General Debate 6 October 2008

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Razorlight

Another rogue poll last night I see.
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October 6, 2008 8:17am
democracymum

Great interview this morning with Paul Holmes by John Key – he was passionate and articulate announcing new policy.His comments surrounding the economy both domestically and overseas were authoritative and very interesting.

Helen was none of the above.
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October 6, 2008 8:24am
toby1845

Toughening up on parole, and making life mean life.

There’s gotta be another 2-3% in that.

I feel another rogue poll coming up.
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October 6, 2008 8:29am
Ross Miller

Yep … from memory this is the 11th ‘rogue’ poll in the last two months.

Clearly the polling industry have much to answer for.

I hear that Labour is commissioning their own poll which will restrict itself to identified Labour voters. Further understand they expect the result will show them as leading with about 60% support.
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October 6, 2008 8:31am
Neil

Quite a indicative poll last night. Not the isolated poll,rather the fact that the trend continues.
National over or very near that 50% level with Labor slipping to the early 30’s and the Greens bobbling around as Labor supporters don’t know what to do. I see many Labor supporters not voting
This election is National’s to lose. Wednesday will be a “key” day with their taxation policy. With the cupboards bare and business conditions looking bad maybe it is time for Keynesian stimulation.Infrastructure spending is an important matter. Generational debt is worth considering, people in the future will get use of it.
Further govt spending tightening is not the answer, witness the 1920’s-30’s where they came out with measures that damaged the country.
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October 6, 2008 8:34am
petal

Clark got a free pass on Breakfast this morning. Paul mauls Key and Pippa has a cuppa with Hel.
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October 6, 2008 8:34am
Glutaemus Maximus

Will EFA 11 have a plan to ban any polls?

Think they missed that out on EFA !.

Bugga
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October 6, 2008 8:38am
expat

The commies calling in all their favours with the pinko press
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October 6, 2008 8:38am
stephen

Helen hasn’t really done anything in the past week though has she?
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October 6, 2008 8:38am
Buggerlugs

When will someone in the MSM flat out call a Labour Minister a liar for their fabricated answers to questions?
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October 6, 2008 8:41am
Bob

While the polls are hugely favouring National I do wonder if they are truly representative. I understand they are all telephone polls. That would apply only to landlines. There are now large numbers of people who have only a cell phone and a number of people with no phone at all especially some of the lower income Maori and Pacific Islanders. I don’t expect a more representative poll to make a huge difference but would probably show a smaller gap between the parties.
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October 6, 2008 8:41am
expat

Arse.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10535937

Its a global recession and winter is starting in the norven hemisphere. The grass wont be much greener in NZ.

And I belive this is natural selection at work

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10535933
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October 6, 2008 8:44am
expat

Bob – the people that dont have a landline are unlikely to get heir arses down to a polling station when they could be txting thr m8s aye?!
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October 6, 2008 8:49am
goodgod

Bob – I recently took a call via cellphone to take part in a product survey. Cellphone polls are on the way.

In other news:

What the fuck is up with Dave Pizzini?

He’s wailing because people think it was wrong of him to try to sway public opinion against Virender Singh and then said that all opinions should be confined to a court. Cake and eat it too, Mr. Pizzini?

So after Garth McVicar called bullshit on him, and one of his old police buddies, he calls up the old buddy and tells him “secrets”. Old buddy then retracts published statements, saying he has new info and “…isn’t going to tell you and it will just have to go to court…”.

Note to police: when garnering public support, leave out surly superior manner, whinning, and general churlishness.

Over the last few years the Police have acted with such extreme prejudice in politically correct cases that no one will believe the police old boys club with a simple “we know best”. As in all the other cases, if it smells like a fit up, it probably is. (Anyone heard news regarding Len Richards lately? No? hmmm.)

Lastly lets look at the plain facts before Dave “handwringer” Pizzini began dancing on the head of a pin.

Guy goes in to rob shop. Attacks shop owner. Owner and another stabbed by robber.

There should be no concern whatsoever of the offenders “rights.” He came to KILL. Dave Pizzini needs to think about that, because he is prejudicing the public in favour of a man who wanted to kill a shop owner going about his lawful business. As for recommending that the stabbed men should have just called the cops… What planet is the fool living on? It’s plain disgusting.

http://tinyurl.com/47949o
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October 6, 2008 9:13am
Hunter

Despite the polls showing that National is clearly ahead, regardless of discussion about methodology, it is still possible for us to get a Labour led government. A number of things have to happen for that to occur I admit, Winston First has to do another houdini act, National has to fail to cross the 50% threshhold, and Helen has to broker a deal with vitually every minor party. Now while it is unlikely for all those stars to line up at the same time, it is possible. If we get a Labour led government in the face of an overwhelming signal from voters that they want a change MMP in NZ will be tainted forever.

So long as minor political parties think this sort of outcome is acceptable just so that they can taste the baubles of power it means that actually we no longer elect our Government. Instead this is decided by a small group of interested parties in closed door negotiations after the election based on all sorts of dubious deals made that are never made public.

