Coalition Options
I’ve added a new feature onto the party polls at curiablog. Under Coalition options I’ve listed the easiest (as in least number of parties in order of difficulty) scenarios for a National-led Government and Labour-led Government using the seat projection for a poll.
For example the latest TV3 poll had:
Projected Seats
- National 60
- Labour 46
- Green 7
- NZ First 0
- Maori 6
- United Future 1
- ACT 3
- Progressive 1
- Total 124
This then led to the easiest coalition options being:
Coalition Options
- National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/124 – majority possible
- Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 61/124 = no majority possible
I am assuming (and welcome feedback on the assumptions) that ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour.
For National the next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, NZ First and Greens. The order of Maori Party and NZ First is debatable, but I think correct at the moment.
For Labour the next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future. Again the order of Maori Party and NZ First is debatable, but I think correct at the moment.
The idea of the coalition options is to show whether a National-led or Labour-led Government is firstly at all possible on the results, and secondly the minimum number of parties needed (in order of ease) to form a Government.