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November 13, 2009 8:00am by David Farrar

General Debate 13 November 2009

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General Debate

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MikeNZ

Repton
What needs to be done I don’t know, but the social contract has been broken by John Key and The National Party and once broken it is only a matter of time before they do it again.
Just because it seems a little thing doesn’t make it right.

Do you let someone steal and do nothing waiting for them to do it again?
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November 13, 2009 1:45pm
Patrick Starr

“oh really..?
is that why the herald has it top of its’ website..?”

sure – right next to the ad for bacon
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November 13, 2009 1:58pm
getstaffed

Anyone who was outside in Wellington in the last 30mins will understand when I say that summer has just been taunting us.

That was the fastest weather change I’ve seen in years. The diminishing portion of the harbour was millpond flat and mirror-like, while the rest had breakers and squalls of sea spray!
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November 13, 2009 2:31pm
stephen

Summer can hold off until after a certain football game on saturday night IMHO.
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November 13, 2009 3:22pm
pentwig

Oh dear, Philu
It looks like you do not know the answers.
That means you do not even understand the crap you are force feeding us.

Sad, really sad, but do not be too downhearted cause I doubt any greenie could answer it decisively, including the Toad.
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November 13, 2009 3:30pm
dime

in honor of toads stance, im gonna get extra plastic bags next time i go shopping 🙂 might even burn the fuckers 🙂
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November 13, 2009 3:35pm
Political Busker

kiwisfirst.com

“13 November 2009
Increasing reports of court registrars and judges preventing parties access to NZ Courts have raised concerns within the New Zealand Human Rights Commission. Commissioner Director Rosslyn Noonan admitted to kiwisfirst that complaints have increased significantly since the loss of the Privy Council and that ensuring access to the courts is a priority of the HRC. She conceded the New Zealand Human Rights Commission has yet to take any appropriate action…”
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November 13, 2009 4:08pm
getstaffed

New Zealand’s Perfect Storm of Entrepreneurship and Economic Development

Introduction:

Applying a grounded-theory approach to analyzing the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data, we attempt to explain why New Zealand exhibits only a moderate level of economic development despite its high level of entrepreneurship.

By statistically analyzing why 34 other countries in the 2005 GEM dataset exhibit small deviations from the classical quadratic curvilinear relationship between entrepreneurship and economic development, we develop a better understanding of the entrepreneurial framework conditions underlying New Zealand’s large deviation from this trend line.

Based on our findings from the GEM data we make policy recommendations that could aid in moving New Zealand (and other countries) closer toward the trend line and thus promote economic development.

An interesting read. A good summary of the findings and suggested actions are found in Section 6, pp15.
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November 13, 2009 4:08pm
philu

the bbc is reporting the greenland ice-shelf is melting much faster than the highest previous predictions..

they note that should that ice-shelf melt..

than global sea-levels will rise 7 metres..

(that figure again..)..’7 metres’..

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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November 13, 2009 4:25pm
Pete George

To those who thought I came across as anti-marriage recently – my step-daughter came to visit today and to show off her new engagement ring. The diamond was sparkling as much as her smile. I’m very pleased for her and her partner and am proud and fully supportive of this. Marriage may be diminishing but it’s still got a lot going for it.
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November 13, 2009 4:26pm
Pete George

If Greenland takes a dive does that mean Europe could get an instant ice-age?

Around 12,800 years ago the northern hemisphere was hit by the Younger Dryas mini ice age, or “Big Freeze”. It was triggered by the slowdown of the Gulf Stream…

Some climate scientists have suggested that the Greenland ice sheet could have the same effect if it suddenly melts through climate change, but the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded this was unlikely to happen this century.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427344.800-mini-ice-age-took-hold-of-europe-in-months.html

That’s the problem with the IPCC, they could be wrong either way.
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November 13, 2009 4:29pm
backster

Patrick STARR……..I agree it is an outrage clearly Potter intended to impose the minimum penalty she could which she did, and she knew her sentence would seem even more bizarre if she allowed the uncensored paragraphs to stand. She probably didn’t want to hear the full degree of the Mr Elliots hurt herself.
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November 13, 2009 4:32pm
Kris K

getstaffed 2:31 pm,

Anyone who was outside in Wellington in the last 30mins will understand when I say that summer has just been taunting us.

