Massachusetts Election

In four days the voters will go to the polls in Massachusetts to elect a new US Senator. This is to effectively replace Ted Kennedy.

Massachusetts is one of the most liberal Democrat-voting states in the US. Recent Senate results for Democratic candidates have been:

1. 2008 65.8%
2. 2006 69.3%
3. 2002 80.0%
4. 2000 72.6%
5. 1996 52.2%
6. 1994 58.1%
7. 1990 57.1%
8. 1988 65.0%
9. 1984 55.0%
10. 1982 60.8%
11. 1978 55.1%
12. 1976 69.3%

Not exactly marginal results.

And for Presidential elections

1. 2008 61.8%
2. 2004 61.9%
3. 2000 59.9%
4. 1996 68.0%

I believe no Republican has won even a single county or congressional district in a presidential election since 1988.

So what is happening in the current election for the US Senate in Massachusetts in this safest of safe seats? And bear in mind the loss of this seat would remove the ability of the Democrats to prevent a filibuster.

So what have the polls said. Here are the seven latest:

1. 8 Nov Dem +31%
2. 4 Jan Dem +9%
3. 6 Jan Dem +15%
4. 9 Jan Rep +1%
5. 11 Jan Dem +2%
6. 13 Jan Rep +4%
7. 14 Jan Rep +15%

This could be one of the major upsets in US politics. I wouldn’t put too much weight on the last poll, but nevertheless it shows how much the tide has turned in recent weeks. Obama is now going to go in himself and campaign to try and rescue the candidate.