General Debate 5 November 2008

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Inventory2

Will National respond to Fran O’Sulliavan’s call for a Commission of Inquiry into Peters, Vela and Meurant? I hope so!!

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2008/11/fran-wants-inquiry.html
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November 5, 2008 8:12am
Frank

The SFO and the Police whose members are in the Service of the Crown have disadvantaged the Voter in favour of Peters. this corrupt action is in breach of sections 99 to 116 (Bribery and Corruption) of the Crimes Act of 1961.
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November 5, 2008 8:12am
barry

I am prepared to take bets on the following:

If Obama wins (some might say when) the US election, the maori party will come out with some race based statement about solidarity with the afro americans and that its an indicator or guide for NZ voters.

But I can’t come to a conclusion about who it will be. Turia has a habbit of outlandish statements from time to time (which are at total odds with her usual statements) but I cant see a truely outlandish one in an Obama win. Sharples will have difficulty saying anything that doesnt include some dribble about historical ancestory – and I cant see too much of a maori-Obama ancestoral tie up. Flavell is too smart to fall for this sort of sillyness…
so it only leaves Harawira. I wonder what marvellous thing hone will come up with. No doubt it will include a new fact that the world didnt know until he announces it……
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November 5, 2008 8:13am
arkhad

I want to see a National led government win this election. Maori, Green, NZ First, Progressives cannot therefore be considered as they are willing to support Labour.

That leaves UF, ACT and National. I cannot stomach Peter Dunne and see a UF vote as wasted anyway. That leaves me with ACT or National. My question is this …..

From the point of view of making my party vote the most effective against any possiblility of Labour being able to form a government, is there anything I should consider? Does it make any strategic difference whether I party vote ACT or National?
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November 5, 2008 8:16am
Inventory2

Personally speaking arkhad, I would suggest that the only way to defeat Labour is to party vote National. Any dilution of National’s vote can only be to Labour’s advantage.
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November 5, 2008 8:21am
alex Masterley

The Hive’s post on dots is of interest (and concern).
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November 5, 2008 8:22am
Monty

I wonder what the parties will get on election day. No polls have been released for about 10 days but since then we have had Labour get very bad publicity day after day. The turning point of the election was when Bagman Mike Williams (at the behest and approval of the shifty and self serving Clark went to Australia to get the denotator for the H-bomb. Fortunately it blew right up in their faces and the election was lost.

Key has won both debates. Labour have only run negative ads. They have nothing to offer and no vision. The economy is tanking. So on Saturday I predict the results to be (I thnk the Maori Party will poll well but only win 5 and minimal overhang if any)

National 48.00% 61
Act 4.00% 5
Peter D 1.00% 1
Maori 4.00% 5
Jamderton 1.00% 1
Labour 29.00% 37
Greenies 8.00% 10
wasted 5.00% 6

100.00% 120

95.00%
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November 5, 2008 8:27am
democracymum

Who else thinks it is strange that Obama did not take his wife and children with him when he visited his
dying grandmother recently?

While I am sorry for his loss at such an important time, I think it is odd that his family did not
accompany him to say their last goodbyes.

Today I read, that his half brother, (who shares the same grandmother) was holidaying in Kenya
when she died. Which is I think all a little strange.
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November 5, 2008 8:30am
democracymum

Monty

I think your figures look pretty spot on and that result wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
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November 5, 2008 8:32am
ray

Regarding the Maori Party
Don’t forget that Turia’s father was an American, not sure how much maori blood that leaves but maybe she will now pack up and go to her other turangawaiwai

Depending on how our election goes of course
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November 5, 2008 8:38am
siobhan

Big ups to John Key for leaving Winston Peters standing on a street in Tauranga looking like a spare prick at a wedding.
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November 5, 2008 8:38am
adc

Hey, I didn’t see the wasted party on my election info pack… you reckon they will get 6 seats?

heh. I reckon someone should register a policitical party called “None of the above”. They’d win by a landslide.
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November 5, 2008 8:40am
kiwipolemicist

Winston Peters apparently prefers to live in an alternate reality.

I posted a mildly critical comment on winstonpeters.com and told them that I would be publicising my comment elsewhere but it has not made it through moderation. I also find a number of the comments on Peters’ blog suspicious:

http://kiwipolemicist.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/my-comment-on-winstonpeterscom/
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November 5, 2008 8:46am
Hagues

arkhad “From the point of view of making my party vote the most effective against any possiblility of Labour being able to form a government, is there anything I should consider? Does it make any strategic difference whether I party vote ACT or National?”