That was the fastest weather change I’ve seen in years. The diminishing portion of the harbour was millpond flat and mirror-like, while the rest had breakers and squalls of sea spray!

Yeah, I love it when those southerly fronts rip through.
Must be something to do with being raised on the south coast of Wellington.

stephen 3:22 pm,

Summer can hold off until after a certain football game on saturday night IMHO.

Absolutely.
That’ll teach them for ‘acclimatising’ in Sydney – silly boys!
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November 13, 2009 4:37pm
getstaffed

That’s the problem with the IPCC, they could be wrong either way

Nope. They just make it up as they go along. There’s no such thing a right and wrong when climate science is replaced with a marketable fiction, and the stotytellers are able to weave towards the always-intended destination.
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November 13, 2009 4:38pm
Kris K

Pete George 4:26 pm,

To those who thought I came across as anti-marriage recently – my step-daughter came to visit today and to show off her new engagement ring. The diamond was sparkling as much as her smile. I’m very pleased for her and her partner and am proud and fully supportive of this. Marriage may be diminishing but it’s still got a lot going for it.

I’ll give you an ‘amen’ to that, Pete.
Congrats to your step daughter and fiance.
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November 13, 2009 4:42pm
getstaffed

From The Telegraph:

Rise of sea levels is ‘the greatest lie ever told’

If one thing more than any other is used to justify proposals that the world must spend tens of trillions of dollars on combating global warming, it is the belief that we face a disastrous rise in sea levels. The Antarctic and Greenland ice caps will melt, we are told, warming oceans will expand, and the result will be catastrophe.
:
But if there is one scientist who knows more about sea levels than anyone else in the world it is the Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change. And the uncompromising verdict of Dr Mörner, who for 35 years has been using every known scientific method to study sea levels all over the globe, is that all this talk about the sea rising is nothing but a colossal scare story.

Despite fluctuations down as well as up, “the sea is not rising,” he says. “It hasn’t risen in 50 years.” If there is any rise this century it will “not be more than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm”. And quite apart from examining the hard evidence, he says, the elementary laws of physics (latent heat needed to melt ice) tell us that the apocalypse conjured up by Al Gore and Co could not possibly come about.
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November 13, 2009 4:51pm
Kris K

Speaking of “marketable fiction” (great line GS),

MikeNZ’s 8:59 am comment linked to:

http://www.psysr.org/about/programs/climate/projects/letter/

Letter to Congress on Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change

As psychologists and other mental health professionals from across the United States, we are deeply concerned about the psychological effects of climate change on our children, families, and fellow citizens. We ask you, as a national leader, to take urgent action now to prevent the growing risks from climate change to our psychological health and the fabric of our society. …

As members of Psychologists for Social Responsibility (PsySR) and other groups with expertise in mental health and behavioral research, we are united in urging the U.S. Congress to take the following immediate legislative actions to prevent climate change’s psychological harm:

1. Legislate cuts in carbon dioxide emissions swiftly and boldly to prevent the greatest psychological harm from climate change. …

Conclusion:
We thank you for taking the time to consider the potentially catastrophic psycho-social repercussions of climate change and for working to create a more sane and humane climate and energy policy for the United States. We recognize that immediate, bold legislative action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is a difficult step for you to take when faced with constituents who have vested interests, others who simply don’t seem to care, and still more who know something must be done but are afraid of what that might look like. But we also honor your role in placing our nation at the forefront of deterring the impending mental and physical peril we will face if our nation fails to act effectively to thwart climate change here and now. We welcome an opportunity to speak with you or your staff on these issues. Please contact Colleen Cordes, Executive Director of Psychologists for Social Responsibility, at 202-543-5347 or ccordes@psysr.org for more information or for help contacting concerned psychologists and other mental health professionals.

