General Debate 4 February 2009

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Ross Miller

Ok … for all you politcal junkies out there …. which US President, as a Congressman, won the endorsements of both the Democratic and Republican Parties when he stood for re-election.

You might be suprised.
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February 4, 2009 10:43am
PhilBest

Like the estimable Richard Prebble, I’ve Been Thinking.

I’ve been thinking specifically about the objections that have been raised to the idea of a drop in property values now, to historically normal and “affordable” levels. The main objection concerns the effect on existing property owners.

Consider: what difference does it really make, what the property is “worth”? The critical point is, whether the property owner can continue to service the mortgage on that property. They bought the property, or arranged their mortgage, having that in mind. Falling interest rates have already actually given them a windfall.

Whether the property is “worth” $200,000 or $400,000 is really immaterial. The lending institution is not going to foreclose if it knows that it will lose heavily as a result. Some years of “waiting game” will need to be played as economic recovery and increases in income, filter through to REAL recovery in property values. The alternative is a “waiting game” being played in the opposite direction, with property values deflating slowly for years, like in Japan. Also, in the event of selling up and buying elsewhere, the effect of buying and selling in the same market is neutral – it is only first home buyers who are impacted by actual price levels.

The difference we need to confront, is whether existing property owners continue to service their mortgages exactly as they planned, while the economy remains moribund and young people remain locked out of housing ownership; OR, they continue to service their mortgages with a boom in low-cost housing going on and young people buying affordable new houses. The only differences that arise are matters of regret and spite rather than actual financial well-being; in fact, financial well-being will be better overall, and improving faster, in the latter situation.

Some people may choose bankruptcy if the result is an improvement in their final financial condition. Having this option is a “plus”, not a “minus”; if you can choose bankruptcy to rid yourself of a $400,000 mortgage, and buy another home for $200,000 afterwards, or rent at more affordable levels while saving money, would you not prefer to do that? At present, you do not have that option; you are a slave to a high mortgage on an over-valued property.

By maintaining existing “values” using fiscal and monetary policy that have negative side-effects, we just perpetuate the worst of all worlds that were the reasons for the crisis; a housing shortage, unaffordable housing, and a building sector that has closed down and laid off all its staff; and all 3 things getting worse rather than better.

This is so logical, the question is why governments would NOT use Keynes’ idea of “building our way out of depression”. Strange, given that Keynes’ other ideas seem to be so popular. But look at it this way: if we want economic “stimulus”, what would work better than building houses? Employment would be provided. The finance sector would have no difficulty about financing the purchase of realistically valued homes; say, $200,000 new homes on the edges of existing metro areas.

This is entirely possible if government acts to remove the obstacles to it; the restrictions on the use of land, and the compliance and regulatory costs. The building industry could regain the economies of scale it has lost and even realise new ones. None of this need involve a cent of taxpayers money, unlike all the politicians preferred alternatives. Maybe a stimulus to the building sector in the form of tax incentives, would hurry the process up; given the lack of revenue from the building sector now, the result would certainly not be revenue-negative.
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February 4, 2009 10:50am
cha

John Quincy Adams?.
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February 4, 2009 10:51am
CraigM

Obama DID not know that 4 of the people he wanted in cabinet were either criminals, liars, or cheats. How could he, they are Democrats FFS, they are good honest people.

Daschle is the latest to withdraw due to his wee six figure tax avoidence problem. It should be OK cause he paid it in the end and Obama still wanted him! At least Daschle showed some politicial skills and realised he would be a lame duck.

Killefer also gone for tax issues.
Richardson gone because of a small issue. He is being investigated for corruption.
Gietner was accepted after he paid his MISSING taxes to the IRS. He didn’t walk on principal. Clearly a man attracted to the baubles of office.

What a wonderful judge of character Mr Obama is turning out to be. Add the above to the list of his Terrorist friends and radical preacher and surely you have to start to wonder about the mans character.

