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January 31, 2009 9:00am by David Farrar

General Debate 31 January 2009

Hey what happened to January? I want it back!

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General Debate

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reid

Has anyone else been wondering about why the oil prices have been doing what they’re doing? I can’t work it out.

When they started rising, there was absolutely no strategic reason for them to do so – the supply and demand equation had not significantly changed and neither had the security of supply situation, both in terms of the security of the known reserves and in terms of the security of the transportation around the world.

I understand the futures speculators got into that market when they exited the properties market in late 05 early 06, and that explains the rise.

However it doesn’t explain the fall and the continued maintenance of the fall. Right now the oil price is about where I’d expect it to be if the market was operating without hidden hands manipulating it for their own reasons. I had thought that the price was being bought down throughout last year in order not to scare the horses during the US election so as to allow McCain to have a clear run. If you think that sort of thing doesn’t happen then I respectfully disagree. But that doesn’t explain why it’s still low now. Where have all the speculators gone?

You might think that the reduced demand arising from the global economic crisis is operating to do this. I’m not sure this is true. I’m not sure that it’s yet widespread enough to have that effect.
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January 31, 2009 9:26am
kiwipolemicist

What do you all think about this:

Two Scottish grandparents wanted to adopt their two grandchildren, whose mother is a drug addict. Social workers refused on grounds of age (46 & 59) and health (diabetes & angina). Despite the express wishes of the grandparents the children have been given to a male homosexual couple for adoption. One child is a boy, the other is a girl which a social services report says has difficulties with men. The grandparents were told that if they didn’t co-operate they’d never see the kids again.

Even if the kids were given to a heterosexual couple – more than one of which wanted the kids – this would be totally wrong.

IMHO these children have been sacrificed on the altar of political correctness.

http://kiwipolemicist.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/pure-evil-social-workers-give-children-to-gay-couple-for-adoption-despite-wishes-of-grandparents/
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January 31, 2009 9:29am
reid

kp, you have to be kidding.

I would assume that Bennett will be acting, forthwith.
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January 31, 2009 9:33am
bharmer

Sorry DPF, we are alloted a finite number of Januarys, and you have just used that one up. Based on your frenetic lifestyle, and barring unexpected termination of the contract, I estimate that you have about 32 of your allotted number of Januarys remaining. 🙂
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January 31, 2009 9:34am
Redbaiter

I see where the amazingly perceptive and aware Herald journalist John Armstrong has suddenly realised there’s a “rising tide of crime”, and not only calls on Judith Collins to fix it, but tells her how to go about the task.

Of course crime has been at intolerable levels in NZ for at least two or three decades. Suddenly, to the really switched on Armstrong, in 2009, there’s a “rising tide”.

..and of course, although society under various left wing style governments has for so so long been tolerant, docile and accepting of crime, with the Herald especially complacent, suddenly this “rising tide” has to be dealt with by Judith Collins whilst during the previous nine years, apparently nothing particular needed to be done.

When the Hell is this useless rag, NZ’s version of the fast failing ultra liberal New York Times, going to go broke and take its lame propagandists posing as journalists with it. Sooner not later I hope. There have been many factors that have contributed to NZ society’s gradual slide into social destruction, (crime wave included) however the apathy and political corruption of the mainstream media and the Herald in particular have been especially significant. They could have done so much. Rather, they have promoted and endorsed almost every crackpot liberal social theory out there.

How about the Herald doing something about crime Mr. Editor? Replacing lame politically corrupt advocates for socialism with real investigative journalists would be a start.
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January 31, 2009 9:35am
dad4justice

“kp, you have to be kidding.”

reid, he is far from joking. This sick agenda shows that the Courts and Child Protection Services have lost touch with reality. Poor children.
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January 31, 2009 9:36am
Patrick Starr

“Number of NZers collecting a benefit climbs
…..a lot of those collecting the DPB are teenagers. In December 2007 3,239 18-19 year-olds were receiving the DPB. That number increased by 11 percent to 3,610 in December 2008.”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10554478

no evidence of marriage or relationship breakdown – no DPB – simple.

“I would assume that Bennett will be acting, forthwith”

I’m waiting……
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January 31, 2009 9:37am
Redbaiter

“If you think that sort of thing doesn’t happen then I respectfully disagree. ”

It doesn’t. More of the same old mix. A totally detached from reality brew of left wing propaganda, conspiracy theories and lunacy.
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January 31, 2009 9:38am
Redbaiter

“What do you all think about this:”

The story is horrifying, but the UK, a country that once led the world in ideas on liberty, has been incrementally converted by the left into a politically corrupt and inwardly collapsing commie hole. The people there have voted themselves into tyranny. NZ could learn from this. Will they?? I hope so, but somehow I doubt it.
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January 31, 2009 9:46am
reid

“A totally detached from reality brew of left wing propaganda, conspiracy theories and lunacy.”