That makes the concept of democracy a bit of a joke. But I think the NZ public are already expressing their frustration about this and that is why National are flurting with the 50% mark. Voters dont want to leave it up to the smaller parties to decide, and there is only one way for them to avoid that, vote for the party you want to lead the Government and get them over the 50% mark.
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October 6, 2008 9:14am
expat

I note that the coppers MT Welllington station refused to look at, at all, the car theft ring that was reported in the weekend press. Perhaps there is a reason for this, wheres the Police spokesperson on ths one?
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October 6, 2008 9:17am
Gooner

Bob, do you think it’s acceptable that after nine years of a social democratic government, record growth, record tax takes and government surpluses that Pacific Islanders and Maori still cannot afford telephones?
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October 6, 2008 9:38am
PhilBest

“Expat” at 8.44, you linked to an article but didn’t give us a quick precis before commenting on it. I think you have a very important point, and we should be discussing it.

Kiwis are apparently returning home from London because of the contraction that is taking place in the financial sector and the resulting layoffs. Expat makes the point that the grass will not be greener here.

You are right, expat.

All the signs are in place that NZ has generated its OWN domestic crash irrespective of what happens in the USA. The evidence continues to accumulate that the crashes being experienced in the UK and Ireland and Europe are actually worse than in the US, and the common deciding factor is the extent to which real estate has been overvalued relative to average income. And guess what: NZ is the worst in the world in that respect.
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October 6, 2008 9:47am
PhilBest

In spite of all the moralising coming from all around the world about “Wall Street greed” and so on, this problem is just as bad or worse elsewhere.

DEMOGRAPHIA: “England’s Mortgage Bailout”

http://demographia.blogspot.com/2008/09/englands-mortgage-bailout-high-cost-of.htm

“The Daily Telegraph in London reports that the government bailout of mortgage lender Bradford and Bingley will raise the exposure of the United Kingdom taxpayers to £150 billion (nearly $300 billion). Overall, this is approximately $5,000 per capita, considerably more than the $3,000 per capita United States taxpayer exposure likely after the nearly $800 billion in bailouts, including AIG and the proposed congressional package.

It may be surprising that the cost in the UK would be competitive, much less higher than in the United States, until the causes are analyzed. Surely, US lenders appear to have been more profligate with their (and now taxpayers’) money than UK lenders. Yet the bloated prices have started to fall, as prices begin to return to reality.

Lending profligacy was only the start of the problem. Blame town planning, or what is called “smart growth” in the United States…….

“……..In these markets, land use policies limited the amount of land available for development, interfered with the competitive pricing of land for development and otherwise increased costs. The smart growth markets, while accounting for only 30 percent of the population, represented more than 85 percent of the housing price increases. Without smart growth, the financial crisis might well have been handled in the United States without government intervention.

The British are not so lucky. Because of the Town and Country Planning Act of 1947 and its subsequent administration, the entire nation is victimized by smart growth style policies that simply do not allow enough houses to be built. Last year, British house construction fell to the lowest level since World War II, and has dropped 30 percent just since 1992. This is barely one-third of the level required in the nation……”

Wall Street Journal Editorial:

“Bailing Out Europe”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122298413104999705.html

“This week’s cover of Der Spiegel shows the Statue of Liberty’s torch extinguished, under a headline “The Price of Hubris.” Even as the magazine published this latest eulogy for American power, the Continent turned out to have more banking problems than Wall Street. Now we’ll see if “Europe,” in the governing rather than geographical sense, can handle a genuine financial panic.

European governments this week rushed to rescue several of their overleveraged financial institutions as the money markets seized up. The euro’s fall of about 5% against the dollar in recent days shows that investors are more worried about the Old Continent than the New World. Europe is learning that financial turmoil is no zero-sum game. America’s loss isn’t Europe’s or anyone else’s gain. The credit mania was a global phenomenon and its aftermath requires global responses….”

HA.

“…….The most dramatic intervention occurred in Ireland, where the government guaranteed for two years all deposits, bonds, senior debt and lower Tier-II debt of six Irish financial institutions. British depositors are already flocking to the Irish banks to take advantage of the unlimited guarantee, putting pressure on London to do something similar. This is one of the drawbacks of separate national responses — it creates “depository arbitrage” and gives some banks a competitive advantage.

If successful in staving off a panic, the Irish move may cost nothing or even bring in some cash from the fees banks must pay for the guarantee. But total taxpayer exposure is €450 billion to €500 billion, or well more than twice Ireland’s GDP…..”

OOUUCH.

INTERESTING…….NZ shares with Ireland and England, “Smart Growth” (Dumb Strangulation would be a better description)
policies that have led to the greatest disparities in the world between our incomes and our property values. So more than likely we are in our own domestically-originated crunch as well as the effects of the international crisis.

Here is Hugh Pavletich; “Housing: Taking a Bubble Bath To Reality”

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0809/S00584.htm

“……In New Zealand, with a population of just 4.3 million, where around 32 finance companies have failed to date, “planner developers” are experiencing some considerable difficulties, as illustrated with “Kensington Park”, “$450m housing project crashes – 22 Sep 2008 – NZ Herald: New Zealand National news”. The developers letters to “owners” and “contractors” make for those not familiar with “development reality” – instructive reading as well. Understandably New Zealand is in recession as outlined within the UK Financial Times article “New Zealand falls into first recession in 10 years” . This has been a “phony boom” – fueled in large measure by a housing bubble…..

