An unproportional result
Keith Ng blogs on an issue I planned to cover in more detail. What would happen if an overhang in seats for the Maori Party resulted in a Government being elected that got less votes than the Opposition? Keith gives an example:
Anderton, Dunne and Hide gets <2% party vote between them. Maori Party gets all 7 Maori seats, with 3% of the party vote. We get a Parliament of 125 MPs. National + Hide + Dunne have 62 seats. Labour + Greens + Anderton have 56 seats.
In this scenario, the Maori Party could reverse a 6-seat gap with 3% of party votes.
That would be a fundamental slap in the face of proportional representation, and the scale of it would be made possible because of the Maori seats.
In this scenario, I would predict one of two likely responses.
The first is that MMP would be swept aside as its main virtue (and I support MMP over FPP) would be undermined.
The second is that the major parties would respond to this overhang situation by creating their own overhangs by creating party vote only parties and electorate seat only parties. Then all electorate seats would be overhangs (and we would ironically have a Supplementary Member style electoral system) and the House would have 190 MPs!