What if Benson-Pope wins?

The ODT reports that Benson-Pope may win Dunedin South:

The Otago Daily Times understands private polling being undertaken in the electorate shows Mr Benson-Pope would win in a canter should he decide to stand.

Now this may just be spin, or the ODT may have seen polling from a reliable company. Time will tell.

So what happens if David Benson-Pope wins. It depends on whether he stands for a registered political party or not. It is safe to assume he will not. He will stand as an Independent or for an unregistered party (such as Independent Labour).

This means we need to look at s191(8) of the Electoral Act 1993.

If any person whose name is endorsed on the writ pursuant to section 185 as a person declared to be elected as a member of Parliament, is an independent … the Chief Electoral Officer shall, for the purposes of applying subsection (7), deduct from the number of 120 the number of any such persons.

So there is no overhang. What it means is that the party which would have gained the 120th place in Parliament will lose that spot to Benson-Pope. There is roughly a 50/50 chance it would be National or Labour.

So Benson-Pope winning could end up giving the centre-left one extra seat at the expense of the centre-right. Or it could have no effect, with Benson-Pope just replacing a Labour MP.

Incidentally Claire Curran is No 45 on the Labour list, and will only come in Labour get more votes than in 2005. So Curran will miss out, if Benson-Pope do win.

I am no fan of David Benson-Pope, but to be fair to him he does have a legitimate reason to be aggrieved. Clark sacked Benson-Pope for telling just one lie, while Clark refuses to take any action against Winston despite Winston’s multiple lies.

Hat Tip: Homepaddock