Meanwhile RB remains silent as to voicing alternative reasons for the phenomena. RB, I’m getting a little tired of being labelled a lefty by yourself. Haven’t you ever read anything I’ve said? What’s the matter, don’t you understand English?
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January 31, 2009 9:48am
kiwipolemicist

reid: I’m not kidding. This is in Scotland, so Bennett won’t be acting: that’s probably a good thing in view of the fact that she has previously claimed ownership of all NZ children. i.e. she’s probably just as bad as the mob in Scotland.

http://kiwipolemicist.wordpress.com/2008/11/19/paula-bennett-claims-ownership-of-all-new-zealand-children/
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January 31, 2009 9:51am
Viking2

seems Granny Herald just prints others stories.
1. Immigration, well we all knew that stuff before the election. Nothing new in that story
2. Scottish Grandparents. Old news from another blog. Not even in NZ so what Bennet has to do with it all God only knows.
3. NZ er’s collecting benefit climbs. Written first by Lindsay on her blog, copied to the Herald. Apart from the Herald probably not paying Lindsay for the article, (where is your copyright now) they failed dismally to point out that increasing numbers of Kiwi’s are going onto benefits in place of jobs. A trend that has been going on since this time last year.
All that they really wanted to do was make a screaming headline that attacked beneficiaries, somewhat sad really. But what can we expect from a company that rorted the taxpayer, has an enormous debt burden at head office and frankly only publishes stuff it can acquire by wire.
Maybe soon we will be able to buy it back and once again have a Kiwi owned real newspaper, written for Kiwi’s by Kiwi’s talking about Kiwi’s good and bad.
Roll on the day.I will consider subscribing again.
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January 31, 2009 9:54am
kiwipolemicist

Viking2: a couple of years ago I approached the Herald with a story. I can’t give details, but the story was a gift, any paper with half a brain would have run it because it was all about the state making life difficult for disabled people. They sent out a reporter and a photographer (pictures of disabled people always help a paper), and then…nothing happened.

Aunty Helen didn’t stub her toe that week so there were no major stories to fill up the paper with.
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January 31, 2009 10:04am
reid

kp, thanks for that link. I’m not sure I agree with your conclusion drawn from the “She and I share a belief that all children are our children” remark though.

As we know, Maori and PI people have a much more extended family view of relationships than most individualistic westerners. Perhaps that’s all she was meaning.

I would be surprised if Turia herself would support adoption to a gay couple, I’m not sure about Bennett as I haven’t seen enough of her, yet.

I would expect this situation would grate terribly against the Nat’s conservative support base and therefore, I’m hoping that even if Bennett herself thinks it’s OK, that she will be ordered to intervene. As Patrick said above: we’re waiting.
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January 31, 2009 10:06am
Redbaiter

“Meanwhile RB remains silent as to voicing alternative reasons for the phenomena.”

Reid, to anyone with the slightest grasp of economic and political reality, no explanation is necessary. If you look back through my posts on the issue of oil price flautuations, you’ll find they’re all reasonably accurate, because in fact its pretty easy to be accurate. Oil prices go up and down according to supply and demand and perceptions relating to supply and demand. Production costs against what the market will pay for the product. Nothing difficult about that. The idea that the small coterie of false Republicans who wanted McCain elected were manipulating the vast and seething commercial cauldron of world oil is so silly as to be infantile, and I don’t want to get into some long and involved Greg Palance/ George Soros/ Code Pink/ Huffington Post/ Media Matters/ Daily Kos/ The Smirking Chimp/ inspired debate with you on the real capitalist conspiracy behind it all. Soooo boring.
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January 31, 2009 10:16am
Viking2

Here is an article that you all might like to get your minds around. From Australia and written by their erstwhile PM about the past and the future. If he gets his way Aussie is stuffed and we will not have enough room to accommodate all their emmigrants. The fish hook I see immediately for Rudd is that he has failed to look at the State of NSW and its Socialist Communist Union Govt. and the complete disaster that NSW is rapidly becoming. They are near bankrupt,(not unusual I know), all their Govt. services are near collapse and the unions are rapidly increasing their control and takeover of the State Govt. at which time they will no doubt cancel elections. Far Fetched, maybe not.

Rudd sees death of neo-liberalism
Paul Kelly, Editor, The Australian

KEVIN Rudd has put his ideological spin on the global crisis – arguing the great neo-liberal experiment of the past 30 years represented by Thatcher, Reagan, Greenspan and John Howard has failed.

Rudd has defined himself, his Government and his re-election strategy by declaring that only social democrats and the Labor Party can recruit state power to save capitalism.

He has thrown the Liberal Party on to the trash heap of history, saying it is “the political home of neo-liberalism in Australia” and that the former Howard government aimed to reduce state power “as much as possible”.