Unbelievable!
Next we’ll be linking AGW to the reduction in lesbian socialist dictators’ sexual performance – obviously another mental health issue. No doubt the tax payer will pay for this as well.
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November 13, 2009 5:13pm
Pete George

Nils-Axel Mörner

In 2004 the president of INQUA wrote that INQUA did not subscribe to Mörner’s views on climate change.

In 2000 he launched an international sea level research project in the Maldives which claims to demonstrate an absence of signs of any on-going sea level rise. However, his conclusions were not supported by follow-up studies

His other claim to fame is:

Mörner has written a number of works claiming to provide theoretical support for dowsing. He was elected “Deceiver of the year” by Föreningen Vetenskap och Folkbildning in 1995 for “organizing university courses about dowsing…”. In 1997 James Randi asked him to claim The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge, making a controlled experiment to prove that dowsing works. Mörner declined the offer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nils-Axel_M%C3%B6rner
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November 13, 2009 5:17pm
philu

haha..!..stuffed..

yr expert is yet another wingnut-fraud..

got any more..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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November 13, 2009 5:31pm
toby1845

The Guardian dealing in facts?

Yeah, right
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November 13, 2009 5:36pm
getstaffed

Pete, those references are simply others doing what you’re doing: shooting the messinger with a broadside of personal slurs.

Fact: He is a Swedish geologist and physicist , and formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change

Fact: He has studied sea levels all over the globe for 35 years.

Fact: He has said the sea level is not rising, and hasn’t in 50 years.

Fact: He has stated that that all this talk about the sea rising is nothing but a colossal scare story.

These are the facts, irrespective of whether or not they fit your idea of truth.

But if you prefer to deflect(the story), deny(the evidence) and/or denigrate(the expert) then go right ahead. We come to expect that reaction to anyone who dares question the religion of climate change.
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November 13, 2009 5:41pm
Kris K

Treaty of Copenhagen (draft copy) – will facilitate Golbal Governance:

Lord Monckton:
Get onto the media, tell them about this treaty. If they go to http://www.wattsupwiththat.com, they will find (if they look carefully enough) a copy of that treaty, because I arranged for it to be posted there not so long ago. Let them read it, and let the press tell the people that their democracy is about to be taken away for no good purpose, at least [with] no scientific basis [in reference to climate change]. Tell the press to say this. Tell the press to say that, even if there is a problem [with climate change], you don’t want your democracy taken away. It really is as simple as that.

Treaty of Copenhagen excerpts:

38. The scheme for the new institutional arrangement under the Convention will be based on three basic pillars: government; facilitative mechanism; and financial mechanism, and the basic organization of which will include the following:

World Government (heading added)
a) The government will be ruled by the COP with the support of a new subsidiary body on adaptation, and of an Executive Board responsible for the management of the new funds and the related facilitative processes and bodies. The current Convention secretariat will operate as such, as appropriate.

To Redistribute Wealth (heading added)
b) The Convention’s financial mechanism will include a multilateral climate change fund including five windows: (a) an Adaptation window, (b) a Compensation window, to address loss and damage from climate change impacts [read: the “climate debt” Monckton refers to], including insurance, rehabilitation and compensatory components, © a Technology window; (d) a Mitigation window; and (e) a REDD window, to support a multi-phases process for positive forest incentives relating to REDD actions.

With Enforcement Authority (heading added)
c) The Convention’s facilitative mechanism will include: (a) work programmes for adaptation and mitigation; (b) a long-term REDD process; © a short-term technology action plan; (d) an expert group on adaptation established by the subsidiary body on adaptation, and expert groups on mitigation, technologies and on monitoring, reporting and verification; and (e) an international registry for the monitoring, reporting and verification of compliance of emission reduction commitments, and the transfer of technical and financial resources from developed countries to developing countries. The secretariat will provide technical and administrative support, including a new centre for information exchange [read; enforcement].

If this stuff doesn’t concern you, then you are a fool!
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November 13, 2009 5:46pm
Viking2

Change of subject for a mo!
Free-trade deal with Hong Kong announced
By John Armstrong
Breaking 3:15 PM Friday Nov 13, 2009

New Zealand has negotiated yet another free-trade agreement with an Asian economy, the latest being with Hong Kong.

