Is it Labour is unpopular or National being popular?

Interesting discussion on Nine to Noon yesterday in the politics segment. Matthew Hooton challenged the conventional wisdom that Labour is so far behind just because it is time for a change.

Hooton made the point that in 1990 and 1999 the Opposition Leader polled behind the Prime Minister in the Preferred PM polls prior to the election campaign. He asserted that this was a classic case of people just wanting a change and not being particularly excited over the alternative.

He contrasts this with 2008 when John Key is currently polling ahead of Helen Clark in every public poll as Preferred PM, hence this is not just a rejection of a third term Government, but a sign of genuine good will and warmth towards the National Party Leader.

Hooton certainly is correct that no Opposition Leader has ever polled as strongly as John Key has in the Preferred PM poll.