Treasury on emissions target

A few people have tried to portray the Government’s target of a 10% to 20% reduction over 1990 levels as some sort of half hearted wimp out. In fact it is right at the top of what is achievable without lunacies such as shooting cows.

Matthew Hooton pointed out in NBR how massive this target is:

The 10-20% target announced by John Key, Nick Smith and Tim Groser this week is far more radical than it sounds.  By 2020, under business as usual, New Zealand’s net emissions are forecast to be up 40% over 1990 levels.

This means the Greens’ 40% target cut over the 1990 baseline is in fact a 57% cut over the base case.  National’s 20% target would require a 43% cut.

In other words, National has offered up a proposed cut that is three-quarters of what the most swivel-eyed neo-Marxists in the Green movement have been demanding.

This is why Labour does not dare say what their target would have been.

Now NZPA report what Treasury says the target should be:

But Treasury recommended a target range with an unconditional target of 8 percent reduction on a base year of 2005.

This was equivalent to emissions 15 percent above the 1990 level because New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions increased 24.7 percent between 1990 and 2005.

So the Government has gone for a target of 10% to 20% below 1990 levels, when their official advice was aim for 15% above 1990 levels. So again, if an eco marxist tries to claim this target is some sort of wimpy sell out, go drop a cow on them. If anything the Government could be criticised for too ambitious a target.

Incidentally I would recommend people read Professor Sir Peter Gluckman’s summary of the issues on climate change.