Watkins on Labour

Dominion Post Political Editor Tracy Watkins looks at Labour’s plight:

And, finally, the desperate knowledge that even hitting the panic button probably won’t work. That, barring the heavens answering their prayers for an election-losing blunder by John Key, the two most likely scenarios now are to lose or to lose badly.

I like that – a choice between losing and losing badly. It is at times like that you start looking forward to the next election, and start debating whether one should not spend all (or too much) of their money on the 2008 campaign, or keep some in the kitty for 2011.

There are early signs that the mood in the caucus is already swinging in that direction: resentment is now brewing over the MPs who have refused to give up their safe seats – George Hawkins and Harry Duynhoven among them – to clear the decks for the generational change that will be forced on Labour in the event of an election defeat.

Both Harry and George have been reselected and control their local electorates. But there will be immense pressure to put the party first and step down, so that some of the new talented MPs such as Lousia Wall have a chance of retaining their place in Parliament.

But the party hierarchy faces a pincer movement as pressure builds on two fronts: the first, the desperation of sitting MPs for winnable list slots; the second, the rising pressure to preserve the best and brightest in Labour’s current ranks and make room for some up-and- comers to slot into Parliament post-election should there be an exodus in the event of a defeat.

Since Miss Clark and Dr Cullen are likely to lead the pack, the subterranean- level jockeying for post- election leadership scenarios may have already begun.

There are whispers that the campaign against Maryan Street, a possible deputy leadership contender from the Left of the party, is already in full swing.

The signs of panic, then, may be in their infancy – but they may also be a sign of things to come.

Street as Deputy Leader would be very resisted by Goff and the more moderate faction. Gof would rightly suspect he would be being setup to be interim Leader, and then rolled by the same forces which rolled Moore in 1993.

So who are the contenders for the three top spots. First Leader:

1. Phil Goff
2. David Cunliffe
3. Shane Jones

Goff has to be favourite at this stage. With Maharey gone and Mallard in the sin bin, there is no credible contender from the left – Goff, Cunliffe and Jones are all from the more moderate side.

Deputy has a range of contenders:

1. Maryan Street
2. Clayton Cosgrove
3. Shane Jones
4. Chris Carter

Maybe Dyson or Dalziel also, but both would be challenging choices having both been sacked from Cabinet for indiscretions.

And then Finance Spokesperson:

1. David Cunliffe
2. Trevor Mallard
3. Shane Jones

Cunliffe is the logical choice, but logic does not always come into it.