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October 21, 2008 8:31am by David Farrar

A nice polling resource

Stuff has a nice graphical tracker of the party vote for the five public polls.

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Comment16

Election 2008
Polls
Stuff

Comments (16)

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expat

Whats your prediction for election nite David?

[DPF: My profession makes it unwise for me to make polling predictions publicly]
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October 21, 2008 8:47am
Murray

The sun will go down, votes will be counted and so called “experts” will talk a. shit b. how the result that is nothing like what they predicted prives how clever and right they are.

Helen Clark will claim victory because only people who believe in fairies would beleive than she has just been masacred in the voting.

The Greens will get back in on special votes event though they can’t win one single electorate seat and claim this gives them a mandate to tell everyone else what to do.

Approximately 2,523 TV’s will die horribly as hard core socialists see their of unlimited control over every disappear.

Fine holiday fun for the entire family. Recomend two bags of popcorn.
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October 21, 2008 9:10am
freethinker

If the polls are even reasonably accurate I am waking up to the nightmare of National not forming the next government and here is why. If Maori win only 6 electorate seats there is a likely overhang of 4 seats for a total of 124 MPs and whilst Tariana undoubtedly hates HC with a vengence she has historically consulted her electors on future policy ( and I have huge respect for her as a result – democracy in practice) and as polls indicate 75%of Maori favour Labour, short of National promising something extraordinary like repeal of the foreshore legislation she will be bound to follow their wishes. Abstaining on confidence & supply is possible but why would you do that if the effect was to keep Labour out of government against your electorates wishes and getting no power or influence. It is of course possible that National would poll 48% and Act through tactical voting retain Epsom with a 4+% partyvote but this doesn’t appear likely on current polls.This ignores Snakeoil Dunne and the possibility that the polls are inaccurate in the measure of support for Nat/Act and whilst I sincerely hope I am wrong it looks like the Annual Aussie holiday will become a fact finding mission.
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October 21, 2008 9:34am
Chthoniid

I’m not keen on counting any chickens before they hatch, without knowing how many undecideds are in those percentages. I wish the MSM would report the % of undecided as well.

If the undecideds remain the 3rd highest polling ‘party’ sic, their vote on the day may introduce a lot of unpredictability to the final count. If they don’t follow the trends, but flock to ‘the devil they know’, then the contest will be tighter.
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October 21, 2008 9:36am
first time caller

I think they need a 5% tracking line as that is all important.
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October 21, 2008 9:37am
expat

You reckon the labour party would fracture to get rid of the old crew and form a new progressive splinter more centre than centre left and would form a coalition with National under Key?
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October 21, 2008 9:40am
PinkGina

I absolutely agree with freethinker.

Forget Maori and if Labour narrows the gap, National are in big trouble
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October 21, 2008 10:02am
slightlyrighty

PinkGina, It is close but I do not see cause for concern. I’m picking that you will see a slight increase in support for National in the party vote and a decrease for support for Labour as we near the polling day.

Here’s why.

The greens have announced their intention to go with Labour. Left of centre Labour voters may vote green in the belief that this will give Labour a more viable co-alition partner. True centre voters, who are more likely to change their vote, will see thia announcement as a movement to the left away from the centre, and will look for a viable alternative.

Both will result in a drop of support for labour. If we have polls showing a swing towards the right closer to the polls, then some swing voters will follow the polls because some of the voting public simply want to back a winner.

In any case, I will be watching with interest on Nov 8
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October 21, 2008 10:19am
PinkGina

I hope you’re right slightlyrighty
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October 21, 2008 10:34am
mike12

I agree with righty, the greens making a big deal out of a forgone conclusion has not helped helen a bit.

Your average blue collar battler has a distinct dislike for bradford, locke and the other watermelons.
Watch Key now repeat over and over “a labour, green, NZ first govt……”
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October 21, 2008 10:44am
stephen

“Your average blue collar battler” probably likes their (esp the Greens’) ’employment’ policies though…
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October 21, 2008 10:53am
DamnedAngry

I strongly believe that deals are being done by National and the Maori Party…my money’s on them going with National, regardless of what their people may want. They’ll get concessions that will make it easier for Maori to swallow that ‘bitter’ pill.

Just to elaborate…Maori are most concerned about GREEN policy, which will see future Maori business initiatives curtailed should Labour return to power. A lot of Maori businesses involve sustainable resources so they would be feeling rather uncomfortable about the possibility of a stronger Labour/Green relationship. Not to mention the Green’s immigration policy which will take jobs away from Maori as well as Kiwi’s, and show me a Maori that isn’t PRO-Life!

They also know that in reality Labour have done little regarding settlments over the 9 years in power, and screwed them royally with the Foreshore & Seabed Act.

If you have Maori friends you need to be pointing out the many dangers of voting Labour/Greens, as this time they’ll not accept just being Labour’s bitch!
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October 21, 2008 11:16am
freethinker

Loss of support for the Greens is more helpful to Nats as under 5% = distribution to other parties proportinatly which favours the party with the most votes, so the best message for the Nats is tactical voting Electorate vote Nats, Party vote for Act
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October 21, 2008 11:18am
Duxton

My preferred options are:

1. National/Act

2. National

3. Labour/MP/Greens/NZF/JAP

If 1 and 2 don’t work out, 3 would be simply hilarious. Think of the stress…..HC would have straggly greying hair, terrible frown lines and wrinkles, a haggard turkey-like neck, and teeth falling apart within weeks.

Oh, hang on…..
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October 21, 2008 12:54pm
goodgod

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Have faith my little chickadees, or failing that, have a coffee! – Labour don’t have a shit-show of closing the gap when the only press they get from here on in is over their inherent corruption being exposed.

Greens are going to get thrashed, below 5% – no one wants smelly commies messing with their showers or watching them conceive their children. ta ta Greenies!

Soon as ACT team up with National, maori will sulk and go with no one. They’re just there to feather their own nests. That was clear from the afternoon the party was formed.

Undecided voters are push-overs and team players, not strategic thinkers or malicious passive agressives. Soon as John Key starts making winning team noises, they’ll vote for the winning team.

I have my eggs, I’ve counted them and by god they’ll all hatch yet.
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October 21, 2008 1:41pm
Ryan Sproull

I’d like to see a graph that’s an average of all the polls, like on RCP in the States.
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October 23, 2008 5:41pm

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