General Debate 13 February 2010

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Viking2

So What is it about fraud the Our erstwhile Minister of whatever he is doesn’t understand. Most of the world other than politicians have this well and truly though out but not the pollies.(which I guess shows the quality of their intellectual ability.)

Government ‘cautious’ after climate change authority’s error
6:51 PM Friday Feb 12, 2010

Nick Smith says the Government will be more cautious when it comes to deciding climate change policy. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Errors said to be have been made by the organisation charged with the job of determining the scientific truths about climate change have led the Government to take a “cautious” approach to its own climate change policies.

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes reports which are used by governments around the world to guide their policies, but concerns have been raised after a series of potential inaccuracies were highlighted by media.

The last report, issued in 2007, said it was likely that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035. A British newspaper investigated the IPCC’s claim and found that it was likely to have been based on a 1999 interview with an obscure Indian scientist.

“In the past few days the scientists behind the warning have admitted that it was based on a news story in the New Scientist, a popular science journal, published eight years before the IPCC’s 2007 report,” read part of an article in London’s Sunday Times.

In an article which will appear in this weekend’s edition of the Listener, Environment Minister Nick Smith says “the fact that there are errors in the IPCC report is of concern.”

Dr Smith says the errors would “inevitably” have an effect on New Zealand’s climate change policy, but that the Government would take a cautious approach to any changes made.

“I’ve had calls from people who want us to abandon or defer the Emissions Trading Scheme,” he said. “That’s not what the Government is going to do.”

So what are the Govt. going do? Sucked in by fraudsters and now unwilling to put it right. So perpetrate a fraud upon the voters instead.
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February 13, 2010 8:50am
Viking2

Yep and the Mighty Canes booted the Jaffa’s. Yey
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February 13, 2010 8:51am
Viking2

Oh and Wellwood hosts the soccer AGAIN.
HA to you bloody Jaffa’s and you want to run the rugby.
Couldn’t run a descent “Fairy” service to the Islands.
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February 13, 2010 8:54am
Pete George

More on Herald polling…

Mr Key declined to comment directly on the Herald reader survey on the basis that it was “not scientific”.

Labour leader Phil Goff also questioned whether the survey reflected wider opinion.

“There would be a whole lot of people out there who are finding it pretty hard to make ends meet at the moment, who probably don’t buy newspapers and would be pretty strongly against GST going up,” he said.

But at least the Herald actually look at what changes are necessary for a neutral adjustment.

Herald calculations this week showed that a single-income family with two young children would be better off at all incomes between $30,000 and $100,000 if GST was raised to 15 per cent, the top two income tax rates were cut to 30 per cent, the bottom two by 2 per cent and benefits, pensions and family tax credits raised by 2.22 per cent.

National should have done this in the first place to make it clear.
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February 13, 2010 8:58am
Ross Nixon

Happy 20th Birthday to Pegasus Mail (aka pmail).

Congratulations are due to David Harris of Dunedin, for single-handedly creating, maintaining and enhancing the first decent (and arguably the most powerful) email client in the world.
How many New Zealanders are aware of him? http://bit.ly/cOn2IL
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February 13, 2010 8:58am
Luc Hansen

The “error” Viking2 is referring to is not the prediction that the Himalayan glaciers could be all but gone by 2035. The error is that it was included in a section which implied peer-reviewed science backed the claim, when in fact it was one scientists opinion – speculation, informed guess, call it what you will.

The IPCC made a decision some years ago to include “grey” literature because of the difficulty in some countries to be reliably peer-reviewed and this circumstance often prevented scientists from less wealthy, but often in the frontline of climate change, publishing research.

As far as the glaciers go, they are mainly melting, as are glaciers worldwide. Any muggins can look at the data from the World Glacier Monitoring Service based in Zurich. Further enlightenment can be found at World Glacier Inventory.

James Hansen, with the benefit of NASA’s satellite surveys and the very latest climate data, predicts that the Himalayan glaciers will have largely melted by 2050. I don’t find 15 years extra lifetime for glaciers particularly comforting.
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February 13, 2010 9:10am
Michael

2010 is the ‘Canes year. It has to be, we’ve finally got two talented first fives in Ripia and Cruden.
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February 13, 2010 9:22am
Luc Hansen

How our climate change deniers invent their evidence.
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February 13, 2010 9:28am
Inventory2

Should electorate MP’s actually be working in their electorates on weekdays when the House isn’t sitting? Or have boundary changes put Waiheke Island in the Ta Atatu electorate?

So many questions ….

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2010/02/random-thought-or-two.html
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February 13, 2010 9:31am
Manolo

Viking, it’s obvious the incompetent Nick Smith does not want to understand. For all he knows, he’s engrossed in the AGW lies and myths. The taxes we’ll all pay as a consequence are a nice revenue earner for the government, thank you.

Smith will go ahead with this farce as far as he can (to the bitter end, I’m afraid). In the meantime, where does his boss, empty-suit Key, allow him to wreck the economy?

