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November 7, 2008 8:00am by David Farrar

General Debate 7 November 2008

Tomorrow is the day!

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General Debate

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Frank

Change wanted so vote accordingly
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November 7, 2008 8:02am
Lindsay Addie

Did the Labour strategist’s watch the classic Michael Caine flick ‘Get Carter’ and then morph their election campaign into ‘Get Key’ when planning out their tactics? In the couple of years Key has been the leader of the Nats the left have developed a rather unhealthy obsession with the guy. In the end it all came across as rather childish and spiteful. Having people like Mr Keizer in your corner helps too.

The endless nasty politicking they seem to actually enjoy will be the death of them if the polls are right.

We all have to get off our arses and VOTE THEM OUT TOMORROW.
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November 7, 2008 8:12am
Jack5

If anyone from the top half of the South Island is reading this: have you looked at the Christchurch Press today?

It looks like it was designed and edited by the Labour Party strategy committee. I’ve never seen anything as biased as this in a New Zealand newspaper before. A friend who has lived in Christchurch for decades says the Press has certainly never done anything like this before.

On the front page, complementing a stick-on label saying “vote Labour” is a half-page size picture of a woman holding a sign saying “vote left”. The liberal-left reporter Rebecca Todd on page three is headlined “Key gets most media coverage”. You have to go well down into the story to find that Key/National receive more negative coverage than Labour-Left. Pictorially, page 3 is dominated by a giant picture of the daughters of the late leader of the Greens, Rod Donald.

The letters page where the newspaper prints its editorials has a big cartoon by the humourless Moreau that ties in with the picture on the front page. It has George Bush and his executive team tied up in front of what is labelled the “Mad House”.
Then we go onto the front page of the next section which is labelled Election 08. THis story by another liberal, Dan Eaton, proves to be all about Labour and all the “good things that have happened under it, illustrated prominently with red arrows.

Today’s November 7 Press is a partisan, biased disgrace. I urge centre and right supporters to set it aside and consider it when their subscription comes up for renewal.

Meanwhile my friend wants to know if there is anywhere he can get death notices online. If there is, he says, he will buy a computer!
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November 7, 2008 8:20am
Lindsay Addie

jack5,

re the death motices the NZ Herald has a list online though I’m not sure if it covers all of NZ.
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November 7, 2008 8:24am
homepaddock

Tomorow’s the day – and it’s still about trust: http://homepaddock.wordpress.com/2008/11/06/trust-us/
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November 7, 2008 8:27am
Michaels

Vodafone are killing off the ihug brand slowly.
I have been with ihug since day dot, yesterday I found the need to open a new email account.
No longer is it ihug.co.nz……. It is now vodafone.co.nz 🙁
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November 7, 2008 8:27am
Rod

Just read the latest post over at http://newzeal.blogspot.com/
Don’t always agree with Trev, but it got me thinking.
Maybe Rodders is actually one of the best qualified MPs that will be in the House to be made Minister of the Environment.
He has a nice balance of qualifications in science, resource management and economics, with a good dose of common sense and practical experience tossed in.
Someone else can do prisons – let Rodders put the Greens out of business with 3 years of sound and popular environment management, and make a serious long term improvement to our environment, with sensible steps that support our much needed economic growth in tourism and agriculture.
He doesn’t do things by halves, and could no doubt really energise the genuine greens, and so sideline the red faction.
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November 7, 2008 8:32am
Lindsay Addie

Tom Scott’s cartoon today is a classic called “LET GO WINSTON”:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/0a17218.html
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November 7, 2008 8:34am
Rod

@ Jack5
They just pander to their audience of lefties that dominate Christchurch city. It’s about paper sales.
Don’t worry, Ilam is safe, and the country is in the bag.
And Christchurch Central might just switch and make the Press rethink its views on who still reads it.
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November 7, 2008 8:38am
dime

sorry iasked this yesterday.. but now cant find the thread.

is soper off zb releated to the labour MP?

that is all 😛
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November 7, 2008 8:38am
AlanG

Interesting article in today’s SMH:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24613493-25209,00.html

It paints a pessimistic picture of Clark and her cronies. I am one of many Kiwis living in Oz after having moved here due to lower taxes and higher incomes. However I’ve been following the lead up with a lot of interest – best of luck JK!
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November 7, 2008 8:40am
Rakaia George

Lindsay.

I find it really quite amusing that the vaunted “Labour Machine” decided to use the tactic of turning their opponents’ biggest strength (JK) into their biggest weakness. It seems that all along Helen Clark, for years their own greatest strength has become their biggest weakness.

Now that’s irony Alanis. 😀
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November 7, 2008 8:40am
AlanG

Oops, I meant “The Australian”, not the SMH 😉
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November 7, 2008 8:41am
Richard Hurst

I have to agree about the Press cartoonist Mike Moreau. If his cartoons were actually funny or showed some wit I won’t mind so much that he is so Left wing but his cartoons are often dull and unoriginal and tend to be very heavily labeled. Ultimately any attempt at humor he attempts is undermined by his trying to use his cartoons to preach and push his political views rather than provide humorous observation of both sides.
I have to agree with Jack5 about today’s Press as well. Not a surprise though considering this was the paper that backed the absurd “Earth Hour”. I think a certain editor is either pushing for Labour or he was out to lunch all day when today’s edition was being decided.
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November 7, 2008 8:42am
slightlyrighty

This morning, a colleague of mine sought me out.