Declaring that a failed 30-year epoch in world history has come to a conclusion, Rudd says the crisis means “one orthodoxy is overthrown and another takes its place”.

The new epoch is about using state power “to save capitalism from itself”. Rudd’s aim is to hold global neo-liberal policies responsible for the catastrophe and the Howard government as local upholder of these fatal ideas. His game plan is to position Labor as the long-run political and ideological winner from the crisis.

In his latest essay for The Monthly, to be published next week, Rudd turns the global crisis into a decisive ideological event. The resort to government intervention demanded by the crisis fits perfectly with Rudd’s philosophy. He presents Malcolm Turnbull with an ideological challenge by insisting the Liberals stand on the wrong side of history.

The significance of Rudd’s essay is that Labor will become the party of ideological attack and neo-liberalism and its backers will become the targets. This is a device to keep Labor united during the coming recession and the Liberal Party on the defensive.

He sees the crisis not just in policy terms, but as a turning point in the history of ideas. He wants to bury the Howard legacy and the Liberal Party in the failures of American laissez-faire.

Rudd declares the current crisis “is the culmination of a 30-year domination of economic policy by a free-market ideology that has been variously called neo-liberalism, economic liberalism, economic fundamentalism, Thatcherism or the Washington consensus”.

He says this philosophy was anti-tax, anti-regulation, anti-government. It believed in unregulated financial markets, self-correcting markets, complete labour market deregulation and opposed investment in public goods.

Rudd dates the neo-liberal ascendancy from 1978-2008 and speculates with breathtaking hubris that the post-2008 epoch might be called “social capitalism” or “social democratic capitalism”. He says it will be defined by an activist state and open markets.

In Rudd’s view, social democrats must use a resurrected state power to regulate markets, strike a better balance between public and private interests, embrace Keynesian economics, correct for market failure from the financial system to climate change and invest more in education, health, unemployment insurance and retirement incomes – while supporting open markets and withstanding attacks from the extreme Left and nationalist Right.

He shuns any embrace of old-fashioned socialism. For Rudd, Labor’s task is to hold the middle ground – between state socialism and free-market fundamentalism. He argues the failure of neo-liberalism has made the state the primary actor; it must save the financial system, stimulate the economy and impose a new global regulatory regime.

Rudd has put Turnbull on notice. His plan is to convert the global crisis into a historic failure of Liberal Party philosophy and its pro-market ideas.

Interesting stuff don’t you think?
Can anyone see a similarity to the National Socialist Party the currently governs NZ?
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January 31, 2009 10:17am
kiwipolemicist

reid: you’re welcome. Even *if* she is talking about collective responsibility in the Maori/PI sense (rather than ownership) she is right out of order. Each parent is responsible for their own children and their own children alone, so Bennett & Turia should keep their sticky beaks out. Furthermore, assuming responsibility or ownership is assuming authority to intervene.

If a parent freely chooses to delegate responsibility or ownership and someone freely chooses to accept that is fine.
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January 31, 2009 10:29am
reid

Oil prices go up and down according to supply and demand and perceptions relating to supply and demand.

That’s the whole point, RB. Neither the supply-demand equation nor the security of supply equation explain the oil price fluctuations. The speculator intervention explains the rise. Nothing that I have seen explains the drop. You really don’t understand English, do you?

The idea that the small coterie of false Republicans who wanted McCain elected were manipulating the vast and seething commercial cauldron of world oil is so silly as to be infantile

The idea that a small coterie of false Republicans were the only ones involved is your interpretation of what I said, RB. It really says more about your lack of understanding of the powers that stand behind the markets, than anything else. And as to those references you mentioned, I am aware of their perspectives but I haven’t read them for years. Why would you think that was where I was getting my ideas from?
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January 31, 2009 10:30am
PhilBest

Reid; on the price of oil, your own posting at the top there has all the ingredients to draw the right conclusion; there was no logical reason for the initial price spike being so extreme; the gulf of Mexico oil production had been down, but “animal spirits” are probably responsible for the rest, there are a lot of stupid myths flying around about oil running out, plus the greed/bubble effect when a market goes up (just like with houses in NZ).