“……..The “bubble problem” of the United States is not as severe as it is in most other Anglo countries – as illustrated by this year’s 4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey – with Canada’s overall Median Multiple 3.1; United States 3.6; Republic of Ireland 4.7; United Kingdom 5.5; Australia and New Zealand 6.3………

“…….Policymakers in both Australia and New Zealand chose instead to ignore the significance of “housing bubbles”, allowing these bubbles to further inflate – and collapse. They will therefore need to be prepared to deal with the consequences – in social, political and economic terms going forward.

They will soon learn too – that Governments and Reserve Banks do not have the capacity to arrest the necessary adjustments of these housing bubbles.

The only questions policymakers will need to ask themselves going forward is – (a) to what extent are they going to dither compounding problems and allow the residential construction sectors to collapse – and (b) – when do they intend to allow for the supply of affordable land on the urban fringes, coupled with appropriate debt financing of infrastructure, so that housing at or below three times annual household income can be built…….”

We are in a distressing “bind”. Our governments do not WANT us to have affordable housing because it is the inflation in property values that is making the long-term-property-owning majority FEEL “wealthy” and is giving them collateral for credit-based spending. How can the reality be communicated to people? The Achilles heel of Democracy is apparent, we are “dumbing” ourselves to destruction.
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October 6, 2008 9:48am
NeillR

Expat – they’re too busy rounding up parents who are smacking their kids.

In other news, Helen Clark says “Dr Cullen has been careful with money”. Newsflash, no he hasn’t, he’s spent like a friggen drunk at the bar. He’s stupidly put as many people on welfare as he could during the past nine years, while simultaneously allowing household debt to climb out of control, only to see his surpluses evaporate at the first sign of a downturn. Any button pushing monkey could have done that, but it takes a bit more intelligence to ensure that any cyclical downturn can be covered without killing the productive sector.
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October 6, 2008 9:53am
s.russell

Bob –
On another thread someone (I can’t recall who) reported research on the question of cellphones and opinion polls. The result of the research was that the cellphone only people (and I am one of them) had the same spread of political views as the rest of the population.
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October 6, 2008 10:11am
jafapete

s.russell, Done a few posts on that topic myself, which DPF picked up on, most recently on curia blog. (Thanks DPF.) Even in the USA, the difference that excluding cellphone-only respondents makes is only in the order of a couple of percent. This takes into account the differences between cell-only young people and landline young people, which are surprisingly great. (As the probably would be here.) Next month it might make a little diiference to the US result, in favour of Obama, and here, in favour of Labour. But here it is unlikely to make more than a small dent in the “gap”. Which, to be fair, is all that bob says.

On the US election, the latest from the political scientists is that the ‘Bradley Effect’ is pretty much a thing of the past, so don’t expect any significant hidden racist support for McCain.
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October 6, 2008 10:27am
PhilBest

I said this on the next thread over, “Seen on Wall Street”:
“……I posted a much lengthier analysis and excerpts from articles on the next thread over, “general debate”, if you’re interested…..”

SORRY, it hasn’t appeared yet due to links and moderation……..
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October 6, 2008 10:37am
Glutaemus Maximus

Suspicious:

Redbaiter has gone to ground.

A definite 9th Floor troll, with a brief to discredit the Right wing blogs!

Why am I so sure?

Never appears on WOBH, and for someone as BNP as it, a glaring omission.

Never enquired about the Blogmobile, and how to meet up etc.

Poor repressed homosexual. Boy or Girl?

Can’t decide but a nasty invidious piece of work.
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October 6, 2008 11:42am
big bruv

Did I miss something over the last few days, has Phool been banned?

Either way it is great to be able to have a rational discussion without his mindless trolling.
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October 6, 2008 1:58pm
Glutaemus Maximus

I am missing him already!

Not.
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October 6, 2008 2:02pm
Grant Michael McKenna

Grant channels the spirit of Phil:

bazillion is the highest number
that is there is
I count to a bazillion and *one*
for *fun*!!!
eh *visionary*
for deed and teaches theory to end all theories is the ultimate theory
phwhoar!!1!!!
what you huh….
don’t know, but what you do, not utter
it be i rant too much, i rave too much water or paper started to fast dance as
key rail whoar
eh eh
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October 6, 2008 2:17pm
wreck1080

New TOPIC : Vodafone

The bastards are now going to charge for receiving bills. $1.50 per bill. The arrogance is unbelievable.

Admittedly, they allow you to cancel bills completely – BUT, so many people out their need their bills for tax purposes.

Vodafone are reprehensible in their eeking out of revenue gains.
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October 6, 2008 2:27pm
Buggerlugs

anyone seen the Listener? http://adamsmith.wordpress.com/2008/10/06/7856/
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October 6, 2008 8:53pm

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