November 20, 2008 10:27pm by David Farrar

Scoop’s electorate predictions

I blogged the predictions Scoop made before the election for the electorates. Figure one should see how they went. This was the original article. I am only scoring seats which were seen as close.

Waitakere: This considered, it is difficult to predict for whom the Waitakere bell is likely to toll. Be ready to see a close result within 1000 votes either side. Prediction: Wins for National’s Key,and Labour’s Cunliffe, Carter, and Pillay. Wrong. Score 0/1
Auckland Central: Prediction: Tizard will lose Auckland Central by around 2000 votes. Correct. Score 1/2
Maungakiekie: Look for National to win Maungakiekie by around 1500 votes.. Correct. Score 2/3
Hamilton West: Prediction: Too close to call. Incorrect – Macindoe by 1,500. Score 2/4
Taupo: Prediction: As credible and affable as Mark Burton is, his political days have already peaked and Taupo looks set to become blue. Correct. Score 3/5
Tauranga: Prediction: Look for Pankhurst to poll third behind Winston Peters, who in turn will lose to Bridges by at least 3000 votes. Correct even though was over 10,000 votes. Score 4/6
Rotorua: Prediction: Look for National’s Todd McClay. And he did. Score 5/7
New Plymouth: Prediction: Do not be surprised if the result in New Plymouth is closer that one would expect. Harry will be back, but National will comfortably outpoll Labour here in the all important party vote. Incorrect – Harry’s gone. Score 5/8
Palmerston North: Prediction: Polish the shoes Iain, you are Parliament-bound.. Correct. Score 6/9
Otaki: Prediction: Don’t worry Darren, you’ll lose your support-base but at 19 on the Labour list, you’re back in with a grin. Correct. Score 6/9
Wellington: In Wellington there will be no change worth getting excited about. Labour is heading for comfortable wins in Rongotai (Annette King), Wellington Central (Grant Robertson), Mana (Winnie Laban), Hutt South (Trevor Mallard), and Rimutaka (Chris Hipkins). Correct for WC and Rimutaka so 8/11
WCT: Prediction: Damien, you have a slim chance thanks to Auchinvole. Damien lost. Score 8/12
Waimakariri: Prediction: Cosgrove by a whisker thanks to Waimak still being a bloke’s kind of place. Correct. Score 9/13
Chch Ctl: Prediction: Too close to call but if the Cantabrians are not feeling too parochial, then Duke, you might just get the nod! Correct. Score 10/14