iPredict on Richard Worth

iPredict has stock on whether Worth will leave Parliament in 2009 and the market thinks he will – at 78%.

I am not sure the odds are that high. With the earlier allegation somewhat unravelling (but not totally), it is hard to see what will trigger him being forced to quit. However he may decide to quit anyway rather than spend two years miserable as a backbencher. I’d personally not price the stock at over 60%.

There is also a stock on whether a second Minister will depart in 2009 and that is at 39%. Again I think that is too high and would put it at 25% at this stage.