But the drop is also just as it should be; when you get a bubble, and it bursts, of course all the previous unrealistic increase gets knocked off. As you say, there has been a downturn which has influenced investors decisions as well as reducing consumption of oil; the thing you have left out, is the long term perception that the USA is not going to leave its still substantial untapped resources in the ground forever as might have been presumed at one time. Obama or other Democratic Presidents may well do this, but it will then become a main reason for their not becoming President a second time. The “Drill here, drill now” movement got a lot of popular resonance.
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January 31, 2009 10:34am
PhilBest

Here’s a typical confrontation between some of those lovely, peaceable gay rights activists and those dreadful fundamentalist homophobe bigots…….(does anyone detect my note of sarcasm…..?)

http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=PrRxFoBSPng
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January 31, 2009 10:36am
Redbaiter

Thanks for the article Viking2. A good read. As usual, the left try to capitalise on any such event and use it as a means to entrench their grip on power. Agree with you on NSW being a collapsing commie hole and Victoria is just as bad. Can’t even generate enough power. Under the stewardship of the Klark clone Anna Bligh, Queensland risks collapsing into the same social and economic vacuum. Constantly lied to by a politically corrupt media, and with the opposition a weak and eviscerated intellectually bankrupt farce, the people have little chance of escaping the sad fate that socialism will bring them.
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January 31, 2009 10:40am
Redbaiter

Phil Best, you’re a damn champion.
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January 31, 2009 10:44am
PhilBest

Viking2 (202) 1 0 Says:

January 31st, 2009 at 10:17 am
“Here is an article that you all might like to get your minds around. From Australia and written by their erstwhile PM about the past and the future. If he gets his way Aussie is stuffed and we will not have enough room to accommodate all their emmigrants. The fish hook I see immediately for Rudd is that he has failed to look at the State of NSW and its Socialist Communist Union Govt. and the complete disaster that NSW is rapidly becoming. They are near bankrupt,(not unusual I know), all their Govt. services are near collapse and the unions are rapidly increasing their control….”

You are onto it, Viking2. But Rudd’s failure to learn from reality, goes well beyond his inability to learn from NSW. Unfortunately, he is not the only populist Western leader in this category.

What the world desperately needs, is some shining example of a country that has largely escaped the current mess, through truly good government; and/or gets itself quickly into good shape now by defying the frightfully wrong-headed trend sweeping the world. Tax cuts, small government, affordable housing, truly free markets. Does anyone know of a candidate? The Czech Republic?

Viking2, your assumption about emigration from Aussie to here, will be correct if the National-led government not only handles the crisis better than the Rudd government, but overcomes the handicap of 9 years of the wrong thing having left NZ going into recession already anyway, irrespective of events on Wall Street. Rudd has a handsome head start, in terms of his fiscal leeway. It was entirely fair that NZ ditched the Heleban. It wasn’t so fair that the Aussies ditched Howard, when you look at the superb shape their economy was in.
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January 31, 2009 10:46am
PhilBest

Reid, if some coterie of the rich and powerful were controlling oil prices to get McCain elected, it would have made more sense for them to keep the prices UP. As long as Obama was the “no more drilling in the USA” Candidate, he was losing votes while the prices remained high. And why couldn’t that coterie of the rich and powerful also hold off the financial crash, which was one main reason for disillusion with the Republicans?
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January 31, 2009 10:51am
reid

Viking2 that’s a very interesting extract in your 10:17, thank you.

It’s very like the Commanding Heights ebb and flow, isn’t it.

For those who haven’t read the book or seen this excellent PBS doco, google Daniel Yergin.

The premise is that there is an ebb and flow in whomever controls the Commanding Heights of the economy. The Commanding Heights were in the Communist 20’s the heavy industries like Mining, Gas, Electricity etc. The Communists controlled those and thereby controlled society. This lasted globally up till the days of Reagan, Thatcher and Douglas when the control was devolved to the markets. Now, we’re seeing the beginnings of a global reversal.

I read the other day that the liabilities in CDOs and derivatives of the three largest US banks outstripped their assets by ratios of between 5-7 times. These banks are BoA, Citigroup and JPM. Now the US govt can either let them fail or it can nationalise them. There is no third alternative. What, do you think, they will do?

The Commanding Heights these days have transmogrified from the heavy industries into things like banking, communications and the media. We are at the dawning of the information age and this has changed the rules slightly but the old principles still apply. It looks like we are seeing today the beginnings of another ebb and flow in the ownership and control of these elements.
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January 31, 2009 10:53am
PhilBest

And in a truly bizarre twist, Viking2, at Davos where world leaders are now discussing the crisis, apparently Vladimir Putin has given a speech warning against protectionism and excessive state intervention in the economy…..and has copped criticism for that…….
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January 31, 2009 10:54am
PhilBest

I am very interested to note that the government of Zimbabwe has officially declared all currencies to be acceptable as legal tender in Zimbabwe. I don’t know that THEY know what they are doing, but with this, they might have just fluked the magic bullet that will turn their economy around. The only better thing they could have done, is to just go for gold.
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January 31, 2009 11:00am
reid

Reid, if some coterie of the rich and powerful were controlling oil prices to get McCain elected, it would have made more sense for them to keep the prices UP. As long as Obama was the “no more drilling in the USA” Candidate, he was losing votes while the prices remained high. And why couldn’t that coterie of the rich and powerful also hold off the financial crash, which was one main reason for disillusion with the Republicans?