The deal was announced today at the summit of Asian-Pacific leaders in Singapore and follows the unveiling of similar agreements with China, Malaysia and some Gulf states.

Prime Minister John Key, who is attending his second APEC meeting, said the Hong Kong deal was another link in the chain of such agreements.

“It is another gateway into the Asian region,” he said.

He said the agreement was largely based in the services sector and would benefit New Zealand companies seeking to grow in the Hong Kong market.

New Zealand and Hong Kong previously tried to hammer out a free trade agreement in 2002 but negotiations broke down. My question is this: When we also get the sane tax regime as Hong Kong?
When will we get a tax deed that limits the taxation that we have to pay ,just like Hong Kong?
Well I guess we won’t because the Nats. don’t think its necessary to limit their capacity to rape and plunder the tax payer. Hone is right. The white man does rape and plunder everything they touch. Especially our money.

On top of that English this morning has decided that the recession is coming to an end,(at his place maybe), and that he is going to close of the fiscal stimulus, just as Australia are going inti their downhill having staved it all off by spending their purse and now racking up debt.
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November 13, 2009 6:47pm
Luc Hansen

The fools and assorted weirdos are certainly out in force in the comments section of The Telegraph report linked by getstaffed!

My suggestion is to do what I have found useful. Go to the primary source, in this case, the IPCC, instead of just listening to or reading what others say about it. I must say I have certainly been enlightened and impressed by the quality of the various reports available.

For example, this is a report on the scientific basis of attributing significant climate change to anthropogenic causes:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm

And this is the Table of Contents page

Front Matter

Summary for Policymakers

Technical Summary

Frequently Asked Questions (extracted from chapters below)

Chapter 1 Historical Overview of Climate Change Science

Chapter 2 Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing

Chapter 3 Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change

Supplementary Material: Appendix 3.B. Techniques, Error Estimation and Measurement Systems (including references)

Chapter 4 Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground

Chapter 5 Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level

Chapter 6 Palaeoclimate

Supplementary Material: Appendix 6.A. Glossary for Terms Specific to Chapter 6

Chapter 7 Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry

Chapter 8 Climate Models and their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Appendix 8.A. Supplementary Figures and Tables

Chapter 9 Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

Supplementary Material: Appendices & References

Chapter 10 Global Climate Projections

Supplementary Material: Supplementary Details, Tables & Figures

Figures Showing Individual Model Results for Different Climate Variables

Chapter 11 Regional Climate Projections

Supplementary Material: Appendix 11. Tables, Figures, References (end)

Note that Chapter 9 Understanding and Attributing Climate Change has a section (9.3.3) entitled “What can be Learned from the last 1000 Years”

Wonderful bedtime reading. I look forward to all soundly based objections being discussed here soon.
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November 13, 2009 7:04pm
Hurf Durf

What the fuck is up with the Herald?

So I open up today’s shitrag to find this printed on the second page:

United States President Barack Obama may have some very good news after all for New Zealand exporters when he attends the annual Apec summit this weekend.

Indications firmed yesterday that the President will briefly touch on the potential expansion of the four-nation Trans Pacific Partnership, of which New Zealand is a founding member, into a much wider and more lucrative free trade agreement spanning the Pacific.

Mr Obama had been expected to outline his trade priorities in a speech tomorrow morning to the CEO Business Summit, which runs parallel to the meeting of the 21 Asia-Pacific economies.

But his late arrival in Singapore – he will miss a large chunk of discussions between the other leaders – meant that speech had to cancelled.

Totally ignoring the fact the Zero is a protectionist, put tariffs on Chinese tyres, made no movement on a Colombian free trade pact and that most people regard P4 as dead, the Huruld puts its very own pro-Zero spin on “indications.”

Fast forward ten hours later and there’s something about APEC on the TV news. New Zealand has a free trade pact with Hong Kong. The US is nowhere to be seen. Everyone is bemused about the no-show, leading Bill English to warn about the Americans falling off the gravy train. Off I go to the Huruld’s website to see if the super important story is in the appropriate section. Is it FUCK. It’s tucked away nicely in the politics section, away from the main news and anything regarding business. Lot of stuff prominently on the home page about HK though. Strange, considering the Huruld’s editor decided it was so important it belongs on page 2.

