Can the GOP retake the Senate and the House?
A new assessment by the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report has moved a dozen more Democratic seats in the House into the vulnerable column. Now, 58 Democratic-held seats are “in play” compared to just 14 Republican-held seats.
And in the latest blow to President Barack Obama’s Democrats, Beau Biden, attorney general of Delaware, abandoned plans to run for the Senate seat that his father Vice-President Joe Biden occupied for 36 years until 2008.
The younger Mr Biden, 40, who recently served in Iraq as a US army lawyer, was until recently thought to be certain to run. But with the Obama-Biden administration’s popularity plummeting, his name could have been a liability rather than an asset in November.
His decision makes Representative Mike Castle, a Republican, the overwhelming favourite to take the seat. …
Republicans need to win 10 Democratic-held seats out of the 16 up for grabs in November to win a majority of 51 to 49 votes in the Senate. For the first time, Republican strategists are beginning to believe it might be possible.
Until the primaries are done, it is too difficult to predict House seats. But could they retake the Senate? They now have 41 seats. What does Five Thirty Eight say are the chances of GOP pickups for various seats:
- North Dakota 99%
- Nevada 76%
- Delaware 75%
- Arkansas 73%
- Pennsylvania 72%
- Colorado 70%
- Illinois 51%
- Indiana 48%
- California 21%
- Wisconsin 16%
- New York 13%
So there is a pretty decent chance the Republicans could gain eight seats and get to 49 seats (assuming they lose none, and it is probably they won’t). But gaining a 50th and 51st seat looks hard on the surface. If Joe Lieberman decided to give his support to the GOP instead of the Democrats, then they only need 50 seats. So can they do it?
Well yes, depending on the primaries. The averages quoted above are based on an average of how polls show various candidates doing in match ups. If the GOP go with the most popular candidates, their chances are better in the last three seats.
California is hard to win, regardless of GOP candidates – Carly Fiorina is assessed with a 19% chance and Tom Campbell with 28%.
But in Wisconsion, former Governor Tommy Thompson is given a 45% chance of winning against the Democrat’s Feingold.
And in New York, former Governor George Pataki is given odds ranging from 50% to 74% depending on who the Democratic candidate is.
So if Thompson and Pataki win the primaries, then a GOP majority in the Senate is possible. However there is a long way to go, and possible does not mean probable.