Labour’s gap

Tony Milne blogs:

I don’t expect to see much movement in Labour’s polling for at least another 12 months.  The question is, can Labour do enough in the next 28 months to increase its support by the 6% or so needed to form a coalition Government with other partners?  And will there be any partners?  That’s a topic for another post.

Here is Labour’s problem. If we take the last Roy Morgan poll,  then Nat/ACT has 54.5% and Lab/Gre 40.5%. I am assuming Anderton and Dunne retire.

Now let say Labour gains 6%, all at National’s expense. That has Nat/ACT at 48.5% and Lab/Gre at 46.5%. Assume Maori Party gets five seats (two overhang) and the seats are Nat/ACT 60, Lab/Gre 57 and Maori 5.

Now if Labour can not convince the Maori Party to support them, then 57 seats is not enough. They need 62.

So without the Maori Party a 6% improvement from 33% won’t get them there. They need a 10% improvement to 43% – a figure they have never achieved in an election under MMP.

It as you work this out, you realise the importance of what Duncan Garner blogged about Labour’s tactics working against their own interest.