate and get along, they would simply redraw the map themselves nowadays by negotiating (rather than invading). Yes, it is arrogance to suggest the West can impose democracy (something that is foreign to most ME countries), but the people of the ME in general, like the people in the West in general, want peace and to grow up and go to school and find work and support their family and so on, and the only way for this to happen is with outside help from democratic countries (and other international bodies).
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April 5, 2010 10:48pm
Hurf Durf

Greenpeace branching out into intimidation, threats of terrorism.

Maybe now the shadowy forces of the MI5 and CIA will take long-necessary action.
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April 5, 2010 10:48pm
Luc Hansen

niggly

Thank you for your thoughtful reply.

But once again you show up our arrogance, our “white man knows best” attitude.

Personal tragedies may not matter to you but to Fisk, who lives amongst them, it means a lot.

I disagree with Fisk about his “gutless” remark because he acknowledges that Obama is actually hamstrung by a Congress bought and paid for by the Israel Lobby. But the guts of his remarks are true, nonetheless. It’s not the US that is suffering over the colonisation pogroms enacted since 1967 by israel, it’s the Palestinians people, real people, just like you and I.

Can you imagine what would happen if Hone Harawira and his “army” turned up at your house tomorrow and sent you on your way because he was going to build a new pa on the site, justified by the perhaps mythical belief that there was one there about 1000 years ago. Would you say fair enough?

You say pulling our forces out of the ME won’t prevent innocent deaths. But we cause innocent deaths just by our very presence, let alone our actual shooting. So circular.

Empires have always resisted withdrawing voluntarily on the same basis. Think India, Afghanistan (under Russian rule, and before that British) and Algeria in relatively recent times. Ghandi had a message for the British: he said what happens after you leave is none of your business just pack your bags and go! All occupiers did just that in the examples I mentioned, and there were many problems, but it was best in the end. India and Algeria are now western allies, and Afghanistan would have been too, and still could be, if we just allowed that to happen.

The best help we can give them is the courtesy of allowing them to formulate their own destiny, and we are strong enough to repel any threat, which, in my view, is largely illusory under that scenario.

And your suggestion that countries can renegotiate their own borders afresh when most are ruled by dictators is just so touchingly naive.

Hurf, you tiresome boy, I don’t say the west is evil. I am of the west. I do say we should recognise the wrongs we have inflicted on others in the past and in the present, and where we can, offer redress and help. But not by killing them. Now go and squeeze another pimple.
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April 5, 2010 11:24pm
Luc Hansen

DPF

I could quibble about the shit thrown at me, but fair enough.

Can you ask Rachael to give us another chance? You know, the personal approach.
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April 5, 2010 11:32pm
niggly

Luc, trust me – personal tragedies do matter to me, I was merely pointing out that Fisk’s frothing at people like, in this case, Obama, is annoying, when Obama’s deeds (or any/most US Presdient’s for that matter) are greater and practical (and have limitations eg the Congress situation you point to) whereas all Fisk can do is whinge and moan. Granted Fisk’s writing on personal tragedies is important in order to bring that to the people of the west’s attention. But in my opinion instead of moaning about US Foreign Policy in order to help the Palestnians, he, as a reporter, should do more to expose any wrong doings of the Israeli lobbying in the US, if it indeed is such a problem.
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April 6, 2010 9:33am

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