Add the very dubious Mr Jaga , the Dem. Governor from Illinois to the mix and the Democrats sure do come up smelling like roses……..covered in manure.
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February 4, 2009 10:51am
Glutaemus Maximus

General Debate:

What is Winston Peters doing?

When will he pay all the money back?

Will he defend himself against the accusations of graft in Fish, Scampi, and Racing?

What else has he done, and does he know?

We have the right to know?
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February 4, 2009 11:02am
big bruv

Today sees the sentencing of Nia Glassy’s killers, the Curtis brothers, Lisa Kuka and the rest of the low life will learn their fate.

The Curtis brothers should be facing the death penalty, there is no reason on this earth to keep them alive.
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February 4, 2009 11:20am
dime

from the herald

The Crown has asked that the brothers convicted of murdering 3-year-old Nia Glassie by subjecting her to months of abuse receive minimum jail terms of 17 to 18 years.
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February 4, 2009 11:23am
Glutaemus Maximus

Off with their heads said Queenie!
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February 4, 2009 11:24am
dime

so whats Key going to announce today?

Rate cut for business? or just extending taxt time to help with cashflow?
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February 4, 2009 11:26am
casual watcher

Not one to gossip… but…. is it true that our former PM’s living arrangements have changed since the election and she is now not living the lie she would have had us believe in the past. I also hear Mr Clark has been behaving disgracefully again. This could be old news but it is new to me.

[DPF: This rumour started the day after the election and has as much substance as all the other rumours – which is none]
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February 4, 2009 11:33am
PhilBest

Tut tut tut, casual watcher, tut tut tut……

New to me, too. Presumably if there is anything in it I’ll get to read all about it in one of Wishart’s publications before long.
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February 4, 2009 11:40am
getstaffed

It’s here dime.
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February 4, 2009 11:41am
CraigM

cw….gossip isn’t nice.

Do you have a source?

Because I would love to have a laugh about this if it is the truth (as opposed to gossip).
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February 4, 2009 11:42am
dime

casual watcher – ive heard rumors. can you elobarate?
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February 4, 2009 11:42am
big bruv

Yes please Casual, I would also love to see the source of this rumour, if it is indeed true then I am going to have a lot of fun winding up the pinko’s.
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February 4, 2009 11:47am
Razork

When did education become more about the teachers than the kids?

#1. Single mum employee has had her 8 yr old boy in holiday program for last few weeks after taking 3 weeks at Xmas for holidays. School started on Monday so no holiday program but it’s a teachers only day so she has to take day off work.
There is a teachers only day every term this year so thats 4 days off work she wouldn’t have taken other wise.
#2. Youngest daughter (14) has to go to school on Monday for 1 hour in uniform at 9am to be told what classes she is in.
Nothing else happens and she is sent home at 10am to report back to school next day.
The rest of this week now has “form time until lunchtime” while teachers put together learning programs while kids do PE and swimming in the afternoon.
#3. Eldest daughter (16) also has to report to school on Monday in uniform for 1 hour at 1pm to be told what classes she is in. Nothing else happens. she then has Tuesday off and has half days today and tomorrow with school properly staring next week.

In addition to this both my girls have reduced hours on one day a week. School starts 30 mins late on Tuesdays for assembly (why) so kids catch normal bus then hang aroung mall until 9am then finishes at 2pm on wednesdays so kids who do sport can. Those who don’t do sports can leave at 2pm which isn’t ideal for the young ones.

