The latest electoral pendulum

I blogged my informal electoral pendulum a few months back. It calculates on a standard swing what seats would fall to National based on the lead they have in the polls on the electorate vote.

Only One News Colmar Brunton publish results for the electorate vote, and yesterday’s poll gave us National 52% and Labour 35% on the electorate vote.

Now the swing never ever is standard, so these are not predictions. Just a scenario of what will happen if there was a standard swing with National 17% more than Labour on the electorate vote.

Now the pendulum has:

1. Taupo -2.6%
2. Rotorua -1.1%
3. Otaki 0.9%
4. Hamilton West 3.2%
5. West Coast-Tasman 4.1%
6. Palmerston North 13.2%
7. Auckland Central 14.1%
8. New Plymouth 14.8%
9. Waimakariri 16.6%
10. Port Hills 17.2%
11. Wellington Central 17.6%
12. Maungakiekie 22.2%
13. Hutt South 24.6%
14. Waitakere 25.8%
15. Mana 26.6%
16. Rimutaka 28.8%
17. Dunedin North 29.2%

Again this does not take into account individual impacts in electorates. The retirements of incumbents in Maungakiekie and Rimutaka may make them more competitive. And Clayton Cosgrove is generally regarded as more popular locally than his party.

If the nine seats above do all fall, along with two more Maori seats to the Maori Party that would reduce Labour to just 20 out fo 70 electorates.