McCain and Obama win

As expected McCain and Obama won Virginia, Maryland and DC.  Let’s look at scenarios now.

McCain has 797 delegates, with Romney on 285 and Huckabee on 240.  Also Paul on 14.  He needs 1,191 to win on another 394. Huckabee may withdraw at some stage (or Romney may endorse – less likely), but how long might it take for McCain to get 394 extra.

It is impossible to be precise as only Vermont is winner take all.  But the earliest McCain can win, if Huckabee stays in is at Pennsylvania on 22 April – their 74 delegates could push him over 1,200.

On the 4th of March you have Texas (140), Ohio (88), Rhode Island (20) and Vermont (17).  If McCain wins all of those then Huckabee might throw it in.

The Democat side is more fascinating. Obama has 1,259 to 1,210 for Clinton.  Remove the super delegates who can defect and it is  Obama 1,103 to 968 Clinton.

Now they need 2,025 to win so Obama needs 766 to win and Clinton needs 815.  However the remaining primaries and caucuses have only 1,078 delegates assigned to them.  It is almost impossible for Obama to win 766/1078 due to their method of allocating delegates not being winner takes all.

So the way it will be resolved is either by one candidate withdrawing, or failing that the party leadership (or John Edwards endorsing) urging super delegates to pledge themselves to the front runner to get a result.  There are still 398 super delegates yet to declare.

The Democrats have Democrats Abroad today (7 delegates) and on the 19th Wisconsin and Hawaii.  Obama is likely to win both those so if hw wins Democrats Abraod also that will be 11 in a row.

It may also all turn on the 4th of March – Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont are up for a total of 370 delegates.  Clinton really needs to win both Texas and Ohio or the pressure will really go on to withdraw.