The average of the polls

The final average of the public polls from Curiablog is:

1. National 59 (46.8%)
2. Labour 44 (34.6%)
3. Green 10 (8.1%)
4. ACT 3 (2.6%)
5. Maori 4 (2.4%)
6. United Future 1 (0.5%)
7. Progressive 1 (0.2%)

National/ACT/United Future = 63/122 seats
Labour/Prog/Greens = 55/122 seats

If you take a weighted average of just the last five polls released this week, then National and Labour lose a seat each to ACT and Greens respectively, so not much change to the overall balance.

So if the average of the public polls is correct (and I am not saying it will be), then who will be in and out of Parliament?

The only seats projected to change hands on the basis of boundary changes or public polls are Taupo, Rotorua, and Palmerston North. Personally I think there will be more movement than that, so this is not a prediction – it is just reflecting the seats that had had polls showing a change.

National

1. John Key – Helensville
2. Bill English – Clutha Southland
3. Gerry Brownlee – Ilam
4. Simon Power – Rangitikei]
5. Nick Smith – Nelson
6. Tony Ryall – Bay of Plenty
7. Judith Collins – Papakura
8. Maurice Williamson – Pakuranga
9. David Carter – List #1
10. Anne Tolley – East Coast
11. Murray McCully – East Coast Bays
12. Lockwood Smith – Rodney
13. Wayne Mapp – North Shore
14. Chris Finlayson – List #2
15. Tim Groser – List #3
16. Steven Joyce – List #4
17. Georgina te Heuheu – List #5
18. Nathan Guy – List #6
19. Lindsay Tisch – Waikato
20. Pansy Wong – Botany
21. John Carter – Northland
22. Phil Heatley – Whangarei
23. Paul Hutchison – Hunua
24. Shane Ardern – Taranaki-King Country
25. Richard Worth – List #7
26. Tau Henare – List #8
27. Sandra Goudie – Coromandel
28. Eric Roy – Invercargill
29. Jonathan Coleman – Northcote
30. Kate Wilkinson – List #9
31. Chris Tremain – Napier
32. Chester Borrows – Whanganui
33. Craig Foss – Tukituki
34. Allan Peachey – Tamaki
35. Sam Lotu-liga – List #10
36. Hekia Parata – List #11
37. Melissa Lee – List #12
38. Kanwal JS Bakshi – List #13
39. Jo Goodhew – Rangitata
40. Jacqui Dean – Waitaki
41. Paula Bennett – List #14
42. Chris Auchinvole – List #15
43. Nicky Wagner – List #16
44. David Bennett – Hamilton East
45. Jackie Blue – List #17
46. Katrina Shanks – List #18
47. Colin King – Kaikoura
48. Paul Quinn – List #19
49. Michael Woodhouse – List #20
50. John Hayes – Wairarapa
51. Simon Bridges – Tauranga
52. Amy Adams – Selwyn
53. Louise Upston – Taupo
54. Todd McClay – Rotorua
55. Tim Macindoe – List #21
56. Aaron Gilmore – List #22
57. Nikki Kaye – List #23
58. Cam Calder – List #24
59. Malcolm Plimmer – Palmerston North

Labour

1. Helen Clark – Mt Albert
2. Michael Cullen – List #1
3. Phil Goff – Mt Roskill
4. Annette King – Rongotai
5. Parekura Horomia – Ikaroa-Rawhiti
6. Pete Hodgson – Dunedin North
7. Chris Carter – Te Atatu
8. David Cunliffe – New Lynn
9. Maryan Street – List #2
10. Nanaia Mahuta – Hauraki-Waikato
11. Winnie Laban – Mana
12. Rajen Prasad – List #3
13. Ruth Dyson – Port Hills
14. Trevor Mallard – Hutt South
15. Lianne Dalziel – Christchurch East
16. Shane Jones – List #4
17. David Parker – List #5
18. Clayton Cosgrove – Waimakariri
19. Darren Hughes – Otaki
20. Jacinda Ardern – List #6
21. Raymond Huo – List #7
22. Sue Moroney – List #8
23. Mita Ririnui – List #9
24. William Sio – Mangere
25. Moana Mackey – List #10
26. Phil Twyford – List #11
27. Charles Chauvel – List #12
28. Carol Beaumont – Maungakiekie
29. Kelvin Davis – List #13
30. Steve Chadwick – List #14
31. Ashraf Choudhary – List #15
32. Lynne Pillay – Waitakere
33. Darien Fenton – List #16
34. Damien O’Connor – West Coast-Tasman
35. Judith Tizard – AUckland Central
36. Mahara Okeroa – Te Tai Tonga
37. Martin Gallagher – Hamilton West
38. Clare Curran – Dunedin South
39. Grant Robertson – Grant Robertson
40. Chris Hipkins – Rimutaka
41. Brendon Burns – Christchurch Central
42. Ross Robertson – Manukau East
43. George Hawkins – Manurewa
44. Harry Duynhoven

Green

1. Jeanette Fitzsimons
2. Russel Norman
3. Sue Bradford
4. Metira Turei
5. Sue Kedgley
6. Keith Locke
7. Kevin Hague
8. Catherine Delahunty
9. Kennedy Graham
10. David Clendon

ACT

1. Rodney Hide – Epsom
2. Heather Roy
3. Roger Douglas

Maori

1. Tariana Turia – Te Tai Hauauru
2. Pita Sharples – Tamaki Makaurau
3. Hone Harawira – Te Tai Tokerau
4. Te Ururoa Flavell – Waiariki

United Future

1. Peter Dunne – Ohariu

Progressive

1. Jim Anderton – Wigram

I stress again these are not predictions. They are what the public polls indicate, but polls have not been done in all seats.