Can’t the PM see the damage this ETS will do to our country? How couldn’t he?
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February 13, 2010 9:33am
Pita

Manolo, for Nick Smith to suddenly reverse his course would suggest to the masses that he is gullible and does not have a grasp of his portfolio beyond the oft cited mantra’s of the IPCC.

Far better to gently steer away, in the hope that others will alter their positions first (Aust/USA), before coming out with a solid well spun reason as to why the ETS were no longer appropriate to meet the “World’s” and “New Zealand’s” needs.

In that way Smith could be seen as well informed and reasoned…and Pigs really do fly!
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February 13, 2010 9:50am
Luc Hansen

Werewolf published an article on the historic city of Hebron in the West Bank (Occupied Palestinian Territories) submitted by a recent visitor to the area. It essentially condemned Palestinians for resisting the violent and ongoing encroachment of Israeli (read European and American religious extremist colonisers) “settlers”. Werewolf kindly published my (incomplete) rebuttal.

There was another recent visitor to Hebron, one Robert Fisk, writing a major report on the prospects (or lack of) for peace in historic Palestine. He presents a quite different view of Hebron in this extract from his closing paragraph:

I went to Hebron and saw, on the walls, for the foreign tourists, the words of the Jewish settlers: “The Torah, kindness and happiness.” Then, just up the road, where the Palestinians are being driven out and tourists do not venture, another graffiti. “This is for the Arabs,” it said in Hebrew. And beneath was drawn a dagger.
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February 13, 2010 10:13am
Falafulu Fisi

Vicking2, bugger! I thought that the Auckland Blues would have won by 15 points, but it was the other way round. Anyway, it’s only early games of the season, because I reckon that the Blues will be there at the playoffs.
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February 13, 2010 10:22am
philu

what john key promised southland farmers yesterday…

http://whoar.co.nz/2010/what-good-news-message-john-key-imparted-to-southland-farmers-yesterdayand-what-message-does-he-have-for-the-residents-of-mcgehan-closethe-poorworking-classhow-aboutand-you-can-all-just-kiss-my-nation/

..(this has been reported by an eyewitness…greenfly at froblog..)

“..At yesterdays Agricultural Show in Southland, John Key told the assembled, adoring farmers, that they needn’t worry about his proposed 15% rise in GST.

He said that it might mean they would have to pay and extra $500 per year .. but that they would get $1500 back as personal tax cuts.

He also said that they oughtn’t worry about the $3000 each farm would be required to pay toward the Emissions Trading Scheme ..

.. because he’d make sure they got all that and more returned to them in other ways.

The crowd cheered .. (99% of them)..”

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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February 13, 2010 10:24am
Inventory2

Phil – looking forward to having to go to rehab for your “problem”?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/3318611/Potheads-to-be-forced-into-rehab
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February 13, 2010 10:31am
gravedodger

Nomination for silly bugger of the week ——— goes to —— the total f@#king idiot who refused incorporation to the Banks Peninsula Pony Club because they had the word BANKS in their name and that was against a policy of the Reserve Bank who wish to control the use of the word bank. For god’s sake we had a district council, a rugby club, A dog trial club, a walking track, a bloody peninsula all coming from a naming of a piece of land from the time of Cook. I am unaware of any confusion so far. I did however have to make compulsory deposits to the District Council but did not expect to be able to make withdrawals or consider said council a BANK.
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February 13, 2010 10:33am
mikeysmokes

Your dreaming if you think the Canes are gonna win the S14 this year, perrenial flakes and chokers.
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February 13, 2010 10:46am
side show bob

philu, how’s the convalescing going, I’m surprised they let you out so early, I hope the electric shocks weren’t to painful. Good to see you still have a deep love for the farming community and wish us well.

And then there’s Luc, still trying to convince himself that those useless bits of paper he brought on trade me will be worth something one day, you’ve been done mate.

The National socialists will never reverse their decision on the ETS, whats the bet the tax take has already been budgeted for, tax cuts my arse.
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February 13, 2010 10:53am
big bruv

All of you who are talking about Rugby in the middle of February should be bloody well shot……..or go out more and get a life!
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February 13, 2010 10:59am
big bruv

Why would we want to pay for Phool to attend a rehab clinic?

Just cut off his benefit, much cheaper and a lot less hassle.
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February 13, 2010 11:03am
mikeysmokes

Its rugby season bruv
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February 13, 2010 11:08am
dime

enjoyed watching Alinghi get their ass kicked this morning. Hopefully Oracle win the 2nd race by the same margin.
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February 13, 2010 11:18am
MT_Tinman

Rugby?

Wassat?

Heard the word somewhere.

Can’t have been whispered at the cricket – the bloody hasn’t been any.
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February 13, 2010 11:20am
mikeysmokes

I’m with you Dime looks like you can chalk up another Auld Mug for Sir Russell Coutts
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February 13, 2010 11:22am
Viking2

Luc, when in a grave stop digging or the hole gets deeper.

http://briefingroom.typepad.com/the_briefing_room/2010/02/more-scandal-in-climategate-review-another-panellist-biased.html
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February 13, 2010 12:30pm
Doug

What is it with the Standard a whole post disappears?
The heat must be getting to them. Talk about altering things to suit themselfs.

http://www.thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13022010/#comments
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February 13, 2010 12:37pm
LeftRightOut

And of course I Wishart has no bias, does he? he is a scientist, isn’t he? No, wait, he’s a fringe loony fundy wannabe sky pilot who doesn’t like the thought of any religious beliefs gaining precedence over his own.
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February 13, 2010 12:37pm
Lutzie

Why are so many National and ACT supporters anti conservation?

