General Debate 20 October 2008

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expat

Anyone else spot this in the weekend dom?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4732397a13.html

right at bottom.

Oh, and nice 1 cent plus fall by the kiwiaud over the weekend…
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October 20, 2008 8:53am
Glutaemus Maximus

Any leftie up for a wager?

$500 says that National will end up with over 55% of the Party vote.

or $500 says that National will form the next Government along with ACT and the MP

or $500 says that Helen Clark will be finished as Labour Leader by Jan 1.

All three or one leftie per option.

DPF to ajudicate, and collect money?
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October 20, 2008 8:57am
Neil

GM I just hope that National does get that 55percent but I think you are showing your National colours(Like me).
Polls are volatile, I have heard that the trend is the name. National over the last year around the 48-50 percent level. The clear indicator poll is the one three months before the election, where I think National just achieved the 50 percent level.
I feel that most people have made their minds up, many have had a stomach full of HC and Labor. What I find strange, is the absolute unwillingness of the msm to mention the all pervasive anti-HC mood in the community. Talk of Jenny Shipley in 99 as unpopular pales into insignificance.
Helen knows that she is unpopular with the unscripted angry and vicious looks she provides for the media.
National+ACT+UF equals about 65 seats out of 124.
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October 20, 2008 9:07am
labrator

Any thoughts on compulsory surveys for statistics NZ? DPF was quite keen on infos being launched but that data seems to come at some considerable, un-recompensed, burden for 22,000 individuals and a number more businesses.
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October 20, 2008 9:09am
Glutaemus Maximus

Neil,

What I am absolutely sure of, is that there will be a vote for change!

Everyone I have spoken to, and throughout the country are very motivated to vote her out!

HC having more MSM time is actually working in our favour.

Happy Times!
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October 20, 2008 9:13am
expat

seems like an imposition labrator.
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October 20, 2008 9:14am
Chthoniid

My main issue with the polls is they don’t (generally) report the number of undecideds. These often represent about the 3rd largest ‘popular choice’ in polls.

This means that a swing of the undecideds to either camp can make or break an election. (I suspect this helped account for the closing of the gap with National last election). I think Labour is playing to this group with the ‘don’t switch horses in a crisis’ gambit. The pessimist in me says this has a decent chance of working.
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October 20, 2008 9:18am
siobhan

Glutaemus Maximus said “Everyone I have spoken to, and throughout the country are very motivated to vote her out!”

As much as I am hopeful of change can I ask you – on your travels have you spent much time in South Auckland? If so are you getting the same indications?

Also, what impression are you getting from upper middle class housewives who in 2005 thought they were doing the country a favour voting for Helen or the Greens while their husbands voted National.
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October 20, 2008 9:25am
NeillR

Does anyone actually care who the Greens will decide to go with?
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October 20, 2008 9:29am
PhilBest

I just posted THIS on the earlier thread about the TGIF article, I am cross that this angle is being overlooked:

PhilBest (3103) 0 0 Says:
October 20th, 2008 at 9:28 am

Rex Widerstrom (1436) Vote: Add rating 12 Subtract rating2 Says:
October 19th, 2008 at 4:33 pm

“Much as it chokes me to say so, I’m in (very) partial agreement with mickysavage when s/he says:

“The problem for the right is that this story was overcooked from the start……….”

Rex, you are letting your feelings about “Christian fundamentalists” get in the way of your judgement again.

Alex Masterley, in the first comment on this thread, raises the point made by Wishart in the TGIF article, about Labour’s “cash in the hat” fundraising evening methods, but from then on it is completely ignored.

