October 20, 2009 11:00am by David Farrar

Goff blames honeymoon

Labour leader Phil Goff says National is still enjoying a honeymoon with the public after a new poll showed it had double the support of his party.

TV3’s poll of 1000 voters last night put the National Government’s support at an exceptionally high 59.9 per cent compared to Labour’s 27.2 per cent.

A honeymoon is defined as:

any new relationship characterized by an initial period of harmony and goodwill

Now the media have run multiple stories since May declaring the honeymoon over. There has been a Ministerial resignation, a tax cut cancelling budget, MP investigations, tensions with confidence and supply partners, the Auckland Super City, Maori Seats, rising unemployment etc etc.

Mr Goff said the poll covered a recess period when it was hard for Labour to get publicity and before recent controversies over rugby broadcasting and ACC.

The recess can be a factor, but hell you are talking 2% or 3% on a 33% gap. The poll included coverage up to last Wednesday which covered pretty much all the worst of the rugby broadcasting fiasco, and a fair bit of the well signalled ACC changes. Sure it didn’t cover the failure to have the numbers in the house, but Labour are deluding themselves if they think one single issue is going to change things much – the public don’t follow House issues anywhere like we do.

“This is a new government, it’s in its first year of government, they still have the appearance of being fresh, of being people-friendly. We know from experience that the gloss wears off,” Mr Goff told Radio New Zealand.

It has been 11 months since the election. If you compare to other first term Governments, you have:

June 85 – Govt behind by 2%
Sep 91 – Govt behind by 20%
Oct 00 – Govt behind by 4%
Oct 09 – Govt ahead by 33%

Anyone see the problem in Phil’s theory?

“It’s a difficult stage of the political cycle for the Labour Party, we don’t get exuberant about high polls we don’t get deeply depressed about low polls.

Here is their fundamental problem? They think it is just a stage. They think all Labour has to do is wait for people to realise their mistake.

Perhaps Phil could explain why after 11 months in the job, he can barely make half the support level of someone who is no longer even in politics, and now lives in the United States. Is that also just a stage of the cycle?