I KNEW when I saw it in the paper it was a load of junk. Tonight confirmed that. Why am I doing a better job than the Huruld? Why is the Huruld still in love-struck schoolgirl mode, seeking to mould Zero into what they’d like him to be rather than what everyone now realises him to be? Why is the Huruld even allowed to print such ill-informed junk such as what John Armstrong did? Still, this is the newspaper that prints Gwen Dyer, Johann Hari and Tapu Misa but even so, I shouldn’t be this pissed off. Goddamn.
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November 13, 2009 7:06pm
side show bob

Kris K, Slam dunk but this is what these dribbling lefty fools desire. We are dealing with evil bastards here and our own government is willing to sale it’s citizens into bondage. I bet these lefty clowns won’t be so clever when they wake up and realise the pot is boiling and their sorry arses are turning red. And your post about how “climate change” is effecting the mental health of children, I would include a fair group of adults? that post here are also suffering mental health issues due to climate change.
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November 13, 2009 7:10pm
Luc Hansen

Strange, I have just downloaded the Treaty of Copenhagen text (just google it) and can’t find any of the quote above. In fact, no section goes up to 38 clauses! I’m puzzled. And I’m very suspicious of the “added” bits, but that’s just me being a bit of conspiracy junkie, I guess 😉
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November 13, 2009 7:37pm
Luc Hansen

Now for something completely different, especially for those who want to have more right to hit their kids than they have to hit a fellow adult:

My daughter is now 14 mths old and discovering defiance, in fact, exulting in her new discovery of defiance! Of course, this frustrates me greatly, like when she deliberately, with her eyes firmly fixed on mine, and a little smile on her dial, turfs her plate of lovingly made, newly delivered food goodies off her high chair tray and onto the floor. As I am trying to pretend to be aghast.

In my first life as a father, a quick smack around her chops would have been my automatic recourse – as it was for any adult who upset me in those days too 🙂

Now, thanks to mouthing off in places like here, and down at the pub, and listening to Sue B and Plunket (not Sean) etc., I just have to suck it in and clean up the mess and, because she is just a baby, organise a new food offering for the little tyrant.

I guess it’s amazing how much we can change over 35 years!
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November 13, 2009 7:48pm
Kris K

Luc Hansen 7:37 pm,

Treaty of Copenhagen (draft):

If you download the PDF file it’s page 18 at the bottom.
Or just do a text search for ’38’ – it should be the first result.

Here is the link to the full DPF file (~2mb):
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/un-fccc-copenhagen-2009.pdf
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November 13, 2009 7:53pm
Kris K

… that’s PDF (not DPF) file.
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November 13, 2009 7:57pm
Pete George

getstaffed: Fact: He is a Swedish geologist and physicist , and formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change

International Union for Quaternary Research
July 21, 2004
Academician Yuri Osipov
President of the Russian Academy of Sciences
14 Leninskii pr
Moscow 119991, Russia
Dear Dr. Osipov:

It has come to my attention that Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner gave presentations at the seminar on climate change organized by the Russian Academy of Sciences at the request of President Vladimir Putin earlier this month. Dr. Mörner attacked the science of climate change, while claiming that he is President of the Commission on Sea Level Change of INQUA (International Union for Quaternary Research).

I am writing to inform you that Dr. Mörner has misrepresented his position with INQUA. Dr. Mörner was President of the Commission on Sea Level Change until July 2003, but the commission was terminated at that time during a reorganization of the commission structure of INQUA. Dr. Mörner currently has no formal position in INQUA, and I am distressed that he continues to represent himself in his former capacity. Further, INQUA, which is an umbrella organization for hundreds of researchers knowledgeable about past climate, does not subscribe to Mörner’s position on climate change. Nearly all of these researchers agree that humans are modifying Earth’s climate, a position diametrically opposed to Dr. Mörner’s point of view.

