iPredict this week
My weekly column:
Buy of the Week
Another politician in trouble is Australia Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull who has AUS.TURNBULL stock has risen from 50c to 57c after publication of a poll showing him polling as only the third most preferred Leader for the Liberals – amongst Liberal voters. Once the polls are that bad it is hard to survive. I think it is time to start buying.
Sell of the Week
An interesting swing against the trend for MIN.DEPART2.09 which pays out if a second Minister leaves the Ministry this year. The price had dropped to 11c on the 12th of October but over the last two days swung up to 15c. The Rugby World Cup broadcasting fiasco is what has probably led to the price increase, but with John Key directing a compromise I expect the price to fall again.
Wait And See
A similar stock MP.POWELL has also increased this week from 50c on 4 October to 68c today, paying out if a National List MP resigns and is replaced by Conway Powell. The NZ on Air demand that Melissa Lee’s company repay $80,000 has obviously triggered this price spike.
Whanganui
I short sold CITY.WHANGANUI at around 70c, but today purchased them at 50c to cover it. This means I think the price will rise. Why? Well after the fiasco over the Maori TV bid for the Rugby World Cup, I don’t think the Government is going to want to piss the Maori Party off any further by turning down a name change.
Top Trading Stocks
The Roy Morgan poll stocks had almost $14,000 of trades, following the payouts when the latest polls were published. The Auckland Bus Strike stock had $5,400 traded and the 91 petrol price just over $4,000.
Cheers,
David
Disclosure
David’s current iPredict positions are:
BROWN.RESIGN Short, CITY.WHANGANUI Short, DL.KING.09 Short, FASA04.REPEAL Short, GST.UP.JULY10 Short, LEAD.GOFF.09 Short, MAYOR.BROWN Long, MIN.DEPART2.09 Short, MP.ANDERTON Short, MP.PETERS.2011 Short, NAT.MAORI.09 Short, OBAMA.DISAP.4NOV Short, OCR.INCR.APR10 Short, OCR.INCR.JAN10 Short, PETERS.LEADER Long, PM.2011.NATIONAL Long, UK2010.CON.ABS Long, UK2010.CON.MAJ Short, ZIM.MUGABE Short
Links to stocks in this commentary: AUS.TURNBULL, MIN.DEPART2.09, MP.POWELL, CITY.WHANGANUI