Rex, let me ask you this (and I made this point way back on Saturday). If the NATS had passed a whole lot of laws about funding of political parties designed to shut out LABOUR’s traditional sources, and had engaged in endless rhetoric about toxic supporters of LABOUR “stealing elections” with “bags of cash” and “money pouring into coffers”; and had then found THEMSELVES hamstrung by their own legislation; and had proceeded to hold “fundraising evenings” where anonymous cash in wads was deposited in a hat, totalling well into SIX FIGURES on some evenings; and imagine if some reporter for the DomPost or TV1 had spotted someone who looked like a member of a christian fundamentalist sect at that fundraising evening;

WOULD YOU SERIOUSLY TRY TO KID ME NOW, THAT THAT WOULD NOT GUARANTEE AN ELECTION LOSS FOR NATIONAL? That it would not be all over the front pages and the airwaves wall-to-wall from now until the election?

BAH.

Rex, you are the epitome of all the the reasons why the NZ “centre right” is an emasculated force when it comes to presenting any sort of obstacle to the socialist takeover of our country.
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October 20, 2008 9:31am
expat

siobhan said – Also, what impression are you getting from upper middle class housewives who in 2005 thought they were doing the country a favour voting for Helen or the Greens while their husbands voted National.

That should read middle class housewives – who felt upper middle class as their house value had appreciated and the felt their social status had as well.

A/ They’ll be feeling a bit sick as they look at rolling the mortgage over and contemplate not moving house again for 10 years and wondering if it really is that gentrified in the street…
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October 20, 2008 9:32am
dad4justice

With the election looming and NZ’s net overseas debt rising to over $160b, and, in the year to August, imports increased from $40b to $46b, surely it’s time for economic protection measures to be implemented so a voter can have confidence in a stable and healthy kiwi future? Local manufacturing and production is declining and we are becoming increasingly reliant on imports which is further adding to our borrowing blues. Oh well, as I have said before, why vote for any of the riff raff that got us into this mess!

Would a REAL LEADER – please stand up. Yeah right!!
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October 20, 2008 9:34am
philu

this is very funny..!..(and yep..!..mccain is there too..)

http://whoar.co.nz/2008/obama-does-funnytodays-must-watch/

“..fox news accused me of fathering two african-american children..in wedlock..”

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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October 20, 2008 9:36am
Glutaemus Maximus

South Auckland won’t bite the hand that feeds it, but the electorate there are solid.

The Ladies will be backing the most appealing potential PM.

There is a level of discontent that the polls can’t measure.

All the voters wanting change will vote.

The standard Leftie voter may not bother voting if it rains hard?
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October 20, 2008 9:37am
dad4justice

Good morning phool. I was concerned that you would not wake from your drug induced coma.
Kind regards
d4j
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October 20, 2008 9:38am
expat

fight fight fight.

and your witty riposte is h-what phil?
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October 20, 2008 9:40am
philu

btw..what happened to that epoch-shattering revelation from wishart..?

..wasn’t it due last friday..?

..did i miss something..?

(and hey..!..wasn’t cullen good on agenda..?..(watch it online if you missed it..)

sorta really showed up englishs’ shabby outing the previous week in the same forum..eh..?

i’m gonna bang something out about it later..

..’a tale of two finance ministers’ should ‘do’ as a working title..?..eh..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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October 20, 2008 9:42am
expat

your not going to stand for that kind of disrespect from 4dj are you phil?
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October 20, 2008 9:43am
Murray

Well if you got your head out of your ass you would have observed labour selling citizenships for bribes phuckwit.
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October 20, 2008 9:44am
dad4justice

Phool -Wishart just exposed the fact that any shady character can buy a kiwi passport and your drop kick tree hugging mates want to adopt the Chinese one child policy. You should of stayed in your coma. I got four kids greenie snakes~!!
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October 20, 2008 9:46am
expat

mmmm, i think youve been disrespected again phil.

you really need to do something about this.
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October 20, 2008 9:46am
double d

Scene: press conference – hush filled atmosphere with journos sitting pens poised (ok – finger about to hit record button)
Heads all turn left and watch as the leaders of the Green party silently shuffle on to stage.
JF: After weeks of analysing policy from Labour and National, we can now announce that we are prepared to support one party in forming a governemnt come November.
The sounds of paper shuffling as JF pauses and looks up, eyeballing each member of the press gallery daring, any to face her down.
That party is …………