Sincerely,
John J. Clague
President, INQUA

http://www.edf.org/documents/3868_morner_exposed.pdf
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November 13, 2009 8:02pm
tom hunter

Hurf

Heh. I bought my first paper copy of the NZ Herald in a decade the other day.

I’d finally used up all the old papers for the starting the fireplace on the farm 🙂

But yeah – this is what is meant by their left-wing bias, even as they have puff pieces on Key that drive the lefties crazy. They’re not “ideological” in the sense of having a commitment to intellectually pushing left-wing ideas. They’re just comfortable with whatever statist is in power delivering “free” stuff to poor people. As long as that is left in place they can sleep at night and will publish brain-dead, rah-rah stuff about their latest “fave” and simply ignore any negative story about them.

The narrative is bad enough, but that it has to be so cheerleadingly moronic is the real killer.
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November 13, 2009 8:03pm
Luc Hansen

Hurf said: Still, this is the newspaper that prints Gwen Dyer, Johann Hari and Tapu Misa but even so, I shouldn’t be this pissed off. Goddamn.

Indeed they do, to their great credit but, to their shame, they persist with the old fool Garth George. I used to get a few letters into the Herald slagging off dear George.

Once I even fired off a letter just on the basis of the Wednesday one line promo of his Thursday column and I guessed what he was going to say so accurately it was published Friday!

But that all stopped when I got a warning email from the editor, another godbotherer in those days, not to call his mental health into question. 🙂 I left him alone after that because I didn’t want to hurt his feelings, poor fellow.

Anyway, why is negotiating a free trade deal such a big deal? Don’t you just sit down and say no more tariffs, sign here?
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November 13, 2009 8:05pm
Luc Hansen

Kris, I have downloaded v1.0.

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/press/reports/ngo-copenhagen-treaty-legal

Does that rank above a draft?
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November 13, 2009 8:07pm
Luc Hansen

Pete

Green karma for the research!
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November 13, 2009 8:09pm
Hurf Durf

a quick smack around her chops would have been my automatic recourse

Your first action would have been to smack your kid across the face? Goddamn, you suck.

Even the most ardent smacker here would think you’re an idiot for doing that, Luc.
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November 13, 2009 8:15pm
Luc Hansen

But Hurf, only lightly!

Unless she smacked me back!
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November 13, 2009 8:17pm
Luc Hansen

Kris

We are talking about different documents. The one you linked to is NOT the Treaty of Copenhagen and Monkton’s case seems to rest upon interpretation of one word, ‘government’. I wonder if we would call it ‘governance’?

Seems to me what the media call a ‘beat up’.
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November 13, 2009 8:21pm
philu

stuffed..!

it’s your turn..!

don’t cut and run on us now..!

(psstt..!..i think your ‘expert’ is standing naked..eh..?..

and you too..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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November 13, 2009 8:45pm
Jack5

Re Viking2 at 6.47 and later posts that mention the FTA with Hong Kong.

Hong Kong is a free port, and does not levy tariffs on any imports.

So what’s the big deal about getting an FTA with Hong Kong? We already have free access.
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November 13, 2009 9:40pm
Luc Hansen

Irony upon irony in Afghanistan. How the US funds the Taleban. Read it here –

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20091130/roston

For example, one contract is a 385 million dollar logistics contract to the son of the Afghan Minister of Defence, of which they say at least 10% goes to warlords and the Taleban to guarantee safe passage.

It just shows that nothing changes over time. Going back 3000 odd years, the Arabian caravan trade existed by paying tribute to the local warlords on their way to what we know now as Iraq, Iran, Turkey and beyond. It was also the original, but peaceful, Arab invasion of the Middle East as the traders set up outposts (familiar word?) to facilitate their trade.

And I guess it shows also that Aghanistan never needed to be bombed back to the stone age because it never emerged from it!
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November 13, 2009 9:58pm
Jack5

Re Getstaffed’s 12.30 post about the Stuff article suggesting NZ is about to experience an oil bonanza (link below)…

Upgrading of the estimated reserves of the offshore Manaia and Maari fields to 100 million barrels is welcome news and for a short time will put a dent (but no more) in our overseas trade deficit. But to suggest NZ is on the verge of a bonanza is gilding the lily.

