Violent Crime

The Police released the latest crime statistics this week. I tend to focus on violent and sexual crime for two reasons.  Firstly because it tends to be the most serious and damaging offending. The overall crime rate holds little meaning as very minor offences such as cannabis possession are given the same weight as a serious assault or worse.

The second reason is that violent crimes especially are the most likely to be reported, and less susceptible to changes in policing practice.  Changes in the level of “victimless” crimes are almost totally related to the amount of targeting the Police put into those areas.

There are four distinct trend periods in the graph above.  Firstly violent crime did rise from 1990 to 1994. They were tough times for a number of reasons. But from 1994 to 1999 the level of violent crime basically stayed cnstant, and even declined in terms of the population rate.

Then from 2000 to 2004 there was a modest level of growth in the violent crime level and rate. And from 2004 to 2007 there has been basically massive increases in violent crime levels.  The number of record violent crimes is 44% higher than in 1999, and the rate of violent crime is 32% higher.

Now the Police have said the latest increase is mainly domestic violence, and may be as a result of publicity encouraging greater reporting. I’m somewhat sceptical that an increase in recorded violent crime of 6,250 is solely due to increased reporting than an increased actual level of violent crime.

So let us look at the sub-categories of violent crime and how each has grown in the last year:

1. Homicides dropped 10 (10%) from 98 to 88. Less full moons last year I guess
2. Kidnappings dropped 6 (2%) from 263 to 257
3. Robberies dropped 191 (7%) from 2801 to 2610
4. Grievous Assaults increased 715 (17%) from 4,116 to 4,831
5. Serious Assaults increased 2,894 (16%) from 17,729 to 20,623
6. Minor Assaults increased 1,321 (10%) from 12,700 to 14,021
7. Intimidations increased 1,410 (11%) from 12,567 to 13,977
8. Group Assemblies increased 119 (26%) from 457 to 576
9. Wounding with Intent increased 168 (30%) from 554 to 722
10. Injuring with Intent increased 182 (20%) from 895 to 1,077
11. Assaults on Police increased 79 (23%) from 342 to 421

Now remember this is just the increase in the last calendar year – it is not the increase since 1999.

It is worrying that the greatest percentage increases are in the more serious assault categories. And they are the ones most likely to not have been under-reported in the past. Minor assaults may have been not reported as often as they should, but if someone has actually stabbed you with a knife, that tends to get reported I suspect.