Whether or not you agree with the premise that human activity is changing the earth’s atmosphere in a way that could or is altering the climate, isn’t it time we trod a little more lightly on the planet?
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February 13, 2010 12:48pm
whalehunter

like population control??
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February 13, 2010 12:51pm
calendar girl

When NZ’s government of the day passes retrospective legislation to validate political parties’ theft of taxpayer’s money, and in the process conveniently invalidates court proceedings against its own leader, one might expect leading academic institutions (especially law schools) to be in the van of those protesting vehemently against such insidious corruption of the the rule of law.

Sadly not. On Wednesday the University of Auckland is expected to confer an honorary Doctorate of Laws on former Prime Minister, Rt Hon Helen Clark, in recognition of her services to New Zealand. A Doctor of Literature degree would cause less offence (after all, the lady authored many mythical tales in her time), but to make her a Doctor of Laws is insulting to those whose taxes fund the University of Auckland.
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February 13, 2010 1:10pm
Viking2

http://www.nzcpr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=916&p=28395#p28395

The wide boys in the National climate game.
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February 13, 2010 1:13pm
malcolm

LeftRightOut, having just read Eve’s Bite I have to agree. Ian Wishart trades on his credentials of having once been a journalist of some repute, but that all seems to have gone out the window. The chapter in which he immodestly declares that he’s disproved the core thesis of Dawkin’s God Delusion was particulary toe-curling.
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February 13, 2010 1:47pm
nickb

Agree with bruv, the boring and monotonous Super 14 competing with the thrill of trans tasman cricket coming up… no contest
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February 13, 2010 3:04pm
OECD rank 22 kiwi

Who’s giving a live commentary of Olympics Opening ceremony?
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February 13, 2010 3:16pm
OECD rank 22 kiwi

Check out the four erections in the middle of the stadium
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February 13, 2010 3:17pm
mjennings

I saw the Brooke interview.

Brooke, as far as I am concerned is a shameless liar.

His apology amounted to no more than one for drinking too much. He believes he had absolutely no recollection of groping the girl and assaulting the teenager who came to her aid. Utter bollocks. And that he was only aware that he had ‘apparently’ done this five days after the fact – whereupon he immediately apologised. Just a transparent load of bollocks.
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February 13, 2010 3:20pm
OECD rank 22 kiwi

Nothing quite like some token dancing natives for that feeling of smug self satisfaction.

Are you taking notes for the Rugby World Cup next year New Zealand?

Maybe you can have some dancing Maori dressed as giant Kumara. The tourist will lap that up.
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February 13, 2010 3:20pm
Manolo

The latest pearl of wisdom from Nick Smith: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10625837

The incompetent, head-in-the-sand minister, had the gall to say the following:
“The errors would “inevitably” have an effect on New Zealand’s climate change policy, but that the Government would take a cautious approach to any changes made. I have had calls from people who want us to abandon or defer the Emissions Trading Scheme, but that’s not what the Government is going to do.“
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February 13, 2010 3:26pm
OECD rank 22 kiwi

Well there was New Zealand’s walk into the stadium. So 26c in Auckland today?
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February 13, 2010 4:00pm
Chicken Little

Luc, Oh Luc, where for art thou Luccy?

Since you’re so keen on further enlightenment please peruse this latest interview with Prof Phil Jones, late of EAU .

Oh dear!

edit: Oh and Minister Smith, if you happen to read this, you should read the interview too and then resign in your shame.
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February 13, 2010 4:19pm
Luc Hansen

Personally, I don’t necessarily support ETS schemes. I have two primary objections.

One is that our future is too important to be left to the questionable ethical framework of many of the big guns in the global corporate environment.

Another is the philosophical problem, inherently contradictory, ETS encapsulates of a “licence to pollute.”

As an aside, those who hate freedom often talk of population control without recognising two salient facts: at least half (the poor, fast growing half) of the planet’s human population impose an insignificant carbon footprint; and the only proven, non-punitive method of reducing population growth is, in a world of finite resources, a massive transfer of wealth from the rich to the poor.

China’s recent economic performance is a case in point. It is a massive transfer of wealth from the west to the east, via the mechanism of free and even not-so-free trade. China would have had no need of its demographically disastrous one-child policy if it had concentrated on economic liberalism earlier.
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February 13, 2010 4:29pm
Pete George

What’s so bad about that interview Chick? Seems like some honest admissions but also doesn’t prove that because there was some shoddy science everything is false. And he’s right, if some of the time and effort trying to discredit was put into trying to determine more of the science we could all be a lot better informed and better off.
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February 13, 2010 4:35pm
wikiriwhis business

Well,

What a stuff up at North Harbour. Half way through the first half and half the crowd, including team officials, can’t get into the game.