100m barrels is significant, being equivalent to slightly less than 3.5 days production of the combined oilfields of Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US.

However, if there is a bonanza, why do NZ explorers find it so hard and expensive to attract offshore rigs to NZ?

It is a sad fact that NZ drillers are generally much more likely to strike gas than oil.

While the Manaia-Maari reserve upgrade is to be welcomed, let’s cut the bonanza crap. Leave that with Invercargill’s over-the-top mayor, who talks of his city’s becoming the new Dallas, before oil reserves are proven in the Great South Basin, before it is proved the structures contain significant amounts of oil rather than gas, before it is established it will be economic to extract oil there if and when it is found in production quantities.

The Stuff story:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3059510/New-Zealand-set-for-an-oil-bonanza
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November 13, 2009 10:19pm
Banana Llama

I honestly hope we don’t find large quantities of oil here, as a Nation we would suffer in the long run as it will allow further stupidity from minority’s and big government.
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November 13, 2009 10:27pm
Jack5

Further on the oil “bonanza”…

The new estimates put the Manaia and Maari combined reserves at 1.5 per cent the size of Norway’s proven oil reserves.
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November 13, 2009 10:30pm
getstaffed

Pete, So lemme get this right: Mörner claims to be the ‘former chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change’ while his title, according to John J. Clague (Not ‘Dr’ I note..) was ‘President of the [INQUA’s] Commission on Sea Level Change. And this is a big deal how? Clutching. At. Straws.

The guy is an expert and his opinion is not supported by the ‘majority’. Remember science is about fact and truth, not about consensus, so the idea that ‘majority’ has any meaning is just nuts. But that won’t stop the ‘majority’ (scientists or fellow travelers) working overtime to denigrate the source of contra viewpoints. Such is modern scientific method …

Further, anyone here have a CV? Yes? Well we ALL use past experience and credentials to lend weight to our future pursuits. That Clague laments Mörner doing so is too petty to dignify with comment.

Jack5: Agree with you. I’m told that Oil needs to sustain prices north of $150 a barrel (probably more with Obama slaying trees to print more greenbacks) for Great South Basin exploration and recovery to start to look viable.
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November 13, 2009 10:41pm
grumpyoldhori

Toad, one thing that is amusing is the lack of knowledge about NZ history among so many of the so called right wingers.
A civil war, real kiwis would fight, but I would expect a lot of immigrants to head to the airport chanting, run brothers.

Oh should that not be (E hoa, ka whawhai tonu ahau ki a koe, ake, ake!)
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November 13, 2009 10:47pm
Luc Hansen

getstaffed

Trouble is, the refutation of the deniers is evident on the IPCC website if only you could bring yourself to look at it.

But you can’t, can you?

Anymore than Kris can look at the evolutionary basis of the recorded desire for a “meaning” to a life that in the long term, has none, but in the short term, has heaps.

And just to re-present one fact: Clague positively DISOWNED your mate’s point of view. I agree with you that that is much more important than CV enhancement.
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November 13, 2009 10:53pm
getstaffed

Luc, that would be the same IPCC that falsifies and cherry-picks some datasets, while refusing to let others be transparently peer reviewed? The same IPCC that chooses start-and-end date of trend graphs to support their pre-determined outcomes? While I’m sure their website has some lovely global-warming-climate-change-sealevel-rising data, can you tell the wheat from the chaf? I can’t.

Mörner is perfectly entitled to refer to his past high-ranking role as part of his credentials. When these chaps are introduced at conferences the first 5 minutes is spent regaling the attendees with such information. You do it on your CV. I do it on mine. 100% normal and expected. Clague is just pissed because his predecessor didn’t see the world that way he did/does. That’s petty. So we didn’t agree on that at all!
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November 13, 2009 11:11pm
Luc Hansen

You should change your anon handle to Nelson and keep holding that telescope to your eye patch.
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November 14, 2009 1:02am
Pete George

So lemme get this right: Mörner claims to be the ‘former chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change’

You got it wrong – you have misquoted the letter.

while claiming that he is President of the Commission on Sea Level Change of INQUA

And this is a big deal how

– he continues to represent himself in his former capacity

It would be like Winston Peters going around saying he is an MP rather than a former MP.

