The 2010 Senate Elections

This is an election year for the US. Well technically every year is an election year, but 2010 sees all 436 House seats and 37 Senate seats up for election. Today is an early look at the Senate.

The Senate currently has 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. One is hard left and one is moderate.60 votes allows you to end filibusters and pass laws and confirm nominees.

19 of the 37 seats are held by Democrats. Of those 19, five are retiring and 14 seeking re-election. Incumbency is very powerful in the US so a seat where the incumbent retires is often more likely to fall to the other party. The exception to this is when the incumbent has made themselves so unpopular they are a liability – as was the case with Senator Dodd from Connecticut.

The five states where a Democrat is retiring are Illinois, Connecticut, North Dakota, Delaware and Massachusetts. Massachusetts is considered safe. Illinois leans Democrat, Connecticut is likely Democrat hold. Delaware and North Dakota are leaning Republican though.

Of the 14 Democrat incumbents, the marginal states are Colorado, Nevada, Arkansas and Pennsylvania.

So likely Democrat losses are from two to six seats. No chance of losing the majority (at this stage) but may lose their 60 votes. But how about Republican held seats:

The other 18 seats are held by Republicans, and they have six retirements in the states of Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio.

Kansas is safe, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio and Kentucky are marginal. Florida is likely Republican hold.

Of the other 12 Republican seats, none are marginal – at this stage.

So Republicans could lose four seats. This means at this stage the likely Democrat majority in the Senate post 2010 ranges from 54 to 62 (including Independents).

This will change no doubt as candidates are chosen in primaries.