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August 16, 2008 6:20am by David Farrar

Poll Updates

Curiablog has details of yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll, and today’s Fairfax poll.

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Comment23

NZ Politics
curiablog
Polls

Comments (23)

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Patrick Starr

Interesting NZF & Green results between the two polls. (I think I’ll take the Fairfax)
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August 16, 2008 8:28am
Glutaemus Maximus

This is ridiculous. How can these polls be so wrong?

Our dear leader must surely be frothing at the mouth.

Happy days!
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August 16, 2008 9:08am
getstaffed

Had a conversation with someone well connected with the Family Party last night. Apparently Jerry Filipaina’s campaign in Mangere is going pretty well. He’s been door-to-door’ing it for 8 months now and every home has been visited 2 or more times. Taito’s support must be at a low eb. Anyone have any polling info on Mangere?
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August 16, 2008 9:30am
Inventory2

Is the 3News poll due out this weekend? If so, has Duncan Garner had a sneak preview?

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2008/08/confusion-of-duncan-garner.html
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August 16, 2008 9:40am
PaulL

Glutaemus. The Roy Morgan poll shows that whomever does a deal with the Maori Party would govern. The Fairfax poll shows National governing on their own.

On those numbers, I would have thought Helen would be feeling quite happy actually – there is a real chance of cobbling together a coalition. If I was John Key I would be very worried – everyone thinks you have the election sewn up, and actually it comes down to whether United get more than 1 seat, or the Maori Party will be prepared to do a deal.

This is the point where, if I were the Green Party, I would be very clear that a carbon tax was the only bottom line policy. According to the Greens global warming is the biggest problem facing the planet, and the Greens have thought about how to deal with carbon emission reduction more than all the other parties put together. Their policy isn’t bad, but Labour won’t implement it. If the Greens let go of their other baggage, and perhaps agreed to abstain on confidence and supply in return for implementation of a broad-based carbon tax, National would accept that deal right now – even before the election. That would be the biggest policy concession the Greens had ever received, it would significantly alter their relationship with the Labour Party (for the better), and it would get us a sane policy on climate change.

Toad, how about it?
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August 16, 2008 9:41am
deanknight

More interesting is that one shows the Nats can govern alone, while the other shows that they can’t even form a majority coalition (without the Maori party or NZF – which looks unlikely on both counts…).
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August 16, 2008 9:42am
Inventory2

getstaffed – is Jerry Filipaina related to the great leaguie Olsen Filipaina? If so, he will do well! The Filipaina name is spoken with reverence in those parts.
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August 16, 2008 9:43am
Inventory2

Interesting analysis PaulL. However, that theory hinges on New Zealand First remaining in Parliament. Sute, the RM poll had them (him!) at 6.5%, but what will happen if the SFO decides to investigate, and/or a breach of privilege is established? I am very suspicious of Labour pulling a candidate somewhere to let another NZF win some obscure electorate. Clark and Peters are now so joined at the hip that it would be good poltics for Key to say that NZ First is the “last cab off the rank”.
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August 16, 2008 9:48am
Ross Miller

David … I am intrigued that the two polls produce two quite different results for Winston First. The minor party support for all others is remarkably similar in the two polls but the 3.5% difference for NZF with one poll showing a decrease and the
other a increase is ‘interesting’. Would be interested in your take.
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August 16, 2008 10:01am
getstaffed

IV2 – no idea. i guess we’ll know if TPF is spear-tackled near the line 🙂
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August 16, 2008 10:02am
Glutaemus Maximus

My money is still on a National Party able to govern on its own.

Labour have nothing to add to the wishes of the people.

3 Terms and things are back where they started.

It’s the economy, always!
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August 16, 2008 10:54am
3-coil

IV2 (9:40am) – great link, thanks.

I too wondered why Clark was so “unsurprised” when the secret tapes came out – that explains it all!

However we shouldn’t be surprised that gutter-politics are where she dwells so comfortably. Dr Michael Bassett quotes her promise to play as ruthless and dirty as necessary to hold power, and she has shown over the years that she is the perfect person to honour that pledge.

Those polled above have clearly shown that they too are sick of Helen’s leadership style. They know New Zealand does not need a negative leader, with her cynical destructive personality permeating her every political move. The dirty politics just reveal Labour/Helen’s own “secret agenda”: power – at any cost.