Remember science is about fact and truth, not about consensus, so the idea that ‘majority’ has any meaning is just nuts.

Nearly all of these researchers agree that humans are modifying Earth’s climate, a position diametrically opposed to Dr. Mörner’s point of view.

The (growing) weight of evidence, and the huge majority of scientific opinion does have some meaning if you are prepared to look beyond just nuts you keep searching out.

But that won’t stop the ‘majority’ (scientists or fellow travelers) working overtime to denigrate the source of contra viewpoints. Such is modern scientific method …

The majority of scientists are working to find more evidence to test the current views, and as it happens most results keep supporting the majority view.

It is so simple to “denigrate” most contra viewpoints because they are so weak and poorly supported.

You seem to keep searching for straws to clutch to.
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November 14, 2009 6:15am
getstaffed

Pete, I see… Clague said “while claiming that he is President of the Commission on Sea Level Change of INQUA (International Union for Quaternary Research)

I think most judges would rebuff hearsay (eg he said that he said) as clutching at straws by the prosecution.

You’re very welcome to believe whatever you like, and clearly have plenty of faith in the ‘evidence’ that finds it’s way into the MSM.

But I don’t.

For my part there is sufficient evidence of tampering, falsehoods and other unethical scientific method in the support for soon-to-be catastrophic arthrogenic climate change that I choose skepticism over gullibility.

More of the former ensures better science, while more of the latter promotes naivety and exploitation.
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November 14, 2009 9:07am
getstaffed

Oh, also I might add that until 2 years ago I was a ‘warmist’, my belief based mostly on what the MSM have been dishing up around global warming / climate change.

Some inconsistencies and a bit of curiosity had me look a little deeper, at which point I discovered a large quantity of contra evidence and some rather alarming ‘warmist science’ that’s been packaged for public consumption.
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November 14, 2009 10:04am
Pete George

I don’t think you are displaying skepticism, you seem to have chosen a view and look for the relatively few things out there you think support that view.

Most scientists don’t say it is certain there will soon be catastrophic arthrogenic climate change. They are suggesting probability levels of certain things happen.

I try to be skeptical of aspects of all sides of the argument. When people post an anti climate change argument here I research it and more often than not find it is from a source with poor credibility in the field and has been using falsehoods and other unethical scientific method.

I am most skeptical of those who claim there is no problem and no effect and remain fixed on that view. The argument must be one of degree of effect (from negligible to major), whether we should try and do anything about it, and if we do anything what we should do.
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November 14, 2009 10:12am
philu

stuffed..do you have educational qualifications that support your rebuttal of the considered views of the vast majority of those who are actually academically qualified to judge this evidence..?

or ..as i suspect.. is it more of a ‘gut-feeling’..?

that you are you just pulling out of yr arse..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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November 14, 2009 10:41am
getstaffed

Vast majority? Where? If it was ‘vast’ once it’s diminishing now.

Witness this just published by Briston University: Controversial new climate change results.

Extract:

New data show that the balance between the airborne and the absorbed fraction of carbon dioxide has stayed approximately constant since 1850, despite emissions of carbon dioxide having risen from about 2 billion tons a year in 1850 to 35 billion tons a year now.

This suggests that terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans have a much greater capacity to absorb CO2 than had been previously expected.

The results run contrary to a significant body of recent research which expects that the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans to absorb CO2 should start to diminish as CO2 emissions increase, letting greenhouse gas levels skyrocket. Dr Wolfgang Knorr at the University of Bristol found that in fact the trend in the airborne fraction since 1850 has only been 0.7 ± 1.4% per decade, which is essentially zero.

Lots of similar findings now starting to appear, but they don’t make the MSM – not sensational enough. That in itself should be cause for concern.
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November 14, 2009 10:52am
getstaffed

Ooops. By Bristol University
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November 14, 2009 10:56am

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