NZ has some of the worst administration in the world.

we don’t make enough examples.

From power boards to sport, we let ourselves get rail roaded.

We are all run by a bunch of cowboys.
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February 13, 2010 4:38pm
Chicken Little

Did you read the interview Luc?

The highlight for me was Jones admitting the there have been warmer periods in the past and that the MWP was probably warmer than todays temperatures. (hows that for giving Mann one right up the botty?)

Another highlight was him admitting that they have not kept proper records of past temps. ie -THEY MADE SHIT UP.

As I said “Oh dear!”, I’d be guessing that the wheels are going to come off at a very rapid rate now.

Normally this would be a time for bridge building and the beginning of new cooperation in the name of science and understanding, however considering the evangelical zeal with which the ‘science’ has been turned into a religion I feel that certain people will have to be removed from their perches in power before things can move forward. There’s quite a few of them isn’t there Luc?

The thing I love about the interwebs is that everything is there, every witty comment, every accusation of denial, every taunt of ‘anti-science, big oil loving, flat-earth believing saved for eternity by the machine. The eco-marxists, such as yourself Luc will, I’m sure, become well practised at your own form of denial in the years to come.
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February 13, 2010 4:53pm
Chicken Little

Oh piss off Pete – the only reason all this has come to light is because a few sceptics held the torch for the last 10 years. If these people ( the sceptics ) hadn’t done what they did then Jones et al would still be carrying on their merry way.

The whole rational of Science is that people dispute your findings.
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February 13, 2010 4:56pm
reid

Heard an excellent comment today on Andrew Paterson’s show – go here and select the 12:45 today audio – few minutes in. Basically there’s a heresy trial on at the mo in Holland where a politician is being put before the court for making a movie that links aspects of Islam with violence. The authorities are prosecuting him in the middle of an election to make it almost impossible for him to win his seat and the MSM around the world are ignoring it.

This guy slams the whole process basically saying we’re being forced by the authorities to have Islam forced down our throats and if we don’t stand up and tell them to get fucked in a few years time it will start happening elsewhere. It’s a very good comment.
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February 13, 2010 5:06pm
Redbaiter

JOHN KEY, BILL ENGLISH, YOU OUT THERE??????????

READ THIS-

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_021210/content/01125110.guest.html

…AND GET A DAMN CLUE.
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February 13, 2010 5:16pm
OECD rank 22 kiwi

Luc Idiot says:

China’s recent economic performance is a case in point. It is a massive transfer of wealth from the west to the east

China is an example of a massive CREATION of wealth. No one got poorer so China could get rich. Growth and the abilities of the human mind are a wonderful thing.

If you’re getting poorer year after year in New Zealand Luc it will be because you’re a socialist loser. Hence why you are a socialist loser. QED
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February 13, 2010 5:24pm
Luc Hansen

OECD, look at the facts.

The US is hugely in debt to mainly China, but also Japan. Trillions and trillions of dollars. Individually, middle-income US and NZ consumers have suffered static incomes during the rise of China. Europe created the EU in part to protect against this.

There has been no wealth creation to speak of by the US and NZ, just a transfer from us to them.

The fact that the deficit in our funding is in debt (rather than being directly reflected in what should be much reduced per capita incomes) held by these other countries does not negate the reality of the wealth transfer. One day, this debt has to be covered. We have government debt under control (currently) but private overseas debt is, as Mathew Hooten rightly says, horrifying.

Unlike say Australia, we and the US have not been able to exploit a mineral boom, or pump more oil, or whatever, for genuine wealth creation. China’s wealth is on the backs of our lower incomes and higher debt levels.

My point is that market liberalism is an ideal mechanism for the transfer of wealth so beloved by socialists and control-freak neocons. But we need, in the absence of, say, a Finland style Nokia effect, eventually to face up to the implications for the future for ourselves.

\\\
\ /0o b b b b
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February 13, 2010 5:47pm
Pete George

the only reason all this has come to light

…is because someone leaked the emails.

The whole rational of Science is that people dispute your findings.

Partly – rational dispute, questioning, and importantly offering counter findings that are scientifically sound. Disputing some findings and discovering some of them are unsound does not suddenly negate all related findings. There is a lot of science still required before we know what is probably happening to the climate.
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February 13, 2010 5:47pm
Luc Hansen

oops, baby fingers got in there somehow!
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February 13, 2010 5:48pm
scanner

Just passed to me,

BREAKING NEWS

HONE HAWAIRA IS SENDING 40 MAORIS TO HAITI TO HELP WITH THE LOOTING

I wondered if anyone could confirm this, and who is paying for it, bet it’s us white MFers again.
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February 13, 2010 5:53pm
Luc Hansen

Chicken, thanks for the link. Once again, Jones shows that, although he is a brilliant scientist, he is not a suitable spokesman for the science community.

His remark about the WMP is not about the fact that it occurred, or about the fact that it was a local, not global event. It is purely about the uncertainties inherent in measuring proxy data, which is all the evidence we can go on prior to the invention of instruments.

