Are the Greens in danger of extinction?

Vernon Small writes on how Labour’s two main allies – Greens and NZ First, would be wiped out in the latest Fairfax poll.

Now I don’t take too notice of one individual poll, but last night’s One News poll also had both parties below 5%. And not just marginally below but down at 4% or lower. The margin of error at 4% for 1,000 sample is just 1.2%. When two independent polls both have you at 4% or lower, then you would be unwise to assume they are just a blip.

So should the Greens be worried? After all the Roy Morgan poll had them at 7.5%. Let’s take a look at all the polling companies with the Greens.

There does appear to be a pattern of the Roy Morgan poll showing the Greens a fair bit higher than any other company. This does not mean they are wrong, but it does suggest one should be careful of putting too much reliance on it for the Greens. The TV3 poll will be most interesting as they tend to be in the middle of the pack.

The frustration for the Greens is the debate is now will they even survive as a party, not whether or not they might get 10% of the vote. Logically both the Greens and ACT should be polling much higher than they have been with both National and Labour closer to the centre.

The backdown and total non performance by Labour on the Emissions Trading Scheme and carbon emissions should have been a Godsend to the Greens. The number of left wing voters disgusted with Labour’s ethics should have seen some support flow to the Greens.

But instead we seem to be seeing votes flow from the Greens to Labour.  Labour has definitely picked up support over the last two months – but from the minor parties as much as from National.  This will be good news for the lower ranked MPs who might keep their seats now, but bad news for Labour long-term if they discover after the election their only ally is Jim Anderton.