The voters are saying: “we need positive leadership” – and it looks like John Key is the man for the job.
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August 16, 2008 11:00am
Glutaemus Maximus

Helun would never stoop so low.

You will be suggesting that she lent her name to works of art next!

Shame on you.
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August 16, 2008 11:24am
Chuck Bird

I got the following from the NewstalkZB website. It puts Winston First on 2%.

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdetail1.asp?storyID=142774

No poll pain for Nats from secret tapes

16/08/2008 8:36:03

Secret tapes and loose talk by MPs have apparently made no difference to the way people feel about the National Party.

Today’s Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll, published in the Dominion Post newspaper, shows a gap between National and Labour of 19 percentage points, which is enough for National to govern alone. National has 54 percent support, up three percentage points and Labour is steady on 35 percent.

New Zealand First has slipped back to just two percent support.

Party leader John Key now gets the nod as preferred prime minister from 43 percent of voters, while Labour’s Helen Clark has 31 percent.

Just 35 percent of voters questioned think National will still be able to afford bigger tax cuts than those outlined by Labour.

The poll also shows that voters are less gloomy about their economic prospects than four months ago. Forty-five percent believe their financial situation will improve in the next 12 months, compared with 30 percent who think it will get worse.

The poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the cocktail party controversy.
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August 16, 2008 11:43am
big bruv

Mark my words Comrades, the big bribe is coming, all of you who are graduates with Student loans will vote for Clark in your droves.

Even those of you who are right wing or at the very least profess to being anti Clark or anti Labour will end up holding your noses and ticking the box marked Labour.
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August 16, 2008 12:18pm
PhilBest

Actually, if any party stands to gain from “fear tactics” now, it is the Nats. They need to be hammering out a warning (oops, there I go inadvertently quoting Pete Seeger) to the effect that “watch out Kiwis, you might end up with another 3 years of Helen if you vote for Winnie/Dunny/Greenies/Maori/Commie Jim.

Come to think of it, surely any new centre-right party could now give themselves a big hand up by promising that they will NOT be part of a coalition with Labour? Want to cast a protest vote against Helen but can’t bring yourselves to vote for the traditional enemy? Want to vote for a party that WON’T just give you 3 more years of soul-selling compromise with Helen? Vote for (……………) (insert name of new centre right party).
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August 16, 2008 12:22pm
PhilBest

Labour and their allies in the media completely shot themselves in the foot with the covert taping of Bill English and the alleged “secret agenda”. It was obvious to anyone with any intelligence that Bill English was being baited by somebody who was posing as a SUPPORTER of privatisation and so on, and his candid replies are in fact, an ASSURANCE to people who want a change from the Heleban, but disagree with the potential “secret agenda”. These people now KNOW, straight from the horse’s mouth, that that agenda is off, even if the Nats candidly say it involved them “swallowing a dead fish” and that they need to get the confidence of the people first.

Furthermore, people can see media bias more clearly than ever when it is this crude, and what’s more, resent being taken for fools. This episode is a winner for the Nats and another nail in the coffin of “old media” credibility.
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August 16, 2008 12:49pm
Inventory2

big bruv – ther can be no big bribe. Remember the budget – Cullen said he had painted the Nats into a corner with their tax cuts, as he had spent all the money. Therefore the Nats would have to borrow or cut to pay for tax cuts greater than Labour’s. How can he now pull a big-money rabbit out of the hat without looking like a complete and utter liar?
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August 16, 2008 1:13pm
Southern Raider

Big Bruv. No point having your loan paid off and then not being able to get a job as the economy continues to crumble under Labour like the Berlin wall.
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August 16, 2008 1:46pm
radvad

Where’s Phil?
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August 16, 2008 2:18pm
big bruv

Inventory

And you think Cullen and Clark have a problem with being labeled liars?

Come on, they will justify it by saying something like;

“We recognise that student debt is a huge problem in NZ and it forces our best and brightest overseas, student debt is slowing the economy and having a drastic effect on the housing market and child poverty.
We believe that any student who makes the commitment to stay in NZ should be rewarded and as such we have decided to make an investment in NZ,s future by announcing a policy that means all student debt will be wiped after eight years.