Phil, a coterie is the wrong word for it. The players responsible for the manipulation of the markets and the current crash are politically agnostic and inter-generational. They’re the same players who caused the 29 depression using exactly the same method: firstly expand the money supply then contract it.

If you think about this in terms of a mere coterie, then you’re looking at a tree and not the woods.
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January 31, 2009 11:01am
Redbaiter

Reid, if anyone is foolish enough to buy a gold painted brick, the only way of recovering from the situation is to sell that brick to someone who is today as stupid as the original buyer was initially. No matter how many buyers and sellers, in the end, someone is inevitably left with no money and a worthless brick. You can join in the game, or you can stay out of it. If you decide to play, all you can ever do is try the best you can to ensure that when the game is up, you’re not the one holding the brick..
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January 31, 2009 11:03am
greenfly

DFP said: “Hey what happened to January? I want it back!”
I think I know why you feel robbed Mr Farrar – nothing happened to make it memorable. The NAct government slipped the running of the country into ‘neutral’ and we are all feeling agrieved by the wasted month. February looks as if it will be equally wasted. Fingers crossed for March!
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January 31, 2009 11:07am
greenfly

Redbaiter – are you so low as to be selling gold painted bricks? Perhaps you need to have a wee peek into your soul. Just because there are fools that will buy, doesn’t make it right 🙂
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January 31, 2009 11:09am
Redbaiter

Greenfly, gold bricks are a legitimate trading item. They’re sold and bought by the million every day all over the world. Would you like some? I’ll sell you two especially valuable examples at half the price they’re sold to the average fool.
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January 31, 2009 11:18am
greenfly

Sounds like a deal allrightred. You’re a brick!
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January 31, 2009 11:41am
side show bob

I think the Aussie’s fascination for Mr Rudd is beginning to wane. Had friends over from WA and over there he is affectionately known as 747 Kevin, given his great love for getting into them. Sound’s very much like our former leader.
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January 31, 2009 11:44am
Lou

Is this for real? “Obama raises a hand, lifts a nation.” Supposedly it’s a t-shirt slogan, and one that’s now being sold by (wait for the drum rollllllll) CNN! Surprised?
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January 31, 2009 11:49am
Redbaiter

Greenblowfly- Yeah well, the two I have in mind are already well traded all over the globe. One is “socialism” and the other “environmentalism”.
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January 31, 2009 11:51am
toad

DPF said: Hey what happened to January? I want it back!

I’m not sure if Murray McCully will. Let’s just hope he’s not planning to have a full three years of Januarys.
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January 31, 2009 12:56pm
Eisenhower

So Obama criticizes Wall Street bonuses and money being spent on renovating offices, in reference to ex-Merrill Lynch ceo John Thains’s $1.2m office remodel, but is happy to have $160m spent on his own inauguration (Bush in ’05 was a paltry $40m). And guess who the Obama’s have appointed to redecorate the White House? Yep, same guy.
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January 31, 2009 1:22pm
baxter

While supply and demand is keeping the barrel cost of oil low the cost of production is well in excess of the current price for many suppliers. Russia for instance has a production cost of US $70 abarrel (Bloomberg last night)
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January 31, 2009 1:33pm
Jack5

Slightly different tack on this general debate topic …

Christchurch Press today prints an interesting slab on Scientology, including the cult in New Zealand.

Does anyone have a handle on the alleged relationship or ex-relationship between Scientology and the Christchurch group ZAP (Zenith Applied Philosophy). ZAP is of interest because several present or former members are strong in the ACT Party branch in Christchurch. It’s been said a number of times that ZAP is an offshoot or heresy from Scientology, or was otherwise inspired by it.

If so, I wonder if they’ve tried to re-program Rodney Hide? One of Hide’s friends, David Henderson, is or was a ZAP man.

In the unlikely event that Rodney Hide was influenced by a Scientology spin-off, he would have been told after dropping his partner in Dancing with the Stars something along the lines: “that was caused by your dad shouting at you to put something down when you were an infant.”
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January 31, 2009 2:06pm
kiwipolemicist

Jack5: see http://www.cults.co.nz/z.php

That has a link to Wikipedia, which claims that Trevor Loudon of New Zeal is a ZAPper.