Lets all have a guess?
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October 20, 2008 9:46am
philu

oh..!..was that the story of that chinese guy who sprayed money all around the national party..?

hardly ‘epoch-shattering’..eh..?

more..’scratch arse a couple of times..and yawn..’..eh..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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October 20, 2008 9:47am
expat

a normal lead up to the working week for you then phil? >>scratch arse a couple of times..and yawn.
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October 20, 2008 9:49am
dad4justice

Phool – how can you defend Klark’s government? Many of her Ministers should be behind bars. I would love to be their warden.
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October 20, 2008 9:50am
Pita

Did anyone watch tvone’s “Sunday” last night and hear the Work and Income CEO say she failed to understand why a reference number (On a bogus birth certificate) would be better to determine fraud than investigating a name and address?

How much do we pay these people?
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October 20, 2008 9:58am
philu

“..mmmm, i think youve been disrespected again phil.

you really need to do something about this..”

how can i be grumpy on a day like today..?

the sun is shining..

..i’ve just had a bucket of belly-laughs from that obama clip i pointed you at..

..the global capitalist banking system has eaten itself..

..banks are beiing ‘nationalised’ faster than you can say merrill lynch..

..and we are ushering in a new age of communalism..

..obama will be the next president of america..

..gordon brown has risen as a superman..from the ashes of his own reputation..

..the maori party won’t go with national..

..helen clark will be the prime minister this xmas..

..greens will be cabinet ministers..

..the freemarket/rightwingers have been well and truly vanquished/tossed in historys’ rubbish bin..

..(funny thing is..a lot of those rightwingers haven’t realised that yet..eh..?..

..poor luvvies..!..they’ll be in shock..when the penny finally drops..eh..?)

..rampant state/country-level socialism is breaking out..

..and karl marx is laughing..up in heaven..

..(and a fantail just alighted on the branch outside my window..)

..what are the dyspeptic-emmissions of a couple of ‘yesterdays’ men’..

..next to all that..?

..eh..?

..phil(whoar.co.nz)
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October 20, 2008 10:01am
DamnedAngry

Philu’s a fucking liar!!! It was PAUL who scratched his arse after a weekend of man-hugging!
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October 20, 2008 10:06am
dad4justice

“..and karl marx is laughing..up in heaven..”

Phool ; more like screaming from the pits of hell !!
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October 20, 2008 10:13am
getstaffed

Cafe manager in Wellington told me this morning that of her 15 staff (aged 19 thru 25), NONE have enroled to vote despite her constant reminders and offers of time off to get it sorted. Even the cafe owner (aged 27) has not bothered to enrol. I’m gobsmacked.
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October 20, 2008 10:33am
WraithX

getstaffed: they would probably vote green anyway – because they will still think it means voting for legal pot and have no idea about the actual policies of the party. So better that they not vote. I hope all the greens sleep in that day and forget to vote.
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October 20, 2008 10:59am
WraithX

Philu: the banking system is failing because the American banks were forced to give mortgages to poor people who couldn’t afford them – forced by socialists (the Democrats). The fact is, the collapse is due to interference from govt (the very thing you advocate) and not a free market.
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October 20, 2008 11:01am
PhilBest

Phool is in a hurry to join Karl Marx in hell
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October 20, 2008 12:13pm
Spam

Greens opt for Labour in coalition deal

Now THERE’S a surprise!

Interesting that they appear to be ruling-out even confidence & supply with the Nats.
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October 20, 2008 12:54pm
WraithX

Spam: no surprises there I guess. While I doubt it will affect their polling, I sure hope it does!
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October 20, 2008 1:04pm
Portia

I’d felt a sense of disquiet all weekend. I couldn’t quite put my finger on what it was. Until now…

… it was because Philu was AWOL.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but… I really missed the inane banter between Philu and the Kiwiblog loyalists. It drives me spare most of the time, but it also makes me smile occasionally. A bit like Jack and Vera – there’s a certain harmony in the disharmony.