Inventory2 “Personally speaking arkhad, I would suggest that the only way to defeat Labour is to party vote National. Any dilution of National’s vote can only be to Labour’s advantage.”

With ACT guaranteed a spot in Parliament, then voting for ACT over National does NOT dilute the centre-right combined vote. But voting ACT over National does give ACT the ability to push for more change and brings in more of those at the top of ACT’s list at the expense of those at the bottom of National’s. ACT has some very good and highly qualified candidates at the top of their list.

National 53% ACT 2% = change of Government
National 49% ACT 6% = change of Government with some backbone and a change in direction.

At the end of the day, voting either ACT or National is a vote to change the government. So therefore you can choose to vote for the one that you think has the best policies for New Zealand.
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November 5, 2008 9:01am
grumpyoldhori

barry , as one Labour Maori type said to me, we can always rely on idiotic comments coming from Nat supporters to stuff up any chance of the Maori party going with the Nats.
Do not whine dear boy if you find those horis do not wish to join a Nat lead coalition to make up the numbers.
So what happens Barry if the Nat coalition find themselves two short of the numbers needed to govern ?
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November 5, 2008 9:07am
grumpyoldhori

Hagues, you must be dreaming if you believe that 6% is enough to get Key to put Douglas in as finance minister.
Big changes, a drop in the Nats belief in socialism, yeah right.
If it comes to a scrap between the Nats and ACT about direction, National can always call another election and then you will see ACT disappear if that happens.

Remember one thing, National and Labour have far more in common than National and ACT.
But I would enjoy the anarchy if ACT tried to get Douglas into the cabinet.
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November 5, 2008 9:16am
adc

Q for DPF re ipredict.

Looking to put some money on iPredict. If I put 1k on a labour PM, I stand to make nearly 5k back if Labour gets back in.
If I put 1k on Peters making parliament again, I stand to make 7k back. OK, I get that.

But if I buy shares in one of the party vote polls though, what do I stand to make if I’m right? There’s no chance that say Act could get 100% of the vote, so it will never pay out $1. In fact the chances of any of the parties significantly differing from their iPredict values is really small, so the chance to make any money is therefore also very small.

So why would anyone bother with these party vote stocks? Seems the most one could make is a couple of cents. Risk would therefore appear to be much lower as well. If there’s no financial incentive to invest in these stocks, then participation would likely be lower, and the prediction value must surely be diminished?

[DPF: You are right – some stocks are win all/lose all and some are win a bit/lose a bit. But different people will be attracted to different stocks. Each stock shows the volume of trading so you’ll have a fair idea of how reliable it may be]
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November 5, 2008 9:18am
stayathomemum

Hagues – my ingrained fear is that if enough people vote Act, National won’t reach the numbers necessary. I will be voting National to ensure the Left are eliminated from power in this country. I see the Left returning to power as a much bigger threat to NZs future, than Act having a smaller voice.
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November 5, 2008 9:25am
dime

grumpy – must you refer to Maori as “horis”?
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November 5, 2008 9:28am
barry

Hey there grumpyoldhori – the maori party will be very happy to do a deal with the Nats – reasons are:
1. They are both conservative groups. In fact from a purely conservative point of view the maori party is ultra conservative (traditional values, traditional family, respect old age, retain culture, etc, etc)
2. Who has made the most important and the first treaty settlements? – the Nats.
3. Who allowed kura kaupapa to get going ? – The Nats
4. Who is more likely to allow welfare distribution thru local iwi and or local maori bodies? – the Nats
(Labour would never agree to 3 & 4 )
5. Who took away the right to go to court to lay claim to seabed etc? – Labour
6. Which party has had maori support for years but has bugger all for them? – Labour

The Maori party people are well known for some apparently crazy public statements from time tot time, but they are fools and they know who is most likely to really help them, and who has the better record.
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November 5, 2008 9:29am
petal

Worth repeating:

“the only way to defeat Labour is to party vote National. Any dilution of National’s vote can only be to Labour’s advantage.”

Voted ACT every election. Still my party. But… “the only way to defeat Labour is to party vote National. Any dilution of National’s vote can only be to Labour’s advantage.”

On Sunday I don’t want to feel like I did approximately 3 years ago.
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November 5, 2008 9:31am
Hagues

petal you are thinking too much FPP. Its ACT/Nat vs Lab/Green/Jimbo/WINSTON that counts. National is not the only way to defeat Lab.

Voting ACT does NOT dilute the centre right block. If ACT is your party and you want ACT policy, then you must vote ACT.

If all the ACT members voted National just to get rid of Labour then all we will get is National policy. Tickering here and tinkering there. We need a strong ACT vote to get some policy concessions that will bring about real change.

It seems it needs repeating even more. Under MMP voting ACT does NOT diminish in any way the ACT/National chances of defeating the axis.
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November 5, 2008 9:49am
Monty

Labour corruption is rife

this needs to become the major news item leading 3 news tonight

elderly Chinese voters are being taken to early-voting stations by officials, coerced into casting their votes early – and being told where to put their two ticks.

Mr Lu said in Mandarin: “I feel that the Labour Party is taking advantage of the vulnerability of elderly Chinese voters.”

His mother-in-law, who wanted to be known as Mrs Chen, 72, said she felt “cheated” after casting her vote because she didn’t get the chance to listen to the policies of other parties.

“I don’t even know who I voted for. I just followed the instructions of the Labour Party man on how to fill in my form because my English is not very good. He was standing right beside me and telling me what to write and where to put my ticks,” she said in Mandarin.

What a bunch od corrupt wankers Labour have turned into. This should be headline news on TV3
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November 5, 2008 9:49am
Don the Kiwi

Monty.

The people involved can complain and request their votes be discounted – I think.
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November 5, 2008 10:06am
PhilBest

GrumpyOldHori, I would add to what Barry said above, that only the Maori Party in agreement with the Nats, is going to introduce “work for the dole”.

And Barry’s first point is a very important one. These astute Maori leaders KNOW that welfarism and the DPB and Nanny State and anti-family, immoral laws is what is ruining their people. Maori are like the canary in the coalmine of our society, you can be sure that if the rot isn’t stopped there will be lots of Pakeha Kahuis too within a generation or so.
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November 5, 2008 10:06am
getstaffed

Monty… do you have a link to that story?
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November 5, 2008 10:11am
Hagues

link to the Chinese vote scandal…

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10541172
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November 5, 2008 10:14am
adc

Say 50% of the country wants National to govern.

If those 50% then ALL voted National for their electoral vote and Act for their Party vote, there will be 60 National electorate MPs and 60 List Act MPs. That’s 120 National/Act.

Or thereabouts. You get the point. Of course this is a complete perversion of MMP.

This is why Labour supporters are strategically voting. I know of many people who back Labour who are voting for Richard Worth (the only person they see with a remote chance of displacing Rodney Hide – they are deluded) and Party vote Green, as a most useful coalition partner for Labour. Plus that lets them not vote Labour since they are mildly annoyed at Labour, but still prefer it to lead. Of course none of these people have read any Green party policy…
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November 5, 2008 10:21am
casual watcher

I want to know what the Nats are spending all their money on. It seemed to be accepted they had a huge war chest but there is not much evidence of spending. All I have seen is billboards for Africa which is great but virtually nothing on TV and nothing in the papers or on the internet. Will there be a last minute splurge to get the undecided votes or are they being too cocky and not spending ? Anyone know ?
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November 5, 2008 10:22am
WraithX

I am definitely splitting my vote – I am an ACT supporter all the way, but National will get my electorate vote. Sadly it will make no difference as Trevor Mallard is likely to get back in – but I will party vote ACT to give National spine.
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November 5, 2008 10:23am
WraithX

casual watcher: I have wondered that too – I have not seen a single National advert on the Net and not one on TV (though I must confess I watch almost no TV). In fact, considering I have watched only 3 hours of TV in the last two weeks, I am surprised to have seen one ACT advert (the anti-Greens one) – the rest have been labour – and I hear the “two johns” ad every night while my father is watching TV in another room.
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November 5, 2008 10:25am
DamnedAngry

GrumpyOldHori isn’t a Maori at all, he’s just a trolling impostor. Probably a Greenie.
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November 5, 2008 10:33am
Rakaia George

WraithX I’m following this strategy too – Sam Lotu-Iiga in Maungakiekie, I can’t abide the thought of whatever bootfaced old union hag the Reds have put up representing me!.

I have, however seen the JK “no seatbelt” ad, I had assumed the nats would be going for the last minute splurge of advertising, but perhaps their playing safe with spending assuming a bunch of desperate challenges from Labour?

While I’m here, does anyone know where I can get bonfire toffee in this socialist paradise?
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November 5, 2008 10:44am
Redbaiter

See that some moron at ACT was responsible for the complaint about Rod Hide’s jacket. Shame they they would indulge in that kind of deceit. There are some fucken idiots hiding behind ACT’s public image that really worry me.
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November 5, 2008 10:47am
s.russell

National or Act?

arkhad, either vote will be effective, and I suggest that you should vote for whichever one has policies you like best.

But, Inventory2 does have a valid point. If the Maori Party were to hold the balance of power a bigger vote for National would be more effective in placing moral pressure on them to bow to the will of the majority.
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November 5, 2008 10:58am
WraithX

Redbaiter: I am pretty stunned actually – I can’t believe Andy would be so stupid. How on earth did he think that would be a good idea? I seriously have to wonder what is wrong with the right wing in this country – there has been blunder after blunder. For the first time in my life I am wondering if there is any point in voting at all! I have been a staunch ACT supporter during the election so far and am really disgusted that Andy has done something that could potentially fuck up ACT’s chances.
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November 5, 2008 11:17am
WraithX

On another note – has anyone else noticed that the press seems to be playing a game with the election? First they help labour, then they help National, then Labour, then National, and now Labour again. The timing is too perfect to be a coincidence surely?
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November 5, 2008 11:19am
Redbaiter

“I have been a staunch ACT supporter during the election so far and am really disgusted that Andy has done something that could potentially fuck up ACT’s chances.”

Yeah, disappointing, but if they’re your party, you still have to support them. I agree tho, its hard to overlook something this stupid.
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November 5, 2008 11:26am
Inventory2

Hagues said “petal you are thinking too much FPP. Its ACT/Nat vs Lab/Green/Jimbo/WINSTON that counts. National is not the only way to defeat Lab.”

Hagues – I get where you are coming from – but from my perspective this IS essentially a first-past-the-post election. Realistically, only National or Labour can lead a government, so that to me is where the contest, or the choice lies. And no proizes for guessing who I’ll be choosing!!
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November 5, 2008 11:33am
toad

I wonder how impressed Rodney, Heather and Roger will be with some of the quotes I’ve found on frogblog from ACT’s No 10 ranked candidate Shawn Tan back when he was in the Green Party.
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November 5, 2008 12:19pm
Lee

“GrumpyOldHori isn’t a Maori at all, he’s just a trolling impostor.”

Thats a conclusion I have come to as well.
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November 5, 2008 12:26pm
freethinker

nventory2 (2280) Vote: 2 1 Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:21 am

Personally speaking arkhad, I would suggest that the only way to defeat Labour is to party vote National. Any dilution of National’s vote can only be to Labour’s advantage.

I think you may be wrong IV – take the following extreme example – National win 40 electorate seats but gain no party votes – Act gain one electorate seats and 40% of the party vote – there is an overhang of 40 National seats so Parliament is 160 seats thus the right have 81 seats making it impossible for any other collection of parties to form a majority. The point I make is an overhang to the right is beneficial so party vote Act, electorate vote national will more likely lead to a right leaning parliament than two ticks Nats. Otherwise Nats need 50% party vote plus half of any Maori overhang and one more.
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November 5, 2008 1:22pm
Hagues

Whats your point toad? Just shows anyone can be converted to the light. Who gives a shit what he thought back when he was brainwashed by the watermellons!
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November 5, 2008 1:31pm
Redbaiter

Hagues is right Toady. Maybe you should reflect on the fact that someone whom you once had some regard for has turned to the other side.
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November 5, 2008 1:39pm
WraithX

What the fuck is wrong with the Judges in this country?

Judge regrets having to jail teen sex offender [because he was 17 when he raped a young girl.]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10541289

and then:

Sex attacker allowed to stay in NZ [because his young victim might be ridiculed if she goes on holiday to Samoa]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10541269
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November 5, 2008 2:43pm
DamnedAngry

Hey Wraith, I was just in the process of pasting that here myself.

Man this country is so FUCKED!
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November 5, 2008 2:54pm
Buggerlugs

Is Andy Moore an idiot or what? Doh!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-election-2008/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501799&objectid=10541251
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November 5, 2008 4:30pm
Buggerlugs

I found this quote from toad on gblog:
““Do what Daddy says, or you will get a smack” is where ACT comes from, rather than “Do what Daddy says because it will be best for you and the rest of our family, and I’ll explain why”, which is where the Greens come from.”
Bet that will work when the nipper wants a chocolate biscuit, you cardy-wearing nincompoop.
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November 5, 2008 10:17pm
getstaffed

WraithX – that 17yr old…. The article paints a picture of a “1-time, I mucked up badly bloke” who “Has great caring family” and “Prison would only corrupt him” and “excelled in his work as a shearer” … and then concludes with:

“But he had inexplicably come to the attention of the authorities at the age of 17, amassing 18 convictions over five months, including the two today.”

So, a nice kid with a caring family eh?
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November 5, 2008 10:27pm

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