I wouldn’t read too much into ACT members being ZAPpers: ZAP is a right wing group and I don’t think that they’re trying to conquer the country or anything like that. However, it’s a dangerous cult and should be avoided as you would avoid Herr Helen, Sue Bradford, bubonic plague, and rabid bitches.
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January 31, 2009 3:45pm
Owen McShane

The Herald major story “Home Truths” which sets out to undermine the Demographia survey and to suggest that planning restraints are not the cause of our severely unaffordable housing is full of half-truths and downright falsehoods, and unsupported claims..
The best example of the quality of the claims by the CEO of the NZ planning institute is the illustration of his own two houses, one in Houston and one in Auckland. He points out that the Houston house is cheaper than the Auckland one, but that the rates in Houston are US$8,076 (NZ$15,850) while the rates in Auckland are $1300.
Two things. The conversion should be on PPP not market exchange rate but more importantly the rates in Houston are not rates as we know them but land taxes which also pay for Education and Police. He knows this because he made this same claim at a conference where I was speaking and I picked him up on it. But he persists. HE then quotes Coleman of Motu saying that the Demographia index does not take into account that NZ interest rates were much higher than other markets at that time. That’s right. It doesn’t but then that means that NZ houses were even less affordable. So what is he trying to say?

Elsewhere Keith Hall argues that the index is skewed by extremely high priced houses but that is why we use the median not the mean. The median house price is the house in the middle – ie with an equal number of prices below it as above it. This effectively gets rid of the long tail problem. Remarkably he claims that the index does not take into account the increased size of houses over time. Well, for one thing it is the price of land which has inflated not the house and the increase in size is less than the increase in GDP per capital over the timeframe.

A lot depends on some group in NSW criticisms which presumably want to blame the banks or refuse to admit that compliance costs have anything to do with this bubble or indeed restraints on the supply of land. They claim there is no empirical data which distinguishes over regulated markets from lightly regulated markets.
Well, one useful test is whether the local government describes itself as having adopted Smart Growth or not. Every severely unaffordable market has adopted Smart Growth or GRowth management (with MULs etc) while none of the affordable markets had.
Tauranga etc adopted Smart Growth a few years ago and has now displaced Auckland as our most unaffordable market.
The Demographia summary quotes a host of international reports which supports this conclusion.
The story then gets confused about single income and double income earners.
But the index has always been based on median HOUSEHOLD income not per capital income..
Dear me. HOw does this kind of stuff get taken so seriously?
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January 31, 2009 3:53pm
Redbaiter

“The Herald major story “Home Truths”…… is full of half-truths and downright falsehoods, and unsupported claims..”

What motivates a newspaper to tell lies like this??
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January 31, 2009 4:20pm
PhilBest

# Lou (17) Vote: Add rating1 Subtract rating 0 Says:
January 31st, 2009 at 11:49 am

“Is this for real? “Obama raises a hand, lifts a nation.” Supposedly it’s a t-shirt slogan, and one that’s now being sold by (wait for the drum rollllllll) CNN! Surprised?”

Lou, I recently quoted one pre-election speech by Obama in which he spoke about:

“….future generations will be able to point to this time, as the time when the oceans ceased their rise and the planet began to heal…..”

and I got hit with a whole lot of negative karma. The grip that guy has over people’s minds, even here in NZ and even here on “centrist” Kiwiblog, is just frightening.
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January 31, 2009 4:52pm
PhilBest

Owen McShane (551) Vote: Add rating1 Subtract rating 0 Says:
January 31st, 2009 at 3:53 pm

“The Herald major story “Home Truths” which sets out to undermine the Demographia survey and to suggest that planning restraints are not the cause of our severely unaffordable housing is full of half-truths and downright falsehoods, and unsupported claims….”

And the rest of that post………great stuff, Owen. Now, assuming the “Herald” is not going to print any of the facts, can some public-spirited wealthy person please pay for a letterbox drop exposing them? These people really need to get some heat put on them.

The destructive pricks really are so far gone on their sacred cow political ideology about regulating lives, restricting urban growth, and keeping houses unaffordable, that they don’t even care about the chances of their own kids, if they have any, of ever having an affordable home.
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January 31, 2009 4:58pm
PhilBest

Reid: (sorry for late response):

“…..The players responsible for the manipulation of the markets and the current crash are politically agnostic and inter-generational. They’re the same players who caused the 29 depression using exactly the same method: firstly expand the money supply then contract it.

If you think about this in terms of a mere coterie, then you’re looking at a tree and not the woods….”

Reid, who are these people, who set up the circumstances in 1929, and again today, for a prolonged period of the worst ever populist leftwing anti-business statist governments in modern western history? It doesn’t make sense to me, because that will be the most likely result under conditions of democracy and prevailing voter ignorance. It is not as if that coterie or whatever you might want to call it, is going to gain much that could be described as desirable to them.

I joked the other day that Geenspan and Bernancke and Paulson might be true to the Ayn Rand ideals they espoused when they were younger, and have merely used their positions to hasten the demise of the paper money system that they fully understand the vulnerability of, and despise. But there is not a lot to be gained in the aftermath of a severe crash, if anti-business populists along the lines of FDR or Barack Obama are running the show, and get to consolidate their power all the more deeply in consequence. (Notwithstanding the “happy ending” of Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged” – it just doesn’t work that way in real life).