It is logistically an inconvience at best for my family, but the impact it has on single parents or a family with small children where both parents work is a nightmare.
I know teachers work hard and wouldn’t be one for quids, but why can’t “teachers only days” be in the holidays?
Why can’t they take one weeks less leave and actually be 100% ready for the kids when school starts?
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February 4, 2009 11:49am
BlueDevil

Philbest – I’ve been thinking too

You are correct that if you can service the loan and the bank doesn’t take fright and you don’t have to sell, the changing property prices wont affect you (unless you have borrowing against the house to balance the budget). The falling interest rates are a bonus but I wouldn’t rely on them staying down for long if the Govt goes on a borrowing spree.
There seems to be a paradox being created. Each govt seems to think they can borrow their way to prosperity but the delevageing of debt is what got us in to the problem. Where are these govts going to borrow from if everyone is borrowing?
The possibilities are:
Squeese out the private sector so firm (and people) can’t borrow or refinance and go under.
Compete with higher and higher interest rate with other Govt issuers.
‘quantitative easing’ ie print money (the Zimbabwe solution) which will cause devalution, inflation and high interest rates.
The amount that Australia plans to borrow over the next 3 years to keep the good times rolling would seem to indicate they need to be a very lucky country for things not to end up going very wrong.
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February 4, 2009 12:10pm
Inventory2

Two reasons Razork – NZEI and PPTA
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February 4, 2009 12:15pm
big bruv

“When did education become more about the teachers than the kids?”

Early 80’s
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February 4, 2009 12:21pm
dime

anyone here refusing to pay school fees?

cause they offend me.. i dont have kids.. not sure if i would pay school fees if i did though. i pay enough freakin tax!
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February 4, 2009 12:22pm
Ross Miller

Thank you to the person who gave me bad kharma just for posing a trivia question. I mean what prompted that?

For cha, good try, fail.

The answer is Richard Milhous Nixon … California 12th Congressional District 1948.
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February 4, 2009 12:26pm
David Farrar

Ross: fascinating.

I might hire you to be my political trivia quiz of the day master 🙂
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February 4, 2009 12:31pm
Ross Miller

dime … fascinating comment. “anyone here refusing to pay school fees … cause they offend me”

followed by …

“I don’t have kids … not sure if I would pay school fees if i did though. i pay enough freakin tax”

So, you are offended by people who don’t pay school fees but you might not pay them yourself????????????

Bet you loose the arguments you have with yourself too.
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February 4, 2009 12:33pm
Razork

Dime spends a lot of time debating with him self.
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February 4, 2009 12:37pm
llew

anyone here refusing to pay school fees?

cause they offend me.. i dont have kids..

I’d be offended by having to pay school fees too, if I didn’t have kids.
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February 4, 2009 12:48pm
grumpyoldhori

PhilBest, why does my cynical side tell me that the banks will want the government to make mortgages still owed after bankruptcy.

In some ways the problem is worse than what you have posted, there
have been utter fools in Auckland who bought 400K houses to be rental properties believing the shortfall in the rent paid would be more than made up by the house increasing in value by another 100k over two years
Now a number of them are at risk of losing the family home as well because of the drops in value.

Some would argue they should be bailed out, I believe in the old adage that greed brings it’s own rewards.
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February 4, 2009 12:59pm
Buggerlugs

Is anyone else fucked off that Telecom haven’t released the details of what new phones they are going to unleash in June? If it turns out to be like being offered a great birthday present only to discover you got a gift wrapped dog turd, they will haemmorage customers to the new players.
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February 4, 2009 1:01pm
dime

ross – the school fees offend me snapperhead. not the people that pay them.

razork you midget. be nice.
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February 4, 2009 1:07pm
Portia

Glutaemus Maximus (1205)
February 4th, 2009 at 11:02 am

GM, Winston is no longer a public figure. There IS no reason to discuss him.

I know life’s not quite as colourful without him. But…

… It’s over. He’s over. Gone, in fact.

You said that’s what you wanted.

Didn’t you?

Deep breaths now –

And… Just… Let… Him… Go…
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February 4, 2009 1:08pm
Buggerlugs

And… Just… Let… Him… Go…off the Auckland Harbour Bridge…(but go through his pockets first in case he has a) $158,000 in cash and b) the Ministerial Services credit card
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February 4, 2009 1:18pm
MyNameIsJack

“Is anyone else fucked off that Telecom haven’t released the details of what new phones they are going to unleash in June? ”

Nope, couldn’t give a tinker’s cuss what Telescum do.

