DC Wrapup

I’ve now left DC and am in New York. I will be back in DC for their Independence Day party on the 4th of July. Before I move onto NYC stuff, a wrap-up of the political stuff in DC.

The US Capitol. Unlike NZ, the actual representatives have their offices elsewhere. I was surprised how easy it is to get into the Congressional offices. There is a security scan, but once you are past that you can just walk whereeveryou want, and pop into any office. Quite different to NZ where you need to be approved by an office to be allowed in the building.

Anyway first some general political chatter I picked up:

• Even if there is a swing to the Republicans in 2010, no way they can win the House or the Senate back. Most of the Senate seats coming up in 2010 are held by Republicans and they have five incumbents retiring and only one Democrat retiring. Incidentially 23 of the 100 Senators are in their 70s, 80s or 90s – incumbency is useful.
• Obama’s ratings remain high, but increasingly polarised.
• The big and maybe only issue in 2010 will be the economy. Obama promoted the stimulus package on the basis it would stop unemployment reaching certain levels that have now been exceeded. The bailout of the banks is very unpopular also.
• The Republican frontrunner for 2012 is Mitt Romney. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty also a strong contender.
• Sarah Palin is definitely going to try for the 2012 nomination. She won’t get it but may do well enough. A lot may depend on if Huckabee stands as they compete for support bases.
• Near universal consensus that the US will be unable to ever have the Government get back into surplus and at some stage they will start printing money which will fuel inflation and devalue the dollar.

Back to the rest of the Freedom Forum. A number of excellent speakers.

30 years House veteran Jim Sensenbrenner gave us a US political update. Sensenbrenner is one of eight Congressman from Wisconsin and won in 2008 with 80% of the vote.

We also had a UK politics update from British MP Philip Dunne.  While the Conservatives are well ahead in the polls, it is quite possible there will be a hung Parliament as Labour has an effective gerrymander with seat sizes. The Conservatives need to beat Labour by 5% to get more seats and by 9% to get an absolute  majority.

We has two expert speakers on the US healthcare reforms. There is considerable opposition to Obama’s proposals, but even less satisfaction with the status quo. One of the speakers was Robert Moffit who has been asked by two dozen states to help them with their healthcare systems.

On the economic side we were equally well served with an address by Stephen Moore, who founded the Club for Growth and is a member of the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board. Also heard from the former Secretary of Commerce.

The two highlights for me were Jonah Goldberg and Grover Norquist.

Jonah Goldberg is the editor-at-large of National Review Online and blogs many times a day at The Corner. He is a hugely entertaining and provocative speaker. He told us about how he got sick of being called a fascist and Nazi by left wingers for years on end, so it motivated him to write his book – Liberal Fascism. The book made No 1 on the NY Times best seller list.

Despite the irreverence of Goldberg, he also backs his thesis up with a mass of research about prominent hard left supporters of Italian fascism and German National Socialism before WWII. I’m not going to cover all the arguments here but am going to order a copy from Amazon as Jonah’s speech intrigued me enough to want to read his research for myself.

There is a wider issue Goldberg touches on – that is the tendency of the media and left to label anyone bad as “right wing”, such as Putin.

Grover Norquist (whom I’m met a couple of times previously) was the most relevant for me. Grover is arguably the most influential lobbyist on the right in the USA. Grover expanded on the main political battle is between coalitions. He aptly names them the “Leave Us Alone” Coalition and the “Takings” Coalition.

In the US, these get represented by the two major parties. Grover points out that the main parties have become these broad coalitions because of the US political system, quipping that in most European countries a party that polls 2% may get to pick the Prime Minister, while in the US a party that polls 2% is officially nuts 🙂

Grover says the prime motivation of members of the Leave Us Alone Coalition is they want the Government to leave them alone. Members tend to be taxpayers, business owners, gun owners, home schoolers, stock owners, Police and military, and communities of faith.

The Taking Coalition is (this is the US) trial lawyers, union leaders, government grant recipients, welfare beneficiaries and those who administer the “social welfare industrial complex”, government employees, Govt funded NGOs and businesses seeking favours for their business.

There is a strong parallel back to NZ, with this analysis. Those of us on the right have been well aware that the more people who become dependent on the Government, the more likely it is they will vote for a party that promises to tax other people more, to spend on the takers. The goal is a permanent majority of 60% dependent on the other 40%.

This is why Labour opposes the private sector at every opportunity. This is why families who earn over $100,000 now receive social welfare payments. This is why the state sector has grown so fast and so big. This is why Labour always go for inefficient universal benefits rather than targeted benefits. This is why they want to crowd out the private sector in education and health, why Cullen nationalised assets etc.

Whether or not you agree with Grover;s exact descriptions his thesis is correct. And long-term sucess for the centre-right in NZ will be determined by ensuring that there are more people in the “Leave Us Alone” coalition than in the “Taking” coalition.

Now this can be challenging. The “Taking” coalition has hundreds if not thousands of lobby groups and NGOs all demanding more money from taxpayers. There are very very few groups that speak up on behalf of the “Leave Us Alone” coalition. That is because most members of it – well they just want to be left alone – they only engage in politics when the Government annoys them enough (anti-smacking law).