I feel much better now that things are back to normal.
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October 20, 2008 1:05pm
adc

what’s with all the blog space given to iPredict?

Does DPF think that iPredict predictions will be any more accurate than any other? Or is it just cos he has money in it?

Personally I think there are a few orders of magnitude too few punters on that system to provide any meaningful stats. How many people are on there actively trading? What’s the daily trade stats?
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October 20, 2008 2:00pm
Rex Widerstrom

PhilBest says:

Rex, you are letting your feelings about “Christian fundamentalists” get in the way of your judgement again.

Phil, the only time Christian fundamentalists vex me is when they try to impose their view of what’s moral and correct upon me. This isn’t one of those times and, to the best of my knowledge, Ian Wishart isn’t one of those types of fundamentalists.

Rex, let me ask you this.. If the NATS had passed a whole lot of laws about funding of political parties… and had proceeded to hold “fundraising evenings” where anonymous cash in wads was deposited in a hat, totalling well into SIX FIGURES on some evenings…

Very good point. So why then did Wishart hype the other aspect of the story – the immigration status of one person, who apears to have been trying to buy political favours from both left and right? It’s too thin, there’s too much scope for people to say “oh, but National took his money too”, there’s no clear cut scandal.

Which was kind of my point, actually. Wishart over-hyped this as “the scandal to end all scandals” when it’s really just another example of how dirty politics has become. And not a very good one at that. He’d have been better, in my opinion as a former journalist, editor and PR consultant, to have run with the “hypocrites who passed the EFA collect thousands in cash each night” line, and actually hyped it less.

Rex, you are the epitome of all the the reasons why the NZ “centre right” is an emasculated force when it comes to presenting any sort of obstacle to the socialist takeover of our country.

No Phil, I’m some who’s been an editor and been in politics and knows that if you run round like Chicken Little every time you have a moderately good lead then when you finally discover the sky is falling, no one will pay any attention. And in the meantime everything else you uncover can be scoffed at based on your tendency to hyperbole.
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October 20, 2008 2:19pm
freethinker

labrator (369) Vote: 2 0 Says:
October 20th, 2008 at 9:09 am

I opted out this survey 10 years ago when I simply refused to complete it and when the door knocker made similar threats I explained that forced answers may be complete tripe – she gave up and has not bothered me since. Similarly with the census – no problems with the legimate stuff but the intrusive stuff was left blank – no response from the census office – still better incomplete but accurate answers than completely misleading answers. No govt will ever agree to pay for info – user pays is a one way street – but you do have the option of saying the first thing that comes into your head and believing it to be true at the time, thus decisions based on shite info and we get to blame the buggers who dreamed up the system.
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October 20, 2008 2:31pm
PhilBest

Rex, Rex, Rex:

Something that you can’t disagree would have BROUGHT DOWN a National government, is merely a “moderately good lead” when Wishart digs it up about Labour?

So the guy donated $5000 to some of the Nats: and everyone knows it. He COULD have donated six figures to Labour and NO-ONE knows it.

And it was not a National Cabinet Minister who has over-ridden the Immigration Department’s very valid reasons for NOT granting a citizenship.

And all you can say is, that the only real investigative journalist in NZ deserves to get scoffed at for his hyperbole? And it is quite OK for this story NOT to get any legs in the “mainstream” media?

MATE, we’re stuffed in this country. This is how the “Born To Rule Arrogance Party of Government” is made. That Party gets a free ride, the other major one will only ever get to make ONE “mistake” and its out on its ear. This is how a nation slides down into the third world.

What WOULD be “the sky falling”, Rex? A politically ordered assassination?

By the way, I think the hype from Wishart is irrelevant to the way the MSM handles any issue he uncovers. Do you believe that if he DIDN’T hype things like this, the MSM would actually be MORE interested?