Both the WMP and the LIttle Ice Age were local phenomenom, hardly noticeable on a global scale, and definitely not caused by man-made emissions guaranteed to warm our climate for hundreds of years into the future even if we ceased emitting entirely today – and that just ain’t going to happen!!

But Jones is a perfectionist who wants to pin down the science to the level of the absolute, and we just can’t go back in time and do that.

It’s akin to denying the evolution of the human species due to the understandable gaps in the fossil record.

And the lies of Owen McShane are exposed in the above. The planet cannot still be warming from the Little Ice Age because, globally, there was no Little Ice Age.
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February 13, 2010 5:59pm
OECD rank 22 kiwi

A little snafu with the cauldron lighting ceremony first time round. Well something interesting had to eventually happen didn’t it. Lets see how the rest of the Olympics goes. Controversy usually follows the Canadians at Winter Olympics whether it be a dope smoking snow boarder keeping their gold medal or figure skating pairs being awarded a peoples choice Gold medal for second.
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February 13, 2010 6:23pm
Luc Hansen

Pete @ 5.47pm

There is a lot of science still required before we know what is probably happening to the climate.

Can you explain just the degree of probability you are speaking of here, Pete?

For example, we know that we are warming the planet to at least the level of the Eemian era, when sea level was 6-9 metres higher and major weather events were more extreme. We are going to get there, but what we do not know is how long it will takes us because this is a new experience for the planet relevant to human population. This is non-natural forcing.

And we don’t know the extent to which it will be harmful to us, as a species, but we know it will be harmful.

I can’t believe that just this isn’t enough to convince people of the enormity of our problem – one that will be increasingly imposed on future generations, including my children and grandchildren, the latter of whom should be very much around in the 22nd century.

But then, I’m just reading first hand accounts of the atrocities committed in the Serbian attempted genocide of Bosnian Muslims in the 1990s. Neighbours turned murderously on their childhood friends. The brave Serbs and non-Muslim Bosnians who resisted were also rounded up thrown into concentration camps – and off cliffs.

There appears to be just no limits to the sheer brutality, physical and intellectual, of the human race.
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February 13, 2010 7:02pm
Fale Andrew Lesa

Luc Hansen,

When we discuss China and its fairly recent economic performance its important to acknowledge certain fundamental facts before we cast judgement and draw conclusions.

China is the largest trading nation in the world and the largest exporter and second largest importer of goods. What this tells us is that it is completely dependent on its biggest trading partners: the US, the EU and other regional states.

Hypothetically speaking, if America and the EU were to reduce the size of their economies and in turn reduce the purchase power of Chinese imports: the Chinese economy suffers.

This is a result of China’s poor domestic consumer market, a market that is only just developing as we speak.

The fact is that China can not afford to risk international decline in economic structure because the result will harm Chinese progress most definitely.

Income inequality in China is also a major concern: large disparities in per capita income between regions still exist today, the technological level and quality standards of Chinese industry, underdeveloped infrastructure, poorly paid employees, etc, etc.

The reason why China is more than willing to buy off US and European debt is the simple fact that without US and European purchase power, the Chinese economy will suffer severe consequences: tribute to the phenomenon of globalization.
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February 13, 2010 7:09pm
reid

we know that we are warming the planet to at least the level of the Eemian era, when sea level was 6-9 metres higher and major weather events were more extreme. We are going to get there, but what we do not know is how long it will takes us because this is a new experience for the planet relevant to human population. This is non-natural forcing.

Luc can you please explicate your evidence for the bold bit?

Personally I feel that when AGW/MSM-hysteria “science” answers in full the specific issues raised by this in a full and comprehensive way on the 6 O’clock news, I’ll start listening. Surely they’ll do that, since based on what they and you claim: IT’S THE PLANET PEOPLE: i.e. IT’S BIGGER THAN 9/11, WWI, WWII, WWIII, anything you care to name.

So they should give it “second coming” headlines when those objections are answered. That is, if the MSM truly believe in the bullshit they have seen “fit to print” for all these years.

Until they or your good self actually do that, the MSM’s AGW emissions will to me, continue to sound remarkably like mere alarmist propaganda directed toward useful idiots.
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February 13, 2010 7:19pm
reid

China is the largest trading nation in the world and the largest exporter and second largest importer of goods. What this tells us is that it is completely dependent on its biggest trading partners: the US, the EU and other regional states.

Fale, why does that conclusion follow from those facts? China has a huge internal under-developed consumer market. I don’t know what its dependence is upon raw materials. If its like Japan’s, which has to import 98%, then your comment might bear out, but is that the case, or not?

Since its got a potential internal market 3-4 times the size of the US which is currently the biggest internal market in the world, then even before you consider the international trade-balance situation, does it not have already a massive advantage over every other nation?
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February 13, 2010 7:25pm
Fale Andrew Lesa

Reid,

“China has a huge internal under-developed consumer market.”

An under-developed consumer market that is only just being developed. Widespread unemployment continues to plague the country’s domestic progress, transportation infrastructure is inadequate for the demands of the Chinese population and despite the expansion and improvement of its domestic communication services: “they fail to be as prevalent or as advanced as those in modern Western countries.”
We can’t forget the deterioration in the environment either, notably air and water pollution, soil erosion, growing desertification and the steady fall of the water table especially in the north.