Why would anyone wait for telescum to “unleash” a phone that’s already in the market?

The quicker telescum is broken and up and sold off, the better.
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February 4, 2009 1:20pm
barry

Fonterra announces – due to recent results on their auction site – that the current milk prices are ‘Unsustainable”.

Look like the milk price is going to head below $4.99. As I believe that this company is run by idiots (anyone can run a company when things are going well, but the real test are when things are tough – when idiots fail) this ongoing problem of world prices might be whats needed to get rid of these bums.

Now Tatua (accorcding to yesterdays Waikato Times) consulted with their suppliers and their customers LAST YEAR about what they should do when the prices dropped – they could see it coming and started to plan for it. They hadnt gone stupid and invested in a corrupt country and had a serious problem diverting their attention just when it was really needed on the upcoming financial challenges. Frankly the best thing that could happen to fonterra is that it fly to bits and well get some diversity in our dairy industry.
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February 4, 2009 1:36pm
Tauhei Notts

Barry,
Chris Lee on his site has some interesting facts about how economically illiterate the Fonterra management are.
They repaid 5.1% debt; now they borrow at 7.75%.
They are costing my cow cocky mates hundreds of thousands.
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February 4, 2009 1:43pm
Inventory2

Vector is selectively cutting power to parts of Auckland today. Have we officially joined the Third World?

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2009/02/deja-vu-all-over-again.html
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February 4, 2009 1:53pm
CraigM

yes I2, we have.

Our largest city relies on shonky underground cables and 35 year old generators.

The power industry have paid some huge dividends to the government over the past decade though, so it’s all good.
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February 4, 2009 2:27pm
casual watcher

philbest – rumour and gossip are the same thing aren’t they ? Heard from a friend of a friend who had a little bird whisper in his ear etc etc. Story goes that Mr Clark got kicked out around xmas time after another indiscretion along the lines of LA but this time in HK. He has become a liability and so a new housemate has moved in which just reflects what is happening anyway. I make no judgement and don’t care one way or the other but politically a major fraud has been perpetrated by Mr and Mrs Clark over the years.

[DPF: Please desist from spreading these rumours here]
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February 4, 2009 2:52pm
Inventory2

CraigM said “yes I2, we have.

Our largest city relies on shonky underground cables and 35 year old generators.

The power industry have paid some huge dividends to the government over the past decade though, so it’s all good.”

When Mrs Inventory and I visited Ethiopia a year ago, the same sort of thing was happening there. The realisation that Addis Ababa and Auckland have similar infrastructural problems makes me glad to live in Wanganui 🙂
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February 4, 2009 2:52pm
big bruv

I see the low life scum who killed Nia Glassie have received life with a 17.5 year non parole period.

17.5 years is a bloody joke, we really need to pressure Key and the Nat’s to do something about our weak Judiciary, it is simply not good enough.
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February 4, 2009 3:11pm
CraigM

I’m sure I wouldn’t want to spend 17.5 years in jail, but I really do think that “natural life’ should be an option for the judges in cases like this.

Being baby killers they probably will either spend many years alone or die early. Either way I hope it hurts like hell. May it remind them every minute of every day what they did to that poor baby. I hope they have a living hell, before heading off to the real one.
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February 4, 2009 3:27pm
big bruv

CraigM

Why not end their living hell by placing bullet between their eyes?
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February 4, 2009 3:35pm
casual watcher

Mr Farrar. If this is not just rumour doesn’t it have some relevance to the misguided people who have supported Labour over the years ? Labour has not been much more than a personality cult under Helen Clark and she has represented herself to be something she is potentially not. A good example is my dear old Mum who had never contemplated Helen’s marriage being a sham and she could not comprehend the suggestion made by a friend over Xmas drinks. She didn’t vote for her this time but she has in the past and it would have made a considerable difference to her then had she known. The relevance is high to conservative people and that is why I suggest political fraud.