I certainly don’t believe that these people pulling the strings as you allege, are intentionally setting up a trend towards communism, for all the presence of other CULTURALLY focused groups with this aim in mind. Any that are, are playing with fire; they are more likely to come to a messy end at the hands of the socialists they misguidedly support, than a glorious one.
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January 31, 2009 5:10pm
PhilBest

What the world desperately needs, is some shining example of a country that has largely escaped the current mess, through truly good government; and/or gets itself quickly into good shape now by defying the frightfully wrong-headed trend sweeping the world. Tax cuts, small government, affordable housing, truly free markets. Does anyone know of a candidate? The Czech Republic?

Economic Growth Rates would be a good guide but are unfortunately old data by the time they are known:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(real)_growth_rate

It will be interesting to keep track of that in years to come.

THIS report is interesting:

“Poland, Czechs to escape recession -EU forecast”

Mon, Jan 19 2009, 11:32 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com

By Marcin Grajewski

BRUSSELS, Jan 19 (Reuters) – “Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania will escape recession among the European Union’s new member states from central and eastern Europe, the European Commission said on Monday…..”

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=674de849-5653-465d-9d02-5f52d81fa00e
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January 31, 2009 5:19pm
PhilBest

THIS is also interesting:

http://praguemonitor.com/2008/11/07/financial-crisis-czech-republic-and-euro

“Financial crisis, the Czech Republic and the euro”
By Martin Jahn /
Hospodářské noviny /
30 October 2008

“…….Today, it is clear that what started as a US credit crisis will develop into a world-wide recession that will last at least one or two years. An economic depression was averted only thanks to a relatively speedy and well-coordinated response of central banks and governments. The (Czech) “Crown” ? Nothing special…For a long time it seemed as though the financial crisis had nothing to do with us. Czech banks had not bought big volumes of toxic shares and conservatively focused mainly on the development of the local market. An economy driven by the export industry maintained a healthy, rapid growth rate.

But the Czech Republic cannot avoid the impact of the crisis. Local exporters are already noticing a significant decrease in demand, particularly from western Europe. The majority of banks and important companies in the manufacturing industry, moreover, have foreign owners, and they are feeling the impact of the financial crisis more strongly than firms on the local market.

Fortunately, the crisis hit the Czech Republic in the upward arc of its economic cycle. This means that we should not see any significant decrease in production or any massive layoffs, but rather a decrease in economic growth, which, in my opinion, will not exceed 3% next year.

It would be a mistake to think that the impact of the crisis will be less drastic simply because our country has not introduced the euro yet. There are a number of countries that also still have their own currency but have been hit hard all the same. Hungary, Ukraine and Iceland are some of the examples. By contrast Austria and the Netherlands remain nearly unscathed. Germany also appears to be quite resilient…….”

That last sentence or two is interesting:

“…..Austria and the Netherlands remain nearly unscathed. Germany also appears to be quite resilient…….”; along with the position of the Czech Republic itself as covered in the article. We should be taking a good hard look at the reasons WHY some countries have not got themselves into such a mess, shouldn’t we?
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January 31, 2009 5:32pm
getstaffed

Amen to the Czech Republic. That’s my pick of countries in which to establish a European-based business.
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January 31, 2009 6:09pm
greenfly

Jeeze it’s hot in Adelaide! 40 plus and looking at a week of record temperatures, but Rodney’s probably right, nothing to see here!
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January 31, 2009 6:15pm
Viking2

Owen Mcshane; While I am not a fan of Smart Growth per say in the case of Tauranga where I have lived for 40 years it has been a beneficial process. Unlike a lot of places we actually don’t have a lot of land available so it really makes sense to take a look and decide where we want houses, factories and roads. Tauranga has been the fastest growing area in Nz for most of that 40 years and as such emphasizes some of the issues to be planned for. Water and sewerage are two examples along with our roading.
We have a limited water supply and for the first 20 years I was here we constantly ran out of water during any dry spells. That’s been fixed thankfully.
Developers are no respecters of roading needs and because Tauranga is surrounded by the Western Bay District Council we have a huge proliferation of lifestyle blocks, particularly on the Tga. Katikati road. Huge increase in traffic but no provision for the roading. That road is one of the highest densities in NZ.
Our council protected their interests by building a toll road into the city but the Labour Govt. prevented them from tolling the part in from Kati so the city ratepayers pick up the tab and have to deal with the traffic. The city has no say in the development in the county so are stuck with all the costs that affect the city because of the growth.