This policy will be back dated to 1990 and further more we will suspend all repayments for those who are committed to staying in NZ”

End result is another Labour govt and thousands of students and ex students voting Labour and moaning about Clark for another three years.
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August 16, 2008 2:46pm
slightlyrighty

I have heard a number of references from the left with regard to Key and “Flip-Flopping” in an effort to portray him as somewhat less of a leader than Helen Clark who has stated that when she picks a course, she stays with it. (or words to that effect)

I’m pleased to see that this tactic is not working. Perhaps this is why??

In Praise Of The Biggest Political Sin

Candidates have been calling their opponents names throughout history. Here in America, they’ve been called, “a hell raiser,” “a tax raiser,” “”an abolitionist,” “a pro-slaver,” “a hawk,” “a dove,” “a communist,” “a fascist,” “an intellectual,” or “an idiot.” But lately, there is one charge that is capable of doing in a candidate more than any of the others. It is the accusation that someone is a “flip flopper.”

I’m not sure when flip-flopping became the greatest of political sins, but it seems to have established itself as Number One. Not only do candidates charge each other with flip-flopping, but newspapers, television shows, and internet blogs dissect every word a candidate has ever uttered and every vote he has ever cast searching for a fatal flip-flop.

Admittedly, some of the flip-flops by both Presidential candidates in the current campaign have been formidable. This being an Olympic year, a few of their maneuvers might be deemed “double somersaults with a twist.” But I don’t want to go into the specifics of each of their flip-flops here. I want to talk about the flip-flop itself.

Obviously, if a candidate changes his or her position on an issue for purely political reasons, voters and journalists should be cynical about that new position. But even if politicians change their positions because they’ve studied the issues and changed their minds, or if the situation has changed, they’re still attacked as a dreaded flip-flopper.

Why should it be an important quality for a politician to never change his or her mind? Why is it considered good if someone sticks to a position even if it’s obvious to everyone that he or she is wrong? I know of a certain President who seems to pride himself on not being a flip-flopper. No matter what the evidence, he’s always stuck to his position that the war in Iraq was necessary. Throughout, no matter how disastrous things were going, he’s always said that the war was progressing well. (I think he still may believe there were Weapons of Mass Destruction there). He’s never admitted that the way we’ve borrowed money from China and other countries has caused problems for us. In fact, when President Bush was interviewed at the Olympics, he stated that America “doesn’t have problems.”

Do we really want another President who never admits he’s wrong and never changes his positions?

Think about your everyday life. Who do you like better: the guy who stubbornly insists he’s right even when all the facts show he’s wrong, or the guy who says, “I’m sorry. I was wrong about this.” Who’s the better doctor, the one who stands by his original diagnosis despite new information, or the one who says, “The new tests reveal I was wrong?”

And in personal relationships, are you happy with your spouse or significant other when he or she sticks to an opinion no matter what? Of course not. We prefer to be with someone who is “big enough” to flip-flop at times. We have respect for people who say things like: “I wasn’t going to vote for that guy you like, but after reading about him, now I will.” “Wow, I guess a person can be too thin.” “You’re right. I shouldn’t have turned left there.” “Now that I’ve gotten to know her, I don’t find your old college roommate that annoying.” “I’m still not going to try rabbit, but I admit it – snails do taste good.” “I was wrong. A mattress can be too hard.”

So why do we insist that our political officials should never change their minds about anything? Flip-flopping has somehow gotten a bad name. Maybe we should change its name from flip-flopping to something else. How about instead of flip-flopping, we call it, “Changing One’s Position After Reconsidering An Issue?” That’s perfect.

Who am I kidding? That’s way too long. Stupidest name I ever heard. Maybe we should just go back to “flip flop.” Of course, then people will say I’m a flip-flopper for flip-flopping flip-flopping.
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August 16, 2008 8:11pm
3-coil

slightlyrighty: I’m sure you realise that only the National party are capable of/described as “flip-flopping” – a TV3 news-bimbo recently described a Helen Clark flip-flop as her “changing her position after reconsideration” (almost exactly your suggested phrase above).

Then again you’d expect that from Labour toadies TV3.
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August 17, 2008 8:42pm

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