He knows that I am a National voter. He said to me that he was a labour voter, but he took the time to listen to John Key, and liked what he heard. He thinks that Key is the man for NZ at the moment and that he is the man to take us forward in ways that Clark is not equipped to do.

He likes labour, but is scared of the greens.

He is voting National.

I do not think he is the only one thinking this way. The polls last night, especially the 3 poll, showed labour support falling, Nats rising slightly, act rising slightly. This is a good late trend and I can’t wait for tomorrow night.
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November 7, 2008 8:46am
Lindsay Addie

Rakaia George,

I have written a long piece about the overall election campaign over at my blog so I repeat all that but I think Key cleverly combated the Labour tactics by astutely ignoring it and playing the game his way which meant he came across in the campaign as a decent guy who could also handle Clark in the TV debates.

The attempted H-Fee smear will go down as one of the great blunders in NZ election history.
Kees Keizer and his helper Dunky were simply gifts from heaven!
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November 7, 2008 8:51am
Lindsay Addie

typo: should have said “won’t repeat all that”
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November 7, 2008 8:54am
democracymum

(Apologies posted in the polls thread by mistake)

Hope someone is keeping tabs on “Mike the Batman Williams” tomorrow in Auckland.
Because the odds are against them, and Labour will stop at NOTHING to win.
We must for the sake of our democracy, be very, very vigilant.

Tomorrow is a chance for New Zealand to turn the corner.
To put an end to the corruption and the lies that have buried our democractic freedoms for 9 long years.
It is an opportunity to polish up the old New Zealand, put some new tyres on her and put her
back on the road to success.

Tomorrow we get to say enough is enough!
Enough of the crime, enough to the waiting lists, enough to the inept handling of our economy.
It is the day that New Zealanders will get back their voices.
New Zealand was once a proud country of good moral character.
Under this Prime Minister much has changed.

On Saturday when I vote, I will be thinking of little Nia Glasse.
A little girl who had the misfortune to be born in to a family
where she was not loved, but treated like a meal ticket and
a plaything. She was not born into a stable family, but kicked
around (quite literally) from one person to another, each it
seems treating her more cruelly than the last. Her cannabis
fuelled “caregivers” took delight in torturing her in ways
that decent New Zealanders find unimaginable.

Tomorrow when I vote, it will be with this little girl in my
heart, because although she has gone to a better place
I will make a real stand to ensure that children like Nia,
can grow up in the New Zealand I remember.
A New Zealand that I can once again be proud to call my home.
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November 7, 2008 8:59am
PinkGina

A vote of thanks to DPF and this blog

Its been a daily event for me checking in and there has been some excellent threads. The stories and facts behind the news has been fantastic.

Two ticks to kiwiblog
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November 7, 2008 9:03am
Ross Miller

Here I am in Auckland having come down from the farm at the beginning of the week to campaign for and with Judith Collins (what she has done for the Vietnam veteran community has earned her my undying gratitude). So this is the the first time I have accessed Kiwiblog in the last little while. It’s noticeable that all the ‘lefties’; Roger, Jum, GWW et al, seem to have gone MIA …. moving, committed suicide, job hunting? don’t care actually and good riddance.

Papakura should be Labour territory but the reception Judith and the team gets on the streets is simply incredible. Yesterday we were at the ‘Say No to Violence’ rallly held in the town centre. Big ethnic mix and the sort of occasion that you would expect every politician to be at. Zip, nothing, zero from from Labour (or anyone else) … they were probably all still in bed (well it was only midday) while Judith was cheered when she got up to speak.

The previous day we ‘blitzed’ the Railway Station to pick up on the Evening Commuter traffic. There was a car full of teenagers in the carpark who, on seeing my rosette, started yelling out and waving their arms. Decided to take them on and went over but to my surprise and absoluite astonishment all they wanted was to wish National the best and to assure us that we had their vote. To look at them you might think that politics was the last thing onn their minds. Not so, when Judith turned up they wanted her to autograph their tee-shirts and they took several hundred flyers to distribute among their friends at a ‘gig’ that night.

And all through that day and yesterday the reaction was so supportive. Free food at a cafe; only met two Labour supporters on the street (and they were somewhat apologetic).

National will win Papakura by 11,000 and take 60% of the Party vote. Yiou heard it first.
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November 7, 2008 9:06am
Manolo

“Two ticks to kiwiblog”

I wholeheartedly second that opinion. Well done DPF.
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November 7, 2008 9:09am
RRM

Hmmm – looks like I’m not going to get my 4th Labour term, but the Maori Party pulling National’s strings will be a very acceptable consolation prize…
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November 7, 2008 9:13am
bearhunter

I enjooyed today’s Herald front page. A big headline saying that Key was a shoo-in, while Labour had coughed up a small fortune to have a desperate little sticker saying “vote for us” on the front.
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November 7, 2008 9:17am
Ratbiter

“Because the odds are against them, and Labour will stop at NOTHING to win.
We must for the sake of our democracy, be very, very vigilant.”

FFS get real! It’s pretty clear from the polling that National are going to win it. We don’t use Diebold electronic voting machines or other dodgy means like that where voting irregularities can be hidden. That is what you’re getting at, when you say “Labour will stop at nothing”, isn’t it?