– “One demographic consequence of the one-child policy is that China is now one of the most rapidly ageing countries in the world.”

An aging population infringes upon its long-term prosperity and threatens its continued economic advance.

The Chinese economy, like most is a multifarious economy that relies on economic factors both external and internal.

“China’s global trade exceeded $2.4 trillion at the end of 2008. It first broke the $100 billion mark in 1988, $200 billion in 1994, $500 billion in 2001 and $1 trillion mark ($1.15 trillion) in 2004.”

This is an indication of the influence that Chinese global trade has over its economy and if it fails to tap into the source of its domestic markets, this poses a huge threat.
China can not afford to sit back and do nothing, even though development has initiated recently to address such concerns, there are skeptics that fear such change is too little too late or not enough.

China’s population might is certainly an advantage Reid, but only when used most strategically: with the current levels of unemployment, concerns over its aging population and disparities over living standards and income levels – it is an advantage that threatens to be rather minimal at the most.
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February 13, 2010 7:48pm
Fale Andrew Lesa

I should also point out that as a law student, my knowledge of economics is rather bleak but as an international relations major I have had the privilege to receive some background interpretation of China’s economic development and how this influences the world, via globalization.
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February 13, 2010 7:53pm
reid

” it is an advantage that threatens to be rather minimal at the most.”

See I have to disagree Fale. I see their population long term as their main advantage. We’ve seen in Japan that Asians are naturally voracious consumers of the most important factors leading to national economic if not social success: education and frugality.

As the Chinese people do what the Japanese did in the 50’s: – move from the farms/villages into the cities, then, using the instantaneous 21st century technology to spread the word of new ideas, if they are truly taking advantage of the possibilities, they will explode in terms of productivity.

It hasn’t appeared on the radar yet but it’s been slowly advancing for a decade already.

One thing I think China hasn’t yet configured adequately is its ubiquitous and multi-national contempt shown for proprietary IP. They present an image to the world of the wild west and treat it like ‘might is right’ as in our case the Kiwifruit episode decades ago showed and in Google’s case of the last few weeks. If they don’t address that piracy then they don’t deserve their veto at the UN Security Council and quite frankly Russia is in the same boat. If either of those countries really wants to play at that level then they need to get their shit together in that area.

Its single child policy is proving to be today a disadvantage, conceived as it was in a time of resource shortage. However, if they relax that, it discredits Mao which means admitting the Politburo was wrong.

Despite all the shortcomings however, they are the most influential player in our region as their cheque-book diplomacy has shown over the years in the Pacific Island nations. I actually think our main security issue is in fact not a Chinese threat but the question of whether an ill-conceived Australian-US alliance might threaten China to the extent it feels the need to take out Australia and what would WE do if that actually started to occur?
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February 13, 2010 8:14pm
Pete George

Why are you such a bitter prick D4J? All you seem to do is try to pick fights. Ouch, it hurts so much online. Your predictability is painful.
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February 13, 2010 9:32pm
side show bob

FAL “I should also point out that as a law student my knowledge of economics is rather bleak”. I doubt if it’s a problem Fale, it seems to me you are in good company.As long as you are not a scabby arse socialist you are a showpiece.
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February 13, 2010 9:46pm
side show bob

Reid, what will happen if the USA fails ?

Will not China, as so much of their goods are exported to the US.

And if the US fails how can China continue producing products for a limited consumers
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February 13, 2010 9:56pm
Pete George

Luc Hansen at 7:02 pm

Can you explain just the degree of probability you are speaking of here, Pete?

Can only guess at the moment. They need to review and sort out the good science from the skewed science, then we might get a more accurate idea of it.

But as a rough stab I’d say there’s an 80% chance humans are affecting the climate, 50/50 that it’s a significant influence, and 20% chance we can or should do anything practical to reverse or reduce it.
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February 13, 2010 9:56pm
Tauhei Notts

Luc Hansen at 10.13 a.m.
Thank you for pointing the way to the wonderful writing of Robert Fisk.
Pity your others posts on this blog are rubbish.
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February 13, 2010 10:03pm
Viking2

Luc said:Unlike say Australia, we and the US have not been able to exploit a mineral boom, or pump more oil, or whatever, for genuine wealth creation.

Keep up lad.
NZ exported in excess of 3 billion dollars worth of oil last year. Technology is now our no.3 export behind tourism and diary.

We are about to begin the export of coal in bigger quantities.(now you won’t like that I know but shit who cares so long as we get paid well).

More oil on the way, more milk on the way out, more trees on the way out, wine , kiwifruit, gold, rugby players. We are on the cusp of the best place we have been since the 1970’s. when the first oil shock clobbered us and clowns like Muldoon thought they could isolate us from the world.

