McCain in the lead

The latest Reuters poll has McCain 5% ahead of Obama. Now one should not take too much from one poll, but the RCP average of all polls has Obama’s lead over McCain down to just 1.2%.

Much more significantly is the electoral college count, and for the first time ever, McCain leads – by 274 votes to 264 for Obama. It is too close to call of course, but what is significant is the race is now becoming too close to call.

Obama will be picking his VP next week and ten have his convention. I suspect he will get a huge boost from the convention – especially as his address will be to 65,000 people in a stadium.

Then we get to hear McCain’s VP and his convention. He will then get a boost in turn. Around mid September the polls may start to give us some idea of how the final race is looking.