Labour have pushed through some unpopular laws. That is why they are going to get voted out tomorrow. And that will be the end of them in their current form.
To bang ON and ON and ON about how they are some sort of corrupt evil empire that will stop at nothing to keep their hands on power and domination just makes a mockery out of this discussion forum.
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November 7, 2008 9:24am
xy

Yeah, Moreau is a terrible terrible cartoonist.

I still don’t have anyone to vote for, as an ex-Green voter. Labour are full of fail and deceit. National realistically aren’t going to do anything about climate change. The Greens got fuck all done, wasting their political capital on non-environmental issues – if I vote for them again I’m voting for 3/4 social engineering I don’t care about. ACT just sent me a climate change denying email, and they’ve buried the appealing classical liberalism behind badly-spelled posters and hang-em-high – nice jacket though. Progressives/Kiwi/Dunne? Don’t make me laugh.

So I’m white as the driven snow and I’m probably going to vote for the Maori party just to reduce their overhang and re-proportionalize parliament a bit.
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November 7, 2008 9:32am
Murray

Governments are like nappie. They should be changed regularly and for the same reason.
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November 7, 2008 9:33am
pywacket

Can someone please tell me:-

1. What was Labour’s majority in Rimutaka in 2005?

2. Has there been a recent poll in that electorate to indicate how the candidates are faring?

I’m concerned that Peters decided to head down there and campaign for Mark – is there any chance of the unthinkable happening?
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November 7, 2008 9:37am
Lindsay Addie

pywacket,

Here are the 2005 results bear in mind the boundaries have changed for 2008.
http://2005.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-45.html

It used to be Swain’s electorate so it’s going to take something special to move Labour out of that seat.
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November 7, 2008 9:45am
16a Highbury Rd

Saw something great on my walk into work this morning.

Grant Robertson and his cronies were holding Labour signs at the traffic lights at the top of Bowen Street where it meets Tinakori Rd.

With not many honks from passing cars Grant and his team were very subdued just standing there looking miserable. By the way his supporters were a very odd bunch, middleaged woman and men with bobble hats who were unlikely to ever be more than 2 yards from their thermos flasks and who undoubtably had far too many cats at home plus young students who looked like they had been dressed by their Grandmothers.

Anyway out of the blue (excuse the pun) along came the Nats with their placards. They were cheering and having a great time and on arrival shouted out a very cordial greeting to Grant and also told him that he might be interested to know that there were some great situations vacant in todays Dominion Post.

This was a young, good looking National crowd and they dominated the intersection with their waving and cheering to passing motorists. It goes without saying that strangely silent before the sound of tooting car horns was now everywhere.

I know, with the ammount of people in Wellington creaming it off Government largesse, getting them to vote for anyone but Labour is the equivalent of trying to get turkeys to vote for Christmas but I really hope Stephen Franks can do it.
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November 7, 2008 9:53am
WraithX

Actually – the comments above concerning Rimutaka made me wonder – should National voters be strategic and voting labour there to ensure that Mark doesn’t get in? Or will Mark split the left vote in rimutaka and make a National win possible? Now that Swain has gone maybe there is a chance…
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November 7, 2008 10:00am
Fisiani

Public Notice #1

There will be a state house eviction party and garage sale at Premier House Tinakori Road Wellington 10am on Sunday 9th November.

Public Notice #2

You cannot smack a child but you can really smack Helen and Labour

Public notice #3

You can have a better government in just two ticks

Public Notice #4

Voters are reminded to hold up a big NO placard to Winston

Public Notice #4

The knowledge wave is not our brightest and best heading to Australia. It is the good people of NZ giving a good old fashioned two fingered salute to the Axis of evil.
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November 7, 2008 10:01am
Madeleine

So appalled at Grant Robertson’s campaign in Wellington Central against Stephen Franks we wrote this: Fisking Grant Robertson.
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November 7, 2008 10:08am
llew

I know, with the ammount of people in Wellington creaming it off Government largesse, getting them to vote for anyone but Labour is the equivalent of trying to get turkeys to vote for Christmas but I really hope Stephen Franks can do it.

I wonder – a lot of public servants commute from other electorates. Wgtn Central hasn’t always been Labour.
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November 7, 2008 10:12am
Lawrence Hakiwai

Chris Trotter said it all this morning on Sunrise(yes I am one of their three viewers)…..”My heart says yes, but my calculator says no”. When Chris Trotter calls it for National the day before the election, I think it’s time to put the champagne in the fridge.
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November 7, 2008 10:12am
casual watcher

Have Labour had their hands in the till again ? Their ads are everywhere – labour sticker on the Herald this morning, stuff in the letterbox earlier in the week, TV ad with misery guts mother and child, ads all over the internet and the newspapers – I thought they were broke ! Contrast that with the rich prick Nats who must still be sitting on a mountain of cash – they are going to get there but they have taken a risk and relied on Labour to keep fucking things up. Key will need to sweep out the Nat corridors for the next election – M McCully for a start. In the meantime have got a mountain of booze in for Sat night and will take the remainder of the fireworks down to Mt Eden for Helens concession speech. Helengrad is about to be liberated – Yeehaa !!!
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November 7, 2008 10:13am
16a Highbury Rd

llew,

“a lot of public servants commute from other electorates. Wgtn Central hasn’t always been Labour.”

