When will the recession end?

The Herald reports:

The views of Finance Minister Bill English and Prime Minister John Key on when New Zealand will emerge from the recession are in stark contrast.

Mr English said yesterday that he thought New Zealand was “unlikely to aggressively grow out of it”.

But Mr Key says that by this time next year New Zealand would be starting to come out of it “reasonably aggressively”.

Mr Key made his comment on March 22 on TVNZ’s Q & A; Mr English made his comments on the same programme yesterday.

Asked about the difference, Mr English said Mr Key “has always had a very positive view about New Zealand. I certainly wouldn’t want to say he is wrong but he is setting a high hurdle here and it’s our job as a Government to meet those expectations – that’s a feature of John Key’s leadership.”

To some degree the differences are not surprising, as there is a calculated division of roles where the PM is more aspirational and the Finance Minister more pessimistic, as he has to try and get back to a balanced budget over time.

But having said that, it is not helpful to have those different roles expressed quite so bluntly. The Government should have some set lines that all Ministers adhere to on the recession and eventual recovery – such as always talking about a range of scenarios. Now you may have the PM focus more on the more optimistic scenario and the Finance Minister more on the more pessimistic scenario – but you want them sounding like they are talking about the same country!