[DPF: They key word is “if”. Despite two decades or more of rumours there is not a shred of proof. Unless someone has such proof, it is hideously unfair and invasive to keep pushing the rumours]
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February 4, 2009 3:53pm
Inventory2

I gather that the Curtis brothers had gang affiliations. I trust that Corrections will ensure that they are sent to whichever prison is overpopulated by those associated with that gang’s most bitter rival. Then the Curtis brothers will have their own experience of the law of the jungle, just as they administered it to Nia Glassie.
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February 4, 2009 3:54pm
big bruv

How many more of Hussein Messiah Obama’s fellow socialist appointees are going to be outed as tax cheats?

This is another embarrassment for the Messiah.
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February 4, 2009 4:06pm
CraigM

BB – I know, it does seem to be deserved.

I don’t want to start a diatribe over the death penalty, it is too complicated a discussion and it’s too frikkin hot to think that hard.

I really do understand your feelings tho.
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February 4, 2009 4:06pm
CraigM

BB ; come on, it’s only three of them and they were all honest mistakes.

I commented at 10.51 on this. It is a joke.

“Yes we can”………….No you frikkin can’t

“Time for change”…………yeah, for the worse.
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February 4, 2009 4:12pm
MyNameIsJack

manakau council to stamp out street prostitution.

Street prostitution creates an unsafe work environment , especially for young people, said councillor Dick Quax, who will lead a working party to tackle street prostitution.

Now there’s a name to quax me up when I think of Dick trying to stop where a dick ends up.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10555178
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February 4, 2009 4:17pm
llew

Mr Farrar. If this is not just rumour doesn’t it have some relevance to the misguided people who have supported Labour over the years ?

But if it IS just rumour, it has a lot more relevance to DPF & his concern that stupid, defamatory claims get made on his website.
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February 4, 2009 4:18pm
casual watcher

Bit tetchy aren’t you mate
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February 4, 2009 4:24pm
llew

No. Are you a bit stupid?

Heh. That’s a bit rude of me, but if it quacks like a duck – I quizzed some journos who looked into this & I’m pretty certain that the story is rubbish.
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February 4, 2009 4:29pm
Buggerlugs

And then there’s the old joke from the 1970s:
How do you become a top track athlete?
Sit in the bath until your Dick Quax!

boom bloody boom.
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February 4, 2009 4:39pm
grumpyoldhori

We have some real dummies posting today.
Now attacking Helen Clark and her husband in a personal manner is not
very bloody bright.
Because people what you you are saying is that ANY politicians family is fair game , think there are not some mean bastards in the Labour party who would spread lies about John Key and his wife ?
So before throwing that rock you should stop and have a hard bloody think about it.
Unfair I hear because Brash’s marriage was bought up, he was a damn fool to try and suggest that ALL Nat types had great family values was he not ?

[DPF: He never ever did that. Why do you invent things?]
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February 4, 2009 4:44pm
slijmbal

As much I find Wishart a conspiracy theorist I’m with this him on this one (in his opinion why it matters not whether Clark lied rather than her preferences). Who cares whether Clark plays for the other team? it’s whether she made out she didn’t and if it turns out she does is the issue. It’s about needing our politicians to try and be honest – trust even.
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February 4, 2009 4:50pm
llew

Unfair I hear because Brash’s marriage was bought up, he was a damn fool to try and suggest that ALL Nat types had great family values was he not ?

Indeed, do you think it might be summed up like “he has represented himself to be something he is potentially not.” ?

Another difference though – that rumour was true.
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February 4, 2009 4:50pm
wikiriwhis business

“Ok … for all you politcal junkies out there …. which US President, as a Congressman, won the endorsements of both the Democratic and Republican Parties when he stood for re-election.”

Probably Abraham Lincoln. Because believe it or not he ran on the platform of slavery which gave him a shoo in.

Turned 180 degrees when he got in. slavery was still legal though at least half way into the civil war.

In Lincolns home state of Illinois it was illegal for blacks to enter.
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February 4, 2009 5:11pm
wikiriwhis business

“I see the low life scum who killed Nia Glassie have received life with a 17.5 year non parole period.