It is not just the public servants. There are a lot of businesses in Wellington from taxis to cafes to commercial property owners who benefit from a highly populated, high spending public service.
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November 7, 2008 10:24am
Inventory2

democracymum – excellent thoughts – just heard Justin du Fresne read it out as well – WELL DONE!
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November 7, 2008 10:28am
Chuck Bird

Did anyone hear Edwards the other night after the TV1 debate claim firstly that National was digging for dirt on Peter Davis and secondly spent 25k to rig the TV polling?

Before making these unsubstantiated claims Edwards decried muck raking. Let us not forget that Edwards has repeatedly claimed that it was National that started the rumours that Clark was a lesbian. He never produced any evidence to support this allegation.

Three days out form an election he makes another unsubstantiated claim against National. He claimed that some National officials were bragging or joking how they rigged the TV polls at the mere cost of 25k. If this was somehow true does anyone think that National Party officials would tell Brian Edwards what they did – hardly like. There are two other options. The first option is that Edwards is repeating what someone told someone who told someone. The second is that he is just making the whole thing up.

There are plenty unsubstantiated rumours about Clark. National will not be part of spreading these rumours unlike Labour who is happy to use secret tapes that were obtained by some creep by lies and deception. I am sure Clark heard those tapes before TV3 played them. I would not be surprised is she heard one with Key and has decided in would be bad for Labour to allow it to be leaked.

Brian Edward like Clark and Williams is muck raker. I am not entirely against muck raking but the fact should be true.
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November 7, 2008 10:28am
Inventory2

Just a friendly reminder to anyone from Rimutaka who might be considering supporting Ron Mark

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2008/11/message-to-rimutaka-voters.html
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November 7, 2008 10:32am
16a Highbury Rd

“Edwards has repeatedly claimed that it was National that started the rumours that Clark was a lesbian”

It was Clark herself who started these rumours by looking and sounding like one.
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November 7, 2008 10:32am
PhilBest

casual watcher (259) 1 0 Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 10:13 am

“Have Labour had their hands in the till again ? Their ads are everywhere – labour sticker on the Herald this morning, stuff in the letterbox earlier in the week, TV ad with misery guts mother and child, ads all over the internet and the newspapers – I thought they were broke…..”

My very thoughts, Casual Watcher………

Maybe an “opening of the books” exercise by the new National government in a few weeks, eh?
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November 7, 2008 10:33am
mudmum

have been standing on the side of the road in Northcote this morning (cold and wet!!!). Same to report as others – lots of apparent National support (I know it’s not unexpected there – Jonathan coleman does a good job), but support from most unexpected places – big truck drivers; youths in beaten up looking old cars; lots of Asians – just across the board really. The dour old Labour lot were further up the road, maybe one toot every 10 minutes. They didn’t even bother last time, old Ann fartly thought nothing would dislodge her! When I walked past them on my way to get to work and commented about cold feet, in a friendly manner, they just turned away when they realised I was National. If you’re not having fun, don’t do it!
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November 7, 2008 10:34am
Murray

We can hope Trotter will go down with his ship, red flag flying and all.
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November 7, 2008 10:34am
PhilBest

# RRM (1302) 1 3 Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 9:13 am

“Hmmm – looks like I’m not going to get my 4th Labour term, but the Maori Party pulling National’s strings will be a very acceptable consolation prize…”

Every cloud has a silver lining, RRM. After the Maori Party leadership’s recent comments about “work for the dole”, I look forward to their overseeing welfare reform that no mainstream party would have had the guts for.
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November 7, 2008 10:36am
Portia

There’s an interesting article in the NZ Herald about the number of US Presidents who were raised without fathers

http://blogs.nzherald.co.nz/blog/keeping-mum/2008/11/7/fatherless/?c_id=6&objectid=10541634

This would also apply to John Key, n’est pas?
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November 7, 2008 10:39am
PhilBest

re. Labour supporters standing by the roadside, I remember Tom Scott years ago talking about the number of drivers who “honked” in support, versus the number of drivers who slowed down and shouted out of their car windows “freeze, you bastards….”
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November 7, 2008 10:42am
llew

It is not just the public servants. There are a lot of businesses in Wellington from taxis to cafes to commercial property owners who benefit from a highly populated, high spending public service.

True – but do all those business owners & workers live in Wgtn Central? Or do they commute in. That’s all I’m questioning. I live in Wgtn Central, my neighbourhood is pretty evenly divided between middle class (mostly white), probably Nat voters (the guy across the road is big in National circles) and university students. You’ll be cheered to hear that evertyone I have spoken to in the neighbourhood says they’re voting for change.

(Mind you, last time I mistakenly thought Blumsky was in with a chance).
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November 7, 2008 10:47am
Fisiani

The Labour majority in Wellington Central was 6100 approx. in 2005
Assume 1,000 were personal votes for Marion Hobbs. That is a reasonable and conservative assumption.
Assume 1,000 National voters were turned off by candidate black eyed Mark Blumsky who was not the sharpest tack in the box and switched giving split electoral votes to Hobbs. If they return to Franks then that is another 2,000.
Labour lead now only 3,100
Stephen Franks has a huge name recognition and was stellar in his intelligence and acumen in his appearances at meet the candidates meetings.
I reckon he is worth at least 1,500 personal votes
Labour majority now only 1,600
Yesterdays public outing of Grant Robertson as gay activist in The Dominion will not affect most young people but will definitely sway older voters. Perhaps another 600.
Labour lead only 1000
Great letter in Dominion post encouraging getting 4 MPs for the price of one by electing Stephen Franks worth perhaps 200.
Labour lead only 800.
Fantastic campaigning door to door in Wellington by Franks mighty team especially in Labour heartland areas worth 300
Labour lead only 500
And then nationwide rise in National vote from Labour. Worth perhaps 2,000

Result Stephen Franks with a 1,500 majority on election night rising to 1800 after specials.