BAH.
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October 20, 2008 3:22pm
Glutaemus Maximus

Hmmm. No Leftie Takers on my open wager.

I think that the offer is actually skewed in Labours favour if you believe Helen Clarks Rhetoric.

Does it help if I lift each category to $1000 and you leftie lot can syndicate the risk?

I just want the money. It’s a bit like trading in Tranzrail shares!

By the way I made fortune in the RWC. Great odds on SA to win and England to be Finalists.

I made just under $5k.

Nicey. The best fun was on the AB’s not being Finalists.
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October 20, 2008 3:28pm
Rex Widerstrom

Phil, Phil, Phil 😀

I didn’t say National would be brought down by the same story. It’s a good story but Wishart sold it as though as soon as it became public it would rival all the other “…gates” we’ve seen recently. It doesn’t. There’s many problems that stop it being as earth-shattering as Wishart claims, not least of which is that even if we accept at face value that this Liu character bought his citizenship while warnings were ignored, National never got the chance to show it would have rejected him.

Not National’s fault, obviously, but the majority of people are so sick and tired of the corruption they see almost weekly they’re more than prepared to believe any politician would behave in a corrupt manner.

Thus I’m suggesting that if Wishart wanted to cause maximum damage to Labour (and I’m assuming that’s his motivation) then he should have zeroed in on the fact that Labour appears to be collecting substantial sums from people via “cash in a bucket” while trumpeting how “clean” political funding has become under the EFA. That reeks of hypocrisy and is a simpler narrative to sell to the public (and the MSM).

No, it’s not okay for this – and many other – stories not to get legs in the mainstream media. Never said it was… just said Wishart has sold it in a way that makes it easy to dismiss and that that’s a tactical error.

And finally, I agree this is how a “born to rule” arrogance develops, and people come to accept it. But unforunately I don’t think National would be out on it’s ear after one mistake. The bar has been set so low over the last decade or so that people would just shrug, say “what can you expect, they’re politicians” and keep queuing at the airport. And therein is the real tragedy – we no longer expect our politicians to live up to the most basic standards, let alone provide leadership.
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October 20, 2008 3:34pm
Rex Widerstrom

Meanwhile, talking of the MSM’s coverage, wonder if we’ll see this headline in NZ: We’re finished, says Labo(u)r.

Gone in WA. Going in NSW. Looking shaky in Queensland. Hammered in the NT and ACT. Hanging on by their fingernails in the UK… Someone will no doubt write a fascinating book on the wave that seems set to simultaneously sweep socialist governments out of power in the majority of Western democracies.
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October 20, 2008 3:57pm
redeye

Rex, you’re conveniently ignoring the feds in Aust. and hopefully the US. For mine it’s more to do with incumbent governments. I personally believe that any more than 2 terms is a corrupting influence.
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October 20, 2008 4:06pm
Rex Widerstrom

redeye: Aside from an upward blip in the past few days after moving to prop up the banks, Rudd’s popularity has been on a downward trajectory as Australians realise the rhetoric doesn’t match the action. But with Malcolm Turnbull acquitting himself very well as Liberal leader and Labor getting hammered in every state it’s not looking good for federal Labor either.

But they’re so far from an election it’s hard to predict, so I left them out. Agree that more than 2 terms is a corrupting influence – but more for the idividual politicians than governments per se. If Labour had used the opportunity of past elections to clean out the dead wood (rather than just the dead wood who’d fallen out of favour with the leader) I have no doubt they’d be looking better than they do at present.
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October 20, 2008 7:24pm
side show bob

I heard the old cow say she believed the polls were neck and neck, I always throught she had a fucking long neck.
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October 20, 2008 7:37pm
tknorriss

Just saw Owen Glenn on 60 minutes. Still seems pissed off with Labour. Nice timing to remind everyone what a nasty, ungrateful, vindictive bunch they are.
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October 20, 2008 7:59pm

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