Hopefully one day very soon the two will be amalgamated as they should have been years ago and we won’t finish up like Auckland and Wellington with a bunch of rag tag councils all pushing their own barrow.
Up until about 4 years ago developers paid nothing to develop their subdivisions and imposed extra costs of services on the existing rate payer who had to pick up the tab. You may be able to justify why someone in Auckland can sell their house at the then prices, move to Tauranga and purchase a new house in a new subdivision and not contribute to the infrastructure cost but leave it to the ratepayer but we considered that was not a viable option for Tauranga and since then most other councils have followed our lead.
Thankfully we did as now that development has for all intents and purposes stopped we will struggle to pay our way and had we continued as of old we would be like Sydney, bankrupt.

Looking at the afford ability of houses. Tauranga is an oddity in this regard and I have yet to see any decent research that actually identifies why we get so much negative opinion.
We have two distinct housing districts, i.e. Tauranga which is north of the harbour and of course the Mount. Looking first at Tauranga prior to say 1970 there was a small number of houses, perhaps about 35% of the current number. There were very few old houses of the type you will find in all other major urban area’s for the population was tiny, so all the rest of those houses have been built since 1970 say 65% of them. More than a few in the last 10 years.
Going to the mount we have an even bigger change. At a guess I would say that 70-75% of housing in the mount has been built or replaced since 1970 and probably some 50% since 1993.
Population in 1974 was about 35000 and now 110000 without those that have beach places.(half the Waikato cow farmers)
Now what does that mean, well it means that because most of the houses are new they sell at new or near new or replacement price. Kept there by the simple equation of supply and demand. There are no Old area’s to lower the median as there are in other cities.
If you are going to compare afford ability do so on a like for like basis. Perhaps make the comparison between here and Orewa Whangaporoa.
One of the benefits of living here of course is that most of us can get to work and home again in a matter of minutes unlike other major cities.
We do suffer from politics and have done for all the time I have lived here. While most other towns manage to have transit provide for bypasses etc this town with the biggest export port in NZ and the second biggest import port manage on crumbs.
We have built our own motorways and if it hadn’t of been for petty outsiders moving here would have tolled those using them. We built our own harbour bridge, now no one anywhere else in NZ has done anything like that. Perhaps you should have.
We have done this because politics has played its part in isolating this area from funding. It way back was a safe National seat so we never rated with the Nats, not marginal enough. Then when Winston decided to throw his toys out of the cot we suffered because of his behavior. Only when his support made a difference to Govt. did we get any consideration. ( Now Don’t bother me with that particular discussion).
Now we are back with the Nats. but I suggest the electorate remains marginal, Simon is a light weight and the next election will most likely see our current Mayor stand for labour. If he does he will get the seat for he has a big following and the Nats. don’t.
Smart Growth is not what determines house prices anywhere. Supply and demand do and so what creates the demand is what creates the house price. The most obvious reason is work. People move to work. That’s why Las Vegas has thousands of empty homes now. No work. but the places like Houston etc don’t have the same empty houses. Cause there is work.
We are seeing the end of many types of work,some temporarily and some permanent, and it will cause the displacement of people.
A really good book to read to gain an insight to this is “The Grapes Of Wrath” by John Steinbeck. About the movement of people in America during the industrial revolution. And thats what the world is about currently. There are masses of people moving around for work and better lifestyles, more than ever in the worlds history.
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January 31, 2009 9:12pm
reid

Reid, who are these people, who set up the circumstances in 1929, and again today,

Phil, google “money masters”
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February 1, 2009 7:00am
Banana Llama

Just learn about who advocated for the removal of the gold standard.
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February 1, 2009 8:42am
reid

Not just gold but also silver, Banana. There are good reasons to prefer silver, Ron Paul advocates for the silver standard. Wonder why, I ask disingenuously…

P.S. if you watch that money masters video, watch the whole 3 hours of it, not just the first 5 mins.

Some people don’t like to look into things that change their perception of how the world works. It challenges their paradigms. To me this is a foolish position to take.

After watching that, realise that this is only the surface, you might want to read ‘The creature from Jekyll Island’ which explains the creation of the Fed – Jekyll Island is a resort in Georgia.

After exploring this field, at the end of the day, you might decide that all of this is bollocks and that’s fine. At least though, you’ll be better equipped than you were before. Personally, I just file this stuff away and use it along with a lot of other information in my geopolitical analyses. And remember, this stuff is only about economics, and remember, that’s a mere subset of what goes on in the world.

My position is that some or all of it may be true or it may not be true. But I take the rather obvious position that if you don’t understand what it is, then you’re in no position to assess whether it might be a factor or not, in any particular situation that you’re looking into. Those people who instantly dismiss this stuff without even knowing much about it, are fools, IMO. Some of these fools even try to engage in debate with people like me, as to whether it’s true or not. With respect to those fools, I take the simple position that if you don’t understand the theory of relativity then you’re in no position to assess it, are you? Same with this stuff.
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February 1, 2009 9:03am

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