Gap increases to 33%

Tonight’s TV3 poll has National 33% ahead of Labour. And this poll was taken during one of the messiest periods on record for National. It is consistent with the Roy Morgan poll published earlier this week that has a 29.5% gap.

This is the equal highest in a Tv3 poll, the same as they got in Feb 2009. In Feb 2009 the Government was very much in honeymoon mode. Since then there has been a budget that cancelled tax cuts and super fund contributions, a huge by-election loss, a Ministerial scandal, the smacking referendum, investigations of two backbench MPs, controversy over the Auckland Super City, Bill English’s housing problems, infighting between Government support parties, and the Rugby World Cup fiasco. And despite all that Labour is still at 27%!

Since 1974, the only time a party has had a bigger gap than 33% was the May to Aug 1990 Heylens for National. Note this was pre multi-party MMP.

The poll also reveals that John Key is at 56% as preferred PM, and Phil Goff a very distant third at 5%, around half Helen Clark at 8%. Now there is something wrong when you have been Opposition Leader for a year, and you can just make half of your predecessor who doesn’t even live here anymore.

The 51% gap between Key and Goff is also unprecedented. The closest we have seen is a 41% gap in February 2003 between Clark and English. So the gap is 10% higher than a poll taken after National had its worst ever election result, and in the year English was rolled.

When TV3 had similar results in February 2009, I blogged:

“Now a week is a long time in politics, and the next election is 33 months away. Goff is under no threat for now. But if he doesn’t make some traction towards the end of the year, he may find the summer of 2010 is BBQ at Dave’s place”

Up until now I have consistently said that I think Goff is very likely to lead Labour into the 2011 election. I am now thinking these last two polls have changed things.

As a comparison, in Australia Malcolm Turnbull is considered unlikely to survive until their election, which is only a year away.  And the Coalition is only 15.5% behind the Labor Party – not 33%.

There is no clear successor to Goff, and there was a covenant that he would be safe until the election. However I suspect several senior MPs will be texting New York asking for guidance, as to how long they should hold off for.

Personally I don’t think Goff is the issue for Labour – he may just become the scapegoat. I think Labour continues to be massively out of touch with the electorate. They don’t realise the global recession changed the political landscape.

Issues like RWC broadcasting is a beltway issue. It may not be at the time of the RWC, but it is for now. The economy is still the number one issue.

Now Labour is on the wrong side of spending cuts. Even Gordon Brown has caught on that the public are now pro spending cuts. But Labour keep positioning themselves as the enemies of fiscal responsibility.

Likewise on ACC, they think the public are on their side on the proposed changes. They do not realise how many people resent the amount they are being forced to pay in ACC levies, for little benefit.

And even with industrial disputes, Labour has misread much of the public mood. Labour have got involved with almost every industrial dispute in NZ, supporting demands for higher wages. They do not realise that most of NZ recognises a recession with growing unemployment is a time for restraint. People are more worried about keeping jobs, than pay increases.

A couple of years ago these issues would all have been winners for Labour. In boom times with massive surpluses people did want more spending, wider ACC coverage, and higher wages for all workers. But Labour’s inability to understand that the global recession has changed things, is why New Zealanders are saying they are irrelevant.  Labour are relying on the old Muldoon adage that the average person wouldn’t know a deficit if they tripped over one. Today people are more economically literate and when you have a $10 billion deficit, policies of tax more, spend more and borrow more don’t resonate.

If Goff wants to survive, he needs to reposition Labour into a more realistic position. I think he personally may understand this, but whether he can carry his caucus with him is the challenge.