My crystal ball is very accurate,. Watch this result tomorrow night
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November 7, 2008 10:47am
llew

Result Stephen Franks with a 1,500 majority on election night rising to 1800 after specials.

My crystal ball is very accurate,. Watch this result tomorrow night

Will do – will raise a glass if you’re close & expect you to send me next week’s lotto numbers in return.
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November 7, 2008 10:50am
Ryan Sproull

Did anyone hear Edwards the other night after the TV1 debate claim firstly that National was digging for dirt on Peter Davis and secondly spent 25k to rig the TV polling?

How would National spend 25k rigging the TV polling?
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November 7, 2008 10:54am
s.russell

Re Rimutaka,

There are some Labour supporters who would cynically vote for Ron Mark to get NZ First back in, and thus boost Labour’s chances of retaining power. But most Labour voters are just ordinary Kiwis, and are as disgusted by Peters as the next person. I cannot imagine large numbers of them taking such action.

Besides, consider the numbers. Swain got 18,681 votes at the last election, to National candidate Mike Leddy’s 10,404, a majority of 8277. But with new candidates the party vote record is a better guide to how the candidate vote might go.
There it was Labour 16,558, to National 11,791, a majority of 4767, with 1736 for NZ First. Boundary changes should help National. Now, the four latest polls show National leading Labour by about 14%. On that basis you might expect an average shift of about 4900 votes to National. So, Labour is teetering on the edge of losing the seat to National. Even if the NZ First vote held up, about 90% of Labour voters would have to vote for Mark for him to get in.

Conclusion: It’s not going to happen.

while Rimutaka is a safe Labour seat, the swing to National is so big that it would probably require about 90% of 8277.
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November 7, 2008 10:55am
Lindsay Addie

My electorate of Chch Central will be a good scrap. This seat is a red ribbon Labour seat and has been for years with Bruce Barclay and then none other than Geoffrey Palmer holding the seat for many years between them.

Labour for some strange reason picked an out of towner! We are rather one eyed down here! 🙂

Brendan Burns the Labour candidate isn’t very high on the list at 49 so he has to win the seat to get into Parliament. The Nats wisely picked a well known local candidate Nicky Wagner. This one could be a real turn up on election night and would be a real body blow to Labour to lose this particular seat to the Nats.

The demographics have changed with the new boundaries so National do have a good shot at this one.
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November 7, 2008 10:58am
big bruv

I see the low life left are in panic mode, Key was abused yesterday in Christchurch and the bastards are at it again in Palmerston North.

Why do the left have such a problem with democracy and why do they insist on using violence?
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November 7, 2008 11:02am
Fisiani

My crystal ball shows a stunning trifecta
National will win Auckland Central. Wellington Central and Christchurch Central
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November 7, 2008 11:03am
Lindsay Addie

Fisiani,

I would take great delight in seeing those seats go to the Nats!

😆
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November 7, 2008 11:04am
Buggerlugs

Howard Broad – will he have a drink tomorrow night and then take his car out for a spin? Any young constables on traffic duty looking for a promotion could do worse than to follow him about….
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November 7, 2008 11:05am
Buggerlugs

PS meant to add that I think Labour’e election return will show a huge overspend. Jail, anyone? Or perhaps community service wearing bright orange overalls?
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November 7, 2008 11:07am
Chuck Bird

How would National spend 25k rigging the TV polling?

Ryan you should be asking Brian. He made some wild claim that some was using auto dialers. Unlike the Stuff polls the TV polls cost $0.99. Why do you not ask him if he has any proof?

You are a nice enough guy Ryan. Why do you still support a party that continually uses dirty tricks?
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November 7, 2008 11:09am
s.russell

Re Wellington central

Marian Hobbes won in 2005 with a majority of 6180. The Labour vote exceeded the National vote by 4423, so the personal vote wasn’t huge.

I do not think the personal and local factors will be as big as Fisiani suggests, but I do not (now) live there so it is hard for me to judge. Remember too all the public servants who have done so well out of Labour in Wellington, and fear for their jobs under National.

But a shift from a 2% win nationally for Labour to a 14% loss (average of TV3, TVNZ, Herald and Fairfax polls) would translate to a shift of up to 5000 votes in a typical electorate. Wellington Central however usually has a very high turnout, so it could be more.

Putting all that together, the prediction of a 1500-1800 majority for Franks could well be accurate.
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November 7, 2008 11:14am
Portia

“It was Clark herself who started these rumours by looking and sounding like [a lesbian].”

