Blogs & Mt Albert

There has been quite a bit of chatter about the role of blogs in the Mt Albert by-election, so I thought it would be useful to put them in perspective as I think people are over-reaching.

Matt McCarten wrote on Sunday (and Laila Harre also said much the same on radio yesterday):

What is disheartening is that Labour’s action wasn’t from a place of principled strategy but the result of hysteria generated by their political opponents.

I salute the right-wing bloggers, who mischievously instigated a destabilising campaign against Labour by writing that National could win Mt Albert if Twyford was the Labour Party nominee. Twyford is a current list MP. Their genius was in pointing out that if Twyford won – as was widely assumed – then Judith Tizard, as the next-highest place list candidate, would be entitled to return to Parliament to replace Twyford’s vacant list spot.

The bloggers claimed that Twyford’s campaign would be overshadowed by the furore of the supposedly unpopular Tizard slipping back into Parliament.

Privately, none of the bloggers believed that their strategy would amount to much, but were incredulous when certain media players started taking it seriously.

What gobsmacked the bloggers particularly – and fatally for Twyford – was that the Labour Party panicked.

Poneke goes even further and credits me with all sorts of “machinations”.

While I think the blogs have played a role in Mt Albert to date, I think people over-state that role. I’ll start from the beginning.

When I first blogged on the Tizard timebomb in December, I didn’t invent it out of thin air. I did hear from someone in Labour that it was an issue they were looking at. Back then, to be fair, I don’t think they were overly concerned, it was more “We need to work out how to deal with this so Twyford can stand”.

I then went away did a bit of research, and blogged on this issue, also pointing out the next four on the list after Tizard were almost as problematic also. Incidentially during this time I have never attacked Judith personally – I’ve just pointed out she didn’t have a positive public appeal.

Now there is debate about whether the Tizard timebomb was real or not. Did Labour panic over nothing, or was it a real threat? Actually it as a bit of both – it is all about probabilities.

Other bloggers like Danyl M make the case that as 45% of NZers don’t even know Phil Goff is the Leader of the Labour Party, then it is ridicolous to think that many residents in Mt Albert would know who is next in line on the Labour list, let alone have it affect their vote. And he may be right.

But what Danyl can’t dismiss is there was a chance that in the absence of major policy issues, there could be a lot of media focus on the Tizard timebomb, especially with coverage from the bloggers.

Let us say there was a 90% chance that Tizard being next List MP in would not be an issue, only a 10% chance it would be. Labour may have decided that is an acceptable risk.

What bloggers did do, is increase that risk. They didn’t invent it out of thin air. It only works, because it has some credibility. But by highlighting the issue, we may have increased the risk of it becoming a major issue from say 10% to 20% – and that 20% may have exceeded Labour’s comfort level.

The other role the bloggers played, is that rather than allow Labour to work out a quiet behind the scenes compromise with Judith, we made sure it played out in public to some degree.

So yes the bloggers did have some influence over Labour’s decision regarding Mt Albert, it is considerably less than McCarten, Harre and Poneke ascribe. At the end of the day, it was a real risk.

Likewise over the selection of Norman as a candidate. Yes I did push that concept, but I dont think one should confuse correlation with causation.And the advice is generally what is best for the Greens – they do need to be less of a lapdog for Labour, they do need an electorate seat. It is not at all impossible Norman could win the seat, if they push strategic voting such as happened in Epsom in 2005 and Wellington Central in 1996.

My advice is not necessarily beneficial to National. A strong Green candidacy could push National into third place. Also National probably would have preferred that nothing be said about the Tizard issue until after Twyford was selected. They would have loved having Tizard back in the House to torment Goff over as an example of rejuvenation.

Even if National somehow win the by-election (something I regard as very unlikely – it is Labour’s safest seat, we are in a recession, and a Government has not won a by-election off an Opposition in at least 70 years) then it would finish Goff off before the 2011 election, and if you did a poll of National MPs they would prefer Goff remain Leader.

So yes blogs are having a bit of influence, but it is over-stated generally. And no it is not some sort of master campaign plan – more livign true to the motto of Fomenting Happy Mischief.

In line with that, I have this banner from a reader: