General Debate 18 November 2008

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dime

pretty dam happy to hear Mr Key talking about our shitty honours system this morning.

i personally hate what we have now…

what would you rather be? a Knight? or a NZCDA/4Y?
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November 18, 2008 11:42am
big bruv

I agree with you Dime, the sooner knighthoods are returned the better.

We need to be careful though, there was a rather worrying discussion on Radio live about this subject today, some dick head from the republican movement suggest we use Maori terms instead of Sir/Dame.
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November 18, 2008 11:50am
big bruv

Did anybody see the comments of Bob Geldorf at the weekend?

My overwhelming reaction to Sir Bob was one of……FUCK OFF.
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November 18, 2008 11:56am
dime

bruv – yea i heard that.. made me laugh… apparently they looked at using maori titles when they dropped knighthoods but couldnt come up with anything.
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November 18, 2008 12:00pm
Frank

Thank Heavens Political Correctness is now a NO, NO.
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November 18, 2008 12:04pm
PhilBest

Mike Moore’s latest column is entitled “The Dog That Isn’t Barking”.

He is talking about the almost total lack of coverage by the NZ media, of the economic crisis that NZ is in the grip of.

Those familiar with my comments here over the last few months will know that I couldn’t agree more.

Any theories why?

I have two theories. One is that the MSM is still so committed to the socialist narrative, that they can’t bear to put out any truth about the mismanagement of the NZ economy at the hands of Mikhael Kullen and Co, and can’t bear to give John Key any excuses for tough measures that they find distasteful; like cuts in government spending. They really are a bunch of swine.

The other possibility is that they are acting “responsibly” and avoiding public panic and runs on banks and the like, perhaps with the blessing of John Key. Good luck to NZ is that is the case – the financial distortions in place in our economy will take decades to iron out; for earnings and profits to come back into line with house values and household debt and overseas borrowings. And they probably will never iron out if we continue blithely on with the size of government and tax and spend that we’ve got. The Nats suggestions are really just tinkering compared with the size of the problem.

At least in 1981 it was admitted all round that we had a problem that needed Rogernomics sized solutions.
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November 18, 2008 12:09pm
PhilBest

The differences between 1981 and now:

In 1981, it was the State that was bankrupt. Now, it is New Zealanders themselves; if their houses moved to true value, and don’t think it can’t happen, look at Japan.

In 1981, it was the State that had huge overseas borrowings. Now, it is New Zealanders themselves, via their lending institutions.

We have been the victims of one of the cruellest hoaxes in the political playbook. Drive up housing prices, and let everybody get illusions that they are wealthy. Squeeze land supply. Let Japanese investment funds flow into a doubling of the money supply in NZ, and have a fiscal structure that ensures that this almost entirely flows into inflating house prices, rather than flowing into investment in any productive activity.

And we’re stumbling on blindly now, with no-one whose opinion matters, actually admitting the problem or daring to float the only solutions that will get us out of this.
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November 18, 2008 12:16pm
homepaddock

If we’re having our own honours why not the Order of the Kiwi so then it would be Joe (or Jo) Bloggs OK 🙂 http://homepaddock.wordpress.com/2008/10/26/nothing-like-a-dame-or-knight/
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November 18, 2008 12:17pm
WraithX

PhilBest: I certainly hope that things aren’t as dire as they seem – I just bought my first house!
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November 18, 2008 12:20pm
Inventory2

Did anyone else have the misfortune to read Linley Boniface’s vitriol and error-filled piece in yesterday’s Dom-Post?

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2008/11/bad-losers-3.html

Warning: contains material that may induce vomiting!!
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November 18, 2008 12:24pm
PhilBest

# WraithX (205) Vote: Add rating 0 Subtract rating 0 Says:
November 18th, 2008 at 12:20 pm

“PhilBest: I certainly hope that things aren’t as dire as they seem – I just bought my first house!”

I hope you followed Bernard Hickey’s advice and told the Real Estate Agents that you weren’t going to pay any more for any property than, 2007 peak value LESS 30%……..
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November 18, 2008 12:30pm
WraithX

Phil: I paid 50k less than 2007 peak value – though that isn’t 30%. However the area is good and the price was consistent with other sales in the area recently. Also, I plan to stay in the house and not sell – one day – 15 years or so away – I will make it a rental. I have taken a mortgage on the house which will be 15 years.
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November 18, 2008 12:37pm
kevin_mcm

Re Linley Boniface – I almost pissed myself laughing. What a wonderful piece of farce! I only hope they keep coming.
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November 18, 2008 12:39pm
Redbaiter

“Warning: contains material that may induce vomiting!!”

Yeah, sure does. Especially this bit-

“As is the case with most journalists, I find it almost physically painful to express admiration for a politician.”

Written in insane denial of their abject fawing over Helen Klark and worse, their recent obeisance to Obama. You know those surveys where professions are given respect ratings? The ones where journalists so often come out close to the bottom. I suggest that after their brazen cheerleading for Barack Obama, these shameless scum deserve a special ranking at least a couple of hundred rungs down from any other profession.
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November 18, 2008 12:49pm
Ross Miller

Is/was the Rugby League World Cup boring or more boring. Waching games played by countries where there isn’t even an established Rugby League competition (Scotland/Ireland/Fiji) with the teams made up of either English Super League or NRL players. An utter farce in determining the two finalists. Fiji beaten 52 nil. It was always going to be the Kangaroos vs the Kiwis with the English as also rans..
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November 18, 2008 1:01pm
peterwn

Interesting little aspect to the Ministerial appointments. On 15 August “sushi Goblin” (as far as I can work out is a crony of Aaron Bhatnager if not Aaron himself, noting that Aaron used a nym for Wikipedia editing) said in a comment on this blog:
“Peterwn, in fact Caughey did come under official National Party criticism for her appointment – from Transport spokesman Maurice Williamson, who I would have thought would carry more clout on transport related appointments than the weekly musings of Murray McCully.”

Just how much clout does Maurice carry on transport matters now, since he seems to be almost back in the departure lounge? It would seem that Murray McCully’s musings would now carry considerable weight.

I think that John Key is too much of a gentleman to immediately and arbitarily root out all appointees with alleged Labour allegencies from various Government boards – the drones, yes, but hopefully not those who are doing useful work and have not contributed to ‘dirty’ general election campaigning.
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November 18, 2008 1:12pm
mudmum

philbest: you present a singularly depressing view of our economy. I know things are rocky, but banging ob and in about it only creates a self-fulfilling prophesy. E.g. – if you wake up one day and think ‘what a poo day this is, I feel as grumpy as HC the day after the 8th november.” then guess what – everything you do that day will be poo and you’ll go to bed feeling jsutified in your thoughts about the day. If one wakes up feeling good and energised and translates that into putting energy and drive into your day, you’ll go to be thinking, “I knew it would be a good day today”. So, let’s try applying that on a wider scale – i think it’s great to wake up in NZ, where we still have the opportunity to work and earn and do better for ourselves and our families.
On a slightly different tack – i think you confuse price with value. WraithX – the price you paid for your house was exactly the right price to pay. Nothing is overpriced, if someone is prepeared to pay the price for it. It may appear to be overvalued to someone who doesn’t have the emotional buyin the purchaser did, but that is value. Personally, I think a $1000 pair of shoes is horrendous, I don’t see the value in a purchase of that kind. But, someone who has $1000 tp spare for a pair of shoes, does. So they are really neither overpriced nor overvalued.
Practically, if you have bought a reasonable house, in a reasonable area and can do a bit to it, you won’t lose financially and emotionally, them value is obviously just right.
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November 18, 2008 1:59pm
s.russell

I feel I should defend Linley.

1) I have read much nastier stuff than this, notably from Chris Trotter.

2) She is honest about her feelings and opinions, she doesn’t pretend to be neutral, as some “journalists” do while weilding the knife all the same.

3) She praises Helen Clark, but she does not get personally nasty about the Nats. The worst she does is draw a comparison between John Key and Forrest Gump. Gump was actually a nice person, with decency, integrity and kindness. And I have to admit, Key’s comment about his happy smiley self was a touch goofy.

4) She does admit to HC having flaws: becoming autocratic and making nice to sharks.

5) The vitriol directed at Clark that appalls her often was distasteful – as distasteful as the comments about Key from some on the left.

6) Some of her praise of Helen Clark is justified. Eg, she did run a stable govt for 9 years, not an easy task.

I do NOT feel the same way about the result as she does. I voted for National. But my disagreement would not justify bagging her as a sore loser. She is on the losing side, and may be feeling pain as a result, but that is not the same thing.
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November 18, 2008 2:07pm
Inventory2

Nia Glassie verdicts:

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2008/11/good-news.html
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November 18, 2008 2:14pm
goodgod

Oh come now, mudmum. Surely you don’t believe that if we all just ignore that there is no cash we’ll all get rich? Positive thinking is good for helping people to live in the present and find some kind of personal stability, but it doesn’t stop things happening…like stocks losing value, invading armies, or death. The challenge then would be to lose everything, owing to the crash, invasion or whatever and still be able to think positively.
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November 18, 2008 2:31pm
Banana Llama

Well the Automotive industry’s are set to implode unless they get a bail out , But don’t worry, be happy.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24629086-5013948,00.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72cHfOKoA1c&eurl

Some better information out there about car and heavy vehicle sales being down 30-50% this year alone with all the major manufactures, this isn’t even touching on the fact that the same grim scenario is being painted for Airplane manufactures and Airline company’s, Brand label owners and Retail chains.

But hey at least the Americans got Obama who will socialize the losses … Privatize the gains.
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November 18, 2008 2:46pm
PhilBest

Mudmum, you are right that attitude helps, BUT, we happen to live in a democracy, AND what governments do to us really, really matters, IF we are not all so thick that we haven’t a clue what is being done to us.

What happened in the Great Depression was that the government of the USA and the Federal Reserve Bank did all the wrong things, but because the politicians rhetoric pushed all the right buttons, the very people perpetuating the problem got voted back in again and again.

The same thing looks like happening again.

People are being sucked in to believing that all the problems we are facing are because of “free markets” and “capitalism”. Bullshit. The government controls the Reserve Bank, interest rates, and the money supply. The government has also got into the evil habit in the last few years, of strangling land supply for housing and forcing prices up. Then a classic “bubble” starts to inflate, and we’ve got problems.

If we continue in ignorance, there will be bigger and bigger crashes until there is one that it is impossible for any government to control or to help its citizens out.

I am saying that tax cuts, especially company tax, and cutting the size of government, and axing strangulatory controls on land use and business and enterprise generally, is our ONLY way out of this vicious cycle, but we have the media endlessly hypnotising us into believing that that is just an agenda of the greedy rich people for exploitation and oppression, yadda, yadda, yadda.

I am being very brief, but I do not believe that anyone can make a convincing explanation in economically literate terms, to the effect that everything is fine, just as long as we just keep on doing the same old same old.
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November 18, 2008 3:46pm
mudmum

Hi goodgod and philbest. No, I don’t believe that ignoring a ‘crash’ will make it go away, not that naive. But, if everyone does try to BE positive, not just ‘think’ positive, that will rub off onto the national psyche. If we do the same old thing, we get the same old results. At present, in NZ, we have a chance not to do the same old thing. We have perhaps the best chance we’ve ever had. We have a government, with a leader who seems not to be risk averse, who is canny fiscally and humane to go with it. If we all evince a willingness for change, and wish that change to be better for all concerned, then we have, as I said, the best chance for positive change we’ve ever had.
On the other hand, if we sit drearily by saying ‘nothing we do will ever make any difference’, then sure enough, it never will.
So, lets embarce change, positive change, for the good of all. Lets stop saying we’re doomed!
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November 18, 2008 4:06pm
PinkGina

PhilBest & Mudmum

Attitude is everything but doesn’t necessarily get results – shoes aint property where value is not determined by emotion alone unfortunately

From a property perspective, it doesn’t take rocket science to conclude that continued volatility in the financial markets coupled with even greater economic uncertainties keep property buyers and sellers apart. As time wears on, sellers will become more highly motivated and more distressed situations will emerge.

Buyers now have the advantage of time and the patience to wait for prices to fall. Patient or not, lack of financing keeps many buyers out of the market. With buyers still financially challenged and the level of distress among sellers rising, prices will be heading much lower.

What this means on a day to day basis is that the highest bid may no longer win the deal. Sellers are favouring buyers with no financing conditions. Reports of contracts not closing have again become more frequent and the credit crunch turmoil will only cause a new wave of re-pricing.

These conditions mean only one thing, there is at least another 20% fall in property prices.
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November 18, 2008 4:29pm
Rex Widerstrom

Well spotted Inventory2. I found the most telling passage from Boniface to be this:

…initiatives Miss Clark must have known would do her no favours at the ballot box, yet she pressed ahead on the grounds that her government was elected to represent all New Zealanders, not just the most powerful.

(This is in reference to measures such as S59, legalisation of prostitution etc). Now it just so happens I opposed the former and supported the latter. But regardless of how I – or anyone else – personally feels about any particular issue, what Boniface seems to be saying is that governments have some sort of moral imperative to force through measures which are opposed by the majority of those they claim to represent, so as to represent “all” New Zealanders.

So… rather than follow the wishes of the majority, you legislate the wishes of multiple outspoken minorities? Of course governments have every right to try to change the minds of sufficient people to garner majority support for a measure. That’s called leadership, and democracy. But to do so against clearly voiced majority opposition is totalitarianism.

Would Boniface be equally happy if, say, Key legislated in the best interests of that other vocal minority, the BRT, against the widespread opposition of ordinary New Zealanders?

Of course there are times when an urgent moral imperative justifies governments stepping ahead of public opinion on an issue – ending discrimination, say – and some of history’s greatest leaders have walked ahead of the majority on issues ranging from slavery to suffragism. But those are the exceptions, not the rule, and cannot be compared to, say, potentially criminalising parents who give their screaming toddler a smack in a supermarket aisle (and flip-flopping your position on the issue in the process) just to pander to a party which props up your administration.

Has Boniface not given even a perfunctory thought to the logical end point of her argument? Or is it a case of “Labour arrogance good, National arrogance bad”?
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November 18, 2008 4:37pm
labrator

The other possibility is that they are acting “responsibly”

I don’t think papers have the mandate or intelligence to act responsibly. They’re businesses built to sell papers, therefore, on average, their stories have to be on the bright side of positive otherwise they’ll just drive down their sales/profit.

WraithX, I hope you have significant equity in your new home, atleast 20%. Banks can and will demand equity in your property if they need the cash or think you’re a risk. It’s a last call of action for banks and won’t affect everyone so you need to have more equity than the bottom 30% of home owners.

Mudmum, you’re right on many things but the problem with the self-fufilling promise thing is that no one tried to stop it on the way up. In fact the editorial space that the REINZ managed to get even through the height of the boom was borderline criminal. Not one subjective article made it past the REINZ BS and so, seemingly intelligent people I know, bought houses on the maxim that “houses never go down in value” and I “better get on the ladder now or not at all”. Even yesterday in the Herald there was some fantastical piece from REINZ data about how the worst of the fall is over and now it’s time to buy houses again.
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November 18, 2008 4:47pm
mudmum

Labrator, don’t know that things are so gloomy in real estate. Prices lifted a little and days to sell dropped a little, compared to month before. Have friends who are agents and both are really busy. One sells mainly in sort of mid-range suburbia and she’s doing OK. The other sells in rural, farm and lifestyle territory and she’s almost never been busier. Has 2 or 3 deals going off every week in the last 4 to 6 weeks. Actually settling I might add – she’s planning her next 6 week overseas jaunt and contemplating buying herself another property. Only has one mortgagee sale on her books at present.
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November 18, 2008 4:54pm
labrator

Well, the Auckland chain of the professionals just went under for a start and if you’ve been following Barfoots figures for sales you’ll see they’ve dropped a lot in volume. Could be wrong obviously, we’ll just have to wait and see. Could also be that you know some of the better agents who will always get work. I’m hearing of a lot of agents not having sales in months but an agent friend of mine is also doing ok despite the downturn.
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November 18, 2008 5:03pm
bharmer

# Rex Widerstrom (1544) Vote: Add rating 0 Subtract rating1 Says:
November 18th, 2008 at 4:37 pm

(snip) But regardless of how I – or anyone else – personally feels about any particular issue, what Boniface seems to be saying is that governments have some sort of moral imperative to force through measures which are opposed by the majority of those they claim to represent, so as to represent “all” New Zealanders.

So… rather than follow the wishes of the majority, you legislate the wishes of multiple outspoken minorities?

There is nothing in our constitutional arrangements that require them to adhere to the wishes of the majority.

I had always thought that, in common with most other democracies, we had an electoral democracy in which “government is technically determined by popular sovereignty. In other words, people within that country decide who will govern them, or have the right and ability to vote”

To the best of my knowledge the only place in the world with direct democracy is Switzerland, and even then only at levels of decision making below the National one.

Our participation as I understand it, is in choosing people whom we hope will make the best decisions for the country. That does not require them to go back to public opinion for every issue. Nor, sadly, does it prevent them from getting it wrong, as I think they did in the cases you describe. And our remedy comes only at the next election.
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November 18, 2008 5:09pm
Portia

As times get a bit tougher, it seems that people are finding novel ways to pay their utility bills:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?cmp=nl_news_18november2008_7&mch=newsletter&id=665847
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November 18, 2008 5:10pm
wikiriwhis business

I remember the first year of the new Labour govt. Its first term was dream for them.

They couldn’t say a thing wrong and opposition was silent.

Same thing gthis time around. Ahuge sigh of relief has been emmitted over the nation and even with a huge recession in placew we feel secure in our blankets

Ironically fuel and food prices are dropping. If this trend continues into the new year we may well be laughing and jolly.

The way the Greens were talking we may well have had a one child policy adopted in this country!

We were really looking at being a mini China. Their students simply flood the tertiary sector.

why don’t we get more Japanese??

Their creativity is amazing, more so than the dormant Chinese who never communicate and scurry around like lil mices in my dormitory tryin to hide in their hole in the wall

I just found out today, Pacman was inspired by a Japanese who saw a pizza with a slice missing. Just awesome.

That’s the kind of initiative we need in this country. Not controlled nervous secretive mice invading us.
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November 18, 2008 5:22pm
PhilBest

mudmum, do you regard it as acceptable that NZ has the most unaffordable housing in the world along with Ireland and Spain? When NZ is just 1.6% urbanised?

Our ratio of average property value to average income, is 6.3.

In Germany, which is 15% urbanised, that ratio is 3.0.

It is not just that Germans earn a whole lot more than us, it is that they have a development framework that means that land does NOT jump in value thirtyfold when it is “rezoned” for housing.

The only obstacles to thirty grand sections in Wellington, Auckland, and Christchurch, are political ones.

And do you think that abominable old dumps in semi-slum areas would cost a young hardworking first home buyer 300 grand plus if sections on the edge of town cost 30 grand instead of 180 grand? Would the abominable old dump still be worth 30 grand for the house and 270 grand for the section it is on?

Why are young first home buyers not marching on Wellington over this?

Then there are the economic consequences we now are facing, of having overpriced housing and being overexposed to debt. It is a big mistake to say that we have been through this sort of thing before. We have not. It is a recent phenomenon, driven by Green mania and conservation mania; and socialist “King Canute” style economic mismanagement. But we just do not get the connection with economic outcomes.

I agree that John Key probably is fiscally astute, but our media is like the biggest obstacle faced by fiscally astute people. I surmise that John Key is fully aware that the demonisation of Roger Douglas is unfair, but he runs with it for political, media-agenda-driven ends. Good luck to him actually trying to make a difference to the NZ economy when he can only tinker with things a few percent here and a few percent there.

People who understand that things are as bad as they are still put on a positive face in our day to day business dealings, but we plan wisely. The real tragic stories occur with the people who know nothing, who get overstretched mortgages because they were desperate to own a home and prices went up faster than they could save money. I have no sympathy with the speculators who bought homes not to live in. They deserve to be wiped out now.
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November 18, 2008 6:06pm
PhilBest

bharmer, I suspect that the only reason that Swiss style democracy doesn’t spread, is that politicians around the rest of the world don’t dare to ever offer the option to their people.

That is, among other things, the power to raise binding referenda on any issue.
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November 18, 2008 6:14pm
freethinker

PhilBest (3543) Vote: 0 1 Says:
November 18th, 2008 at 3:46 pm

Phil I read recently that the value of CDOs outstanding was estimated at 35 times the totlal world GNP, so even allowing for the fact that such future contracts effectively cancel each other out the collateral damage will still impact those on the losing side of the contract. As futures contracts normally have a settlement date I do wonder what effect this will have. I also wonder what effect the non re investment of the carry trade – particularly Japans with NZ will have on our currency & economoy if only 10% is re invested as seems to be the case currently.
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November 18, 2008 6:30pm
freethinker

Bharmer – BCIR would in fact be a pragmatic way to rectify the serious flaws in our political process allowing MMP to stay as its flaws could be rectified by referenda and such decisions would be unappealable in a legal sense and reversed only by another referendum. A cheap & quick way to fix a serious problem but perhaps a pilot scheme would be sensible to get practical experience so applying it to say Coucil or DHB elections could be a suitable testbed.
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November 18, 2008 6:36pm
Rex Widerstrom

Portia: Bahahahaaha!! Made my day. Thanks 🙂
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November 18, 2008 7:46pm
lloydois

Why in the f**k would you want to raise binding referenda on any issue? Unless you are completely stupid it’s a recipe for the destruction of democracy.
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November 18, 2008 8:03pm
Rex Widerstrom

lloydois: Let’s assume that an adequate and balanced education campaign precedes such a referendum. Putting aside, then, legitimate concerns about whether the voters would have sufficient information on which to reach a sensible conclusion, how can you justify that particular piece of hyperbole?

Or are you here to tell us that you believe, say, Sue Bradford, Alamein Koopu, Ron Mark and Ben Couch (all of whom are or were MPs) are better informed and and better able to judge what’s best for NZers than are NZers themselves?
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November 18, 2008 9:15pm
Steve

Economic Literacy posted at 7.16pm.
Where are the trolls?.
Deleting files and folders on the 9th floor.
Remove the HDD and you are in trouble.
See the HDD has everything, delete just means unseen.
Format means unseen, just write over.
One day we will see just how corrupt certain people are.
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November 18, 2008 9:22pm
lloydois

Rex, I suspect there was a completely unbalanced education campaign happening in the Oz media. The biggest selling newspapers, the Daily Telegraph in Sydney and Herald Sun in Melbourne along with the ‘national’ daily The Australian have relentlessly promoted an anti global warming stance.

So I can only put it down to the Australian electorate’s ‘innate good sense’. Combine it with a bit of lived experience. Worked a treat.
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November 18, 2008 9:29pm
lloydois

And no. It’s completely dumb to expect a Government to ‘govern’ according to polls. It’s why we have ‘terms’ fixed or otherwise. Otherwise we would degenerate into a tabloid lead swill.

Not a happy prospect and a total waste of resources. It’s bad aenough that Governmnets have to be in campaign mode almost from day 1.

A bit like the 24 hour news cycle……almost guaranteed to dumb you down.
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November 18, 2008 9:33pm
Glutaemus Maximus

Having thought about this a lot:

Obvious that the artificially high Housing Prices have been manipulated upwards by one of the few People in the Country

with the very most to gain.

It is all Helen Clarks fault!

And she poisoned the Planet with her speeding BMW.
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November 18, 2008 9:46pm

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