16a Highbury Rd, I’m sure you didn’t mean to appear bigoted, so I suggest that you preface such statements with the Seinfield qualifier, “not that there’s anything wrong with that…”

In any event, you boys ought to get out more and swat up on your pop culture. It’s all about lesbian chic these days and I tell you what, Helen Clark does not look or sound anything like a lesbian by today’s standards!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1Y8utsY6LY
http://www.celebrity-gossip.net/celebrities/hollywood/lindsay-lohan-and-sam-ronson-beach-bliss-208084/
http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20220057,00.html
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November 7, 2008 11:16am
francis

Portia’s SO right. Sigh.
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November 7, 2008 11:24am
PaulL

Ah, so when Edwards says TV polling, he is talking about the unscientific dial in polls, not the big TV polls that they commission from reputable pollsters? If so, then it is definitely possible. Of course, we should lay Edward’s unsubstantiated allegations of rigging by the right in an environment where each vote costs $1, to the substantiated rigging of newspaper online polls by the left in an environment where it is nearly cost free. Did he perchance mention that?
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November 7, 2008 11:32am
Colin

BTW could some one explain to me why GrumpyHori and his bros gets the opportunity to choose which of 2 electoral roles he can best leverage his vote on AND I don’t get that choice?

AND
Is that fair?
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November 7, 2008 11:33am
Lee C

http://monkeyswithtypewriter.blogspot.com/ please take a moment to vote in THE one poll that counts…
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November 7, 2008 11:36am
labrator

Have Labour had their hands in the till again ?

I don’t know but I’ve gained a small amount of pleasure by clicking on every single online Labour party ad I’ve seen for the last month.
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November 7, 2008 11:43am
Richard Hurst

Just read the news about things getting physical in Palmerston North at a JK event. Yesterday things got physical at a JK event here in Christchurch. Both times involved small groups of aggressive and arrogant Labour activists starting trouble by pushing and shoving.
Labours last and final tactic: Violence.
Shame on you Labour.
Save our democracy and civil society: two ticks National.
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November 7, 2008 11:45am
Lindsay Addie

Tracy Watkins of the Dom-Post has been handing out some election campaign awards:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/vote08/4752772a28605.html

Here is some of them:

LOUDEST BACKFIRE: Labour president Mike Williams, who flew to Melbourne and photocopied 24 kilograms of court documents in a desperate bid to implicate National leader John Key in the infamous H-fee financial fraud, only for the bomb to go off in his face.

WORST-TIMED TRIP: Prime Minister Helen Clark falling flat on her face as she entered a Christchurch cafe the day the news of Mr Williams’ failed dirt-digging became public.

BEST CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENT: Outrageous Fortune star Robyn Malcolm for the Greens, who said it’s important to be Green, but it’s OK to overindulge in shoes, chocolate and sex.

BEST BACKFLIPS: Miss Clark, who started by saying that entrenching the Maori seats was pointless, then said she was not against it in principle and then said it was always Labour policy – and in fact would be a good idea to fend off National plans to abolish the seats. Mr Key, who went from describing Working for Families as communism by stealth to extending it to protect workers who lose their jobs in the recession and promising to defend it against ACT.

SPINSTER AWARD: Mr Peters for denying he had used helicopters for campaigning, then arguing it was only once, then admitting it was twice, but arguing that reporters’ questions implied it was from the door of the helicopter as the rotors were turning – which no one had even vaguely suggested.

THE HELL HATH NO FURY AWARD: Billionaire expat Owen Glenn, who proved that it’s never wise to cross a man who knows where the skeletons are buried.

THE TOYS OUT OF THE COT AWARD: Miss Clark for accusing Mr Key of having a tantrum during the One News leaders debate after most pundits declared him the winner.

🙂
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November 7, 2008 11:54am
16a Highbury Rd

Portia,

Thank you for the advice. I should clarify that I think there is nothing wrong with being a lesbian especially one of the “chic” variety. I could very happily talk with you on the subject of woman/woman love for hours. I appreciated the visual aids you provided as well.

On another matter I see the the Standard have published Key’s itinerary for today in an obvious attempt to encourage leftie thugs to attend and start trouble.
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November 7, 2008 12:01pm
democracymum

More underhanded tricks from the left
Have a look at this!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10541666
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November 7, 2008 12:15pm
Morgy

I have the wine, I have the food, I have the whiteboard (not really) so now the big dilemma; which TV channel to watch. Does anyone know who is in who’s TV election night coverage teams as their ‘expert’ panel?
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November 7, 2008 12:21pm
georgebolwing

Spare a thought for all the poor “right thinking” voters of Ōhariu. How do we get rid of Peter Dunne while retaining some semblance of integrity?

Charles Chauvel will probably come second and might make it in off the list anyway, but voting for him just gets you whoever is below him on the Labour list elected. And I just can’t bring myself to vote for Katrina Shanks, even if it is for a good cause. One should not encourage such people to think that they might actually have some supporters.

And voting for Colin du Plessis just seems like the waste of a good tick, since he will presumably come fourth.

Any advice from Kiwibloggers much appreciated.

Is it too late to move electorates?
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November 7, 2008 12:26pm
tknorriss

S.Russell: “while Rimutaka is a safe Labour seat, the swing to National is so big that it would probably require about 90% of 8277.”