All we need do now is send the greenies off to somewhere and stop taxing the crap outta everyone who creates wealth to support their counter party that lives off that wealth.
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February 13, 2010 10:11pm
Whafe

K D Lang singing for the winter olympics on Prime sounds fantastic, that woman can sing…. Yeah ha, awesome…
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February 13, 2010 10:21pm
Whafe

Well said:

Viking2 (1343) Says:
February 13th, 2010 at 10:11 pm
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February 13, 2010 10:23pm
kaya

Redbaiter – Key is full of shit. I voted for the Nats in the mistaken belief that they would sort out the public service and slash it to something resembling reasonable numbers. They’ve done squat. Problem is the alternatives are bleak and he knows it.
Instead they redistribute the money a bit differently to the last lot. Increase GST, jiggle it around, waste 80% of the money in the administration process. Brilliant.
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February 13, 2010 10:24pm
Fale Andrew Lesa

Reid,

“I see their population long term as their main advantage.”

I should have been more specific and for that I apologize: what I was inferring in my previous response was a hypothetical assumption, that if the concerns over widespread unemployment, the aging Chinese population, income/living standard disparities, other economic disparities/divisions, etc failed to be highlighted, addressed and changed within the near future – the future of China’s population advantage is truly unknown.

For the superiority of China’s overall population to truly take flight, the Chinese government needs to ensure that the right mechanisms and policies are in place to address the social and economic concerns highlighted above.

What good is a large population base with widespread unemployment, low-paid employees, an aging population, etc? Without the right support, these people are meaningless and will not contribute to the country’s prosperity.

You also mention Chinese Urbanization and the improvement/progress that this will provide for China but allow me to point out flaws with this argument: 43 percent of China’s total Labour force is reserved by the agriculture industry, China is one of the world’s largest producers and consumers of agricultural products – and some 300 million Chinese farm workers are in the industry. “China is the world’s largest producer of rice and is among the principal sources of wheat, corn (maize), tobacco, soybeans, peanuts (groundnuts), cotton, potatoes, sorghum, peanuts, tea, millet, barley, oilseed, pork, and fish.”

Urbanization will have its downsides and these need to be acknowledged: one of the biggest backbones of China’s economic progress to date has been a direct result of its agricultural sector. Any mass movement towards Urbanization may result in extreme food shortages and a decline in China’s export of agricultural stock – enabling huge decline for its entire GDP and perhaps the complete destruction of China’s economic stability.

You must not add too much credit to a comparision between China and Japan either, both case studies have their vast differences and divisions. I believe in the late 1990’s people went as far as calling Japan the next “Super power” to the United States. That assumption has now been disembarked as a result of changing economic tides and poor economic management on Japan’s part.

Your reference to security within the South Pacific region intrigues me however and has proven popular in the international relations paper that I currently undertake. Under this particular paper, we acknowledge China’s growing influence within the region: China now plays active roles in Samoa and Tonga and is even having influence on the South Pacific forum. Its aid programme within the South Pacific region is also adding fuel to the fire of New Zealand and Australia’s previous interests/obligations.
China is also undertaking significant interest within the African region, abolishing former debt owed by African nations in exchange for Chinese benefits.

Its definitely one to watch over time.
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February 13, 2010 10:24pm
Fale Andrew Lesa

Side show bob,

“I doubt if it’s a problem Fale, it seems to me you are in good company.As long as you are not a scabby arse socialist you are a showpiece.”

I am humbled by your kind compliment Bob and you can rest assured that a career in law will not entail a dependence on welfare or unemployment.
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February 13, 2010 10:27pm
Luc Hansen

Fale, thanks for your reply (by the way, you may call me Luc: I am a pretty informal type of person).

The scenario you present is pure fantasy. Tell me how any US president can deliberately lower the living standards of his population and survive the next election, please. G.H. Bush tried it and failed. Obama would like to save us from global warming but they won’t let him. He wouldn’t win the next election; end of story.

But you have the power equation wrong. It is true there is an interdependence between China and the other economies you mention, but if the autocratically-ruled Chinese suffered, say, a 5% drop in income, it’s 5% of not much and dissent gets repressed.

But if greatly wealthier US consumers gets the same deal – watch out!

And we always prefer the cheaper goods over the more expensive locally made ones. Just a fact of life.

The point is, do you deny the equalising effects of full trade liberalisation – which the US inhibits because, as much as it can, it wants one way traffic. But as regards Chinese goods, well, they just can’t help themselves.

This is not intended as criticism, just analysis.
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February 13, 2010 10:28pm
Tauhei Notts

Fale Andrew Lesa
Is there any truth in the thought that it is China, and China alone, that is propping up the awful Mugabe regime in Zimbabwe? I have often wondered where that regime gets its money from, now that their agricultural business is stuffed.
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February 13, 2010 10:31pm
side show bob

V2 I have two cousins that are “high” up in two different oil companies, they have said the demand is not there compared to 2 yeas ago.If the the world slows down anymore then oil and expotion will be worth nothing. In other words no peak oil but no new revenue.
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February 13, 2010 10:33pm
Luc Hansen

Pete @ 9.56

I’d say there’s an 80% chance humans are affecting the climate, 50/50 that it’s a significant influence, and 20% chance we can or should do anything practical to reverse or reduce it.

Sorry mate, you really should read more, and not from here.

