The Green charade

Some people have suggested I am too cynical in thinking the Greens consultation is a charade, and it is a PR stunt for a decision already made. However Bill Ralston points out an interesting aspect:

I suspect it is largely a stunt to gain them more publicity because they are languishing in the polls and urgently need to galvanise some voter support.

This suspicion was reinforced when Jeanette Fitzsimons was asked if her caucus was split on how the party should vote.

She replied she would not know until next Tuesday’s caucus because she had not spoken to her MPs.

Good grief. There are only half a dozen of them and the carbon footprint from six phone calls to find out what they thought would not be too great, surely?

Fitzsimons and her cunning co-leader Russel Norman are trying to drag out the issue with this bit of theatre to gain maximum media coverage in the run-up to the election.

Can there be any credibility around the statement that the six Greens MPs have not even discussed what their position should be? I mean seriously? So who decided to ask the public for consultation? Wouldn’t that have been a Caucus decision?

I am so convinced they have already decided to back the scheme, despite their failure to get any meaningful concessions, that I was planning to offer $1,000 to someone willing to bet that they would decide not to back the ETS Bill.

I was going to let the market decide the odds, by letting people state how much they would be willing to pay me if the Greens announce they are backing the ETS Bill, and the highest bidder wins. So if someone was willing to give me $100 (and that was the highest bid) if the Greens back the scheme I’d give them $1,000 if the Greens do not back the scheme. I suspect no one would be willing to go much over $100, or 10:1 odds as they near certain to lose.

Sadly however such a harmless little bet would land me in breach of the Gambling Act 2003, so I can’t do it. However people are welcome to post how much they would have been willing to bid as a bet for a chance to get $1,000.  But you would have lost that money to me should the Greens announce on Tuesday they will be backing the ETS Bill despite gaining no significant concessions.