The other possibility with tactical voting by Labour in Rimutaka is that National could come up through the middle and win the seat.
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November 7, 2008 12:39pm
dave strings

Portia

Having now read a substantial tome on the lesbian approach to love and sex, I have decided to come out of the closet and admit that I too am of that persuasion. Do you know anywhere in Wellington I can meet other kindred spirits?
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November 7, 2008 12:41pm
senzafine

This morning the Smiling whipping boy darren hughes was on the side of the road in paraparaumu with about 4 supporters. even though he only won by 362 votes last election, darrens quite popular in P’ram. Yet i did not see or hear a single wave or toot!

By contrast Hekia Parata’s crowd had holed up on the corner of SH1 and the papakowhai turnoff. It was a veritable sea of blue and there wasa distinct cacophany of horns. People assume Mana is winnie labans by default. I’m not so sure.
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November 7, 2008 12:44pm
16a Highbury Rd

Just seen Sue Kedgeley down at Midland park I know she is against methane emmissions but that didn’t stop me letting one rip as I walked past her.

There were greens doing some wanky political theatre. What is it about Green activists that they all look like 12 year olds wearing fake Armish beards. They also all seem to be lacking the gene that lets them feel embarrasment.
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November 7, 2008 12:51pm
Loxton

I AM GOING TO QUOTE YOU A FEW STATISTICS

THERE IS THE SAYING THAT THERE ARE 3 TYPES OF LIES…
LIES
DAMNED LIES
AND STATISTICS.

HOWEVER, MOST OF THESE ARE TAKEN FROM NZ GOVT WEBSITES AND BECAUSE THEY ARE SO SHOCKING I CANNOT THINK WHY THEY WOULD WANT TO TWIST THEM. THEY MAINLY COMPARE US TO OECD COUNTRIES -30 OR SO WESTERN NATIONS, ON A PER HEAD BASIS.

OUR POSITION!

TEENAGE PREGNANCY 3RD HIGHEST

TEENAGE ABORTION 8TH HIGHEST

DEATHS FROM CHILD MISTREATMENT 4TH HIGHEST

MALE YOUTH (15-24) SUICIDE RATE 3RD HIGHEST

FEMALE YOUTH (15-24) SUICIDE RATE THE HIGHEST

WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN ?

CANNANBIS USE 1st

AMPHETAMINE USE 3rd

DIVORCE RATE 8th

ASSAULTS 7th
.
CRIMES PER CAPITA 2nd

THERE ARE OBVIOUSLY ARE A HUGE AMOUNT OF POSITIVE STATISTICS RELATING TO THE REST OF OUR LIFE HERE –
BUT WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE A GREAT PLACE TO RAISE KIDS – BUT ARE WE LOSING THIS ?
WE HAVE AN ELECTION AND NOW IS THE TIME TO GET THE POLITICIANS TO TELL US WHY THESE FIGURES ARE SO BAD AND WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO DO ABOUT IT.
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November 7, 2008 12:59pm
Portia

Hey Dave and Highbury Rd guy. Not personally, but if you head down to Parliament right now, you may find the woman of your dreams. Just a note though – girl on girl action porn-style is not the same as lesbian chic…
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November 7, 2008 1:06pm
mattyroo

Kinda feels like christmas eve……
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November 7, 2008 1:14pm
senzafine

Portia – I’ve just been down there. And never have I seen such and gratuitous display of used up old[young] hags in my life.

The highlight for me was the Maori party supporter preaching that everyone should have a beer and get stoned.
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November 7, 2008 1:19pm
kiwipolemicist

colin said “BTW could some one explain to me why GrumpyHori and his bros gets the opportunity to choose which of 2 electoral roles he can best leverage his vote on AND I don’t get that choice?

AND
Is that fair?”

No it’s not fair, it’s called reverse racism. The Marxist origins of this are explained here:
http://kiwipolemicist.wordpress.com/2008/09/06/i-am-pakeha-and-i-am-oppressed/
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November 7, 2008 1:23pm
mudmum

You’d think the Greens would already be telling Labour to save fuel etc. But they’re not. Not if the number of times the reds have driven up and down Queen Street Auckland is anything to go by. They’ve been at it for around 3 hours now. Just up and down, up and down, with their silly loudspeakers and not much else. Meanwhile, the Nats are over the road at the Aotea market, actually engaging in meaningful conversation with people. Two ticks for National!
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November 7, 2008 1:34pm
adc

re Brian Edwards – I’ve posted about him before. He’s one of Helen Clark’s personal PR advisers. He lectures on politics and spin.

I think probably a lot of the poisonous lies coming from Helen’s mouth come from him.

Credibility = 0.
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November 7, 2008 1:40pm
adc

the thread was

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2008/09/actually_there_are_three_people_who_believe_winston.html
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November 7, 2008 1:42pm
Ryan Sproull

Cool little quote from Obama:

“So when Brian Williams is asking me about what’s a personal thing that you’ve done [that’s green], and I say, you know, ‘Well, I planted a bunch of trees.’ And he says, ‘I’m talking about personal.’ What I’m thinking in my head is, ‘Well, the truth is, Brian, we can’t solve global warming because I fucking changed light bulbs in my house. It’s because of something collective’.”
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November 7, 2008 1:47pm
getstaffed

If Helen has dirt on Winston,

… and Winston has dirt on Helen,

… and they’re currently in a mexican standoff because they fear voter backlash kicking them from office,

… then what happens when they’re both kicked from office and the dirt is still, um, burried?
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November 7, 2008 1:56pm
philu

“..Fisiani (85) Vote: Add rating 2 Subtract rating 0 Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:03 am

My crystal ball shows a stunning trifecta
National will win Auckland Central…”

fuck..!..you are seriously deluded..

your candidate has 19% support…tizard has 42%..