17.5 years is a bloody joke, we really need to pressure Key and the Nat’s to do something about our weak Judiciary, it is simply not good enough.”

There needs to be the death penalty reinstituted for eye winess testimonies to capital crimes.
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February 4, 2009 5:15pm
Ross Miller

Rumours are easy to start and then, like a fire that goes underground, hard to put out. Guess the question is at what point do the private lives of people in high places become fair game. In the UK their tabloids have no compunction about holding back whereas in NZ the generally held convention is that they are off-limits. But that convention is under strain witness the shannagans over Paula Bennett. Is Helen Clark above all that. Probably not and I think she makes it easy for some to attack her by her somewhat unconventional living arrangements.

Do I care? Not a hell of a lot. It’s her policies and the sleeze and corruption that she tolerated that I abhor.
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February 4, 2009 5:44pm
Buggerlugs

“Labour Associate Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Grant Robertson today called on the National Government to make a statement about the conflict and emerging humanitarian crisis in Sri Lanka.”

That’ll help Sri Lanka. Has he got the UN and National mixed up?
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February 4, 2009 6:20pm
PhilBest

Thanks for the responses to my 10.50 am post:

Blue Devil at 12.10 pm

Grumpy Old Hori at 12.59 pm

Good comments, both of you.
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February 4, 2009 7:49pm
wreck1080

Barfoot Thomsons are pathetic. This is them in the media…

Thompson said the number of homes sold in the $750,000 and over $1 million categories, despite being lower than the average across the year, was normal over the holiday period.
“Past history would suggest that sales in these categories will lift in the next quarter, so the potential for a modest uplift in the average selling price is there.”

Hmm, I think barfoot have not really noticed that we are suffering the worst financial crisis since THE GREAT DEPRESSION….. i guess it’s their job to talk it up but this is ridiculous.
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February 4, 2009 8:20pm
wikiriwhis business

Putin Sounds Like Ron Paul.

http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/shnvswr/vpost?id=3275981

Russian leader Putin speaks more sense than Democrats and Republicans about economic mess. Read below.

Esteemed colleagues, one is sorely tempted to make simple and popular decisions in times of crisis. However, we could face far greater complications if we merely treat the symptoms of the disease.

Naturally, all national governments and business leaders must take resolute actions. Nevertheless, it is important to avoid making decisions, even in such force majeure circumstances, that we will regret in the future.

This is why I would first like to mention specific measures which should be avoided and which will not be implemented by Russia.

We must not revert to isolationism and unrestrained economic egotism. The leaders of the world’s largest economies agreed during the November 2008 G20 summit not to create barriers hindering global trade and capital flows. Russia shares these principles.

Although additional protectionism will prove inevitable during the crisis, all of us must display a sense of proportion.

Excessive intervention in economic activity and blind faith in the state’s omnipotence is another possible mistake.

True, the state’s increased role in times of crisis is a natural reaction to market setbacks. Instead of streamlining market mechanisms, some are tempted to expand state economic intervention to the greatest possible extent.

The concentration of surplus assets in the hands of the state is a negative aspect of anti-crisis measures in virtually every nation.

In the 20th century, the Soviet Union made the state’s role absolute. In the long run, this made the Soviet economy totally uncompetitive. This lesson cost us dearly. I am sure nobody wants to see it repeated.

Nor should we turn a blind eye to the fact that the spirit of free enterprise, including the principle of personal responsibility of businesspeople, investors and shareholders for their decisions, is being eroded in the last few months. There is no reason to believe that we can achieve better results by shifting responsibility onto the state.

And one more point: anti-crisis measures should not escalate into financial populism and a refusal to implement responsible macroeconomic policies. The unjustified swelling of the budgetary deficit and the accumulation of public debts are just as destructive as adventurous stock-jobbing.
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February 4, 2009 10:43pm

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PO Box 12270, Thorndon, Wellington 6144

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