It’s actually 100%, 100%, and 100%, but your bet guess is as good as mine as to whether we will!!

I’m pessimistic, but I hope I’m wrong.

I’ve started on a new blog to work through the scenarios, especially from a NZ perspective, and hope to post some authoritative stuff soon.

Keep an eye on http://nicentoasty.blogspot.com/
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February 13, 2010 10:39pm
side show bob

Fale if I need a good lawyer to take the man on how much are you a hour?
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February 13, 2010 10:41pm
Luc Hansen

Viking2, thanks for your view, but I was talking about the current state of reality, not a pipe dream based on a fossil-fuelled future.

All coal should be left in the ground for millenia. Just that one action should keep us relatively safe. The price to pay is reparations to the poor and developing nations who will need to make a “step change” (cool term!) (excuse the pun) in technology at our expense.
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February 13, 2010 10:47pm
Luc Hansen

reid

It’s actually quite easy to rebut all that Lindzen says, so long as you don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory fantasies.

After all, all the best specialists in climate science suffered through 7 years of Bush denialism (he relented in his final year) and still produced the facts, even with the threat of dismissal by politically appointed managers hanging over them. Think about it!

Let me know if you really want the answers. You can email me through my blog(s).
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February 13, 2010 10:57pm
side show bob

With the best of respect Luc I think you are wasting your time. I don’t know how old you are but I would say your child is nearly two. From what research do you base your beliefs on ? Your child will be fine what it doesn’t need is some two bob parent that wants to implant a fear that the world is doomed. Grow up Luc, please, just because you are a fruitcake it’s not your children’s fault.
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February 13, 2010 11:02pm
Luc Hansen

Tauhei Notts @10.31

Do you have any idea how many awful regimes we Westerners currently prop up? Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Israel, Algeria (admittedly a little toned down now, but still pretty murderous, and that’s just the Middle East! And Haiti should get a mention too!

We could even say we are propping up the Iranian theocracy by refusing to accept them and their people as humans, as being just like us, with all the same motivations.

And let’s just conveniently forget the past, OK?
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February 13, 2010 11:12pm
nickb

Fale, how are your law studies going?
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February 13, 2010 11:14pm
Luc Hansen

SSB, you are a lifestyle farmer, so you must have a bob or two, so go to Whitcoulls website and buy James Hansen’s “Storms of my Grandchildren”. That’s as good a primer as you will need. Then perhaps order Michael Mann’s “Dire Predictions”.

For your information, I will be instilling my daughter with hope and optimism; a belief in the ultimate goodness of humans, despite our horrific past. I will encourage her to see all humans, no matter their race, and all animals and all other species as worthy of our respect and consideration.

She is 17 mths.

I am 58.
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February 13, 2010 11:20pm
Luc Hansen

Talking about propped up regimes, check out this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFK5TNcmEmg
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February 13, 2010 11:30pm
pollywog

“K D Lang singing for the winter olympics on Prime sounds fantastic, that woman can sing…. Yeah ha, awesome…”

…pity she, and the rest of them were only acting like they were singing live though

much like Key and English acting like theyre politicians and finance experts…

sorry for your wasted vote kaya…but be honest. It wasnt so much a vote for Key, as a vote against Helen.
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February 13, 2010 11:35pm
pollywog

“I am humbled by your kind compliment Bob and you can rest assured that a career in law will not entail a dependence on welfare or unemployment.”

cough*bullshit*cough…
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February 13, 2010 11:43pm
cha

No name suppression for Dr. Amy Bishop, a University of Alabama biology professor in who is in custody following a shooting where three people were killed and three were wounded.
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February 14, 2010 6:09am
Rod

As simple and clear an explanation that the emperor wears no clothes as you could ask for:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/13/congenital-climate-abnormalities/#more-16395
What a vast cost in money, lives, talent and wasted time has been incurred for nothing.
Why am I paying for premium cost wind power generated electricity when there was no need?
Forget a GST rise – increase the taxes on the alarmist scientists, activists, journalists and would-be carbon traders to compensate us with a personal tax cut.
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February 14, 2010 7:19am
wikiriwhis business

Re: Dr Bishop

Highly believeable she saw something she shouldn’t have.

Yes, I have my tin foil hat on.
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February 14, 2010 3:07pm
kaya

pollywog – my vote wasn’t that personal, Helen just happened to be the leader and figurehead of the latest bunch of lying clowns who pretend to want to lead us to some better place, who mislead us with lies and empty promises they don’t intend keeping.
Who will say or do anything they believe will keep them in power. Who will maintain the status quo for their supporters, whether it is equitable or fair to everyone. That seems to be the nature of politics worldwide. It would appear Martin Luther King’s “dream” will always be just that. Fairness and equity will always take second or third place behind the retention of power for a few.

Key is proving to be the master of appeasement, he makes Chamberlain look like a fascist. His failure to adequately tackle the property/tax imbalance is a perfect example of how he operates. He knows most of the rental property crowd are hardcore National supporters, he is not going to upset them if he can help it. Even though the whole LAQC thing is basically a tax rort.
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February 15, 2010 11:14am

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