..and the green candidate is kicking nationals’ arse..

..she is on 22%..

..(22% green vote..mmm!!!!…warm and toasty..!…)

..dream on fisali..!

..you have all the credibility/gravitas of a drunken newt..

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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November 7, 2008 1:59pm
mudmum

Labour are still at it – that makes nearly four hours of mindless driving now….the best they do?
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November 7, 2008 2:13pm
16a Highbury Rd

Did that information come from a real poll phil or have you been polling your bong again.
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November 7, 2008 2:14pm
democracymum

Just asked the following question of the PM on Radiolive

“Prime Minister you said during the debate earlier in the week that although
you don’t believe in God you live your life according to Christian principles…
I wonder why it is then, that as a married woman you don’t wear a
wedding ring?”

PM (Lots of nervous laughter)
Is that anything to do with Christian principles?

Cut off

Well I’ve never been to a wedding in a church where the bride does not receive a ring!

Unless of course her wedding is just a sham
… But surely not?

The PM said we could trust her…
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November 7, 2008 2:37pm
kiwipolemicist

loxton said “BUT WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE A GREAT PLACE TO RAISE KIDS – BUT ARE WE LOSING THIS ?
WE HAVE AN ELECTION AND NOW IS THE TIME TO GET THE POLITICIANS TO TELL US WHY THESE FIGURES ARE SO BAD AND WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO DO ABOUT IT.”

Nothing personal against loxton, but this type of attitude is what allows the nanny state to flourish. Child abuse happens because someone *chooses* to abuse their child, and the only way the state can stop that is to outlaw breeding (Helen wants the state to raise children, but that will not prevent abuse by caregivers). Therefore expecting politicians to fix child abuse is futile unless you also expect the politicians to outlaw breeding.

If people expect politicians to fix their problems we will never be free of our slave masters:
http://kiwipolemicist.wordpress.com/2008/11/06/election-2008-choosing-your-slave-master/

Loxton, the figures you mention are so bad because children are raised to be hedonistic and because they are raised to believe that they are glorified pond scum.
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November 7, 2008 2:49pm
Ryan Sproull

You are a nice enough guy Ryan. Why do you still support a party that continually uses dirty tricks?

Chuck,

The dirty trick of warping phone-in polls or the dirty trick of accusing another party of warping phone-in polls? Everyone claims everyone else is being dirty.

I don’t support any parties. It’s one of the advantages of being an anarchist. What we lack in practical realism, we make up for in self-righteous arrogance.
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November 7, 2008 2:59pm
Rex Widerstrom

LOL Ryan… geez when you think about it, that last sentence of yours could apply to the lot of them. Now that’s a scary thought.
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November 7, 2008 3:02pm
philu

“..# 16a Highbury Rd (23) Vote: Add rating 1 Subtract rating 0 Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:14 pm

Did that information come from a real poll phil or have you been polling your bong again…”

http://whoar.co.nz/2008/green-candidate-in-auckland-central-has-22-supportand-is-beating-the-national-party-candidate/

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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November 7, 2008 3:05pm
Colin

democracymum; Try searching for her marriage certificate it might be harder to find than you think!!!
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November 7, 2008 3:10pm
Lindsay Addie

Roy Morgan Poll results out:
National 42%
Labour 34.5
Greens 10%
ACT 4%

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4334/

The poll was done between October 20 – November 2 which means they’ve done no polling past last Saturday, the numbers are different for National in particular compared to the polls like Colmar Brunton who polled up till Wednesday. This poll wouldn’t have covered the latest Winston Peters helicopter issue.
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November 7, 2008 3:19pm
Matthew Flannagan

The abuse we are taking on the Fisking Grant Robertson blog entry Madeleine alluded to above is the most extreme we have ever had on our blog, Grant has some nasty friends.

Stephen not only is a nice guy but is more qualified and is extremely sharp. He will bring a lot if he is elected back to parliament.
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November 7, 2008 5:43pm
bobux

How do we get rid of Peter Dunne while retaining some semblance of integrity?

Sorry, but Peter Dunne has been visited upon you as divine punishment for living in Tawa or Newlands. There is nothing you can do except move. If you can find another suburb willing to take you!
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November 7, 2008 6:57pm
workingman

I am out of NZ for the election. What is the best website for getting the results. I do not have a high speed link so hope to find a site that is not too graphice heavy.
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November 7, 2008 7:01pm
Chthoniid

Have blogged my voting intentions and a brief outline of why.

I note that while Labour has seen net deforestation occur in their watch, a burgeoning black market in native timber and increased import of tropical hardwoods, they had not released any forestry policies as of this morning. National, the Progressives, Greens and the Maori Party had. Forestry is one of the largest export sectors in the country and vital for biodiversity protection and GHG absorption.

And we have no forestry policies from Labour…

Good on National for getting one more in front of Labour.
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November 7, 2008 7:20pm
kaye

mattyroo at 1:14 pm ”Kinda feels like christmas eve……”

I feel the same, but I’m a teensy, weensy bit scared about what Santa will bring…

I’m doing my bit for National at a polling booth in Mt Albert tomorrow.
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November 7, 2008 7:28pm

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