Key Derangement Syndrome

It has been amusing to witness the furious assault on John Key in recent months. Its intensity has only been matched at times by its stupidity. A useful term for it is Key Derangement Syndrome ((c) Whale Oil), Take for example John Key’s hongi with Tame Iti at Waitangi.

Labour seemed to think that was some sort of huge election losing blunder that would alienate all “mainstream” New Zealanders. They blew up photos of it, and waved it around the House. The vast majority of NZers of course could quite rationally conclude that this does not mean John Key has joined Te Qaeda, but that he is being polite and following protocol on a marae – when in Rome do as the Romans do. In fact it may even have gained him support and sympathy that unlike Clark he is prepared to front up and be cordial to people he might rather not spend time with.

Now the result of all these attacks has been to send John Key soaring in the Preferred PM polls. Now this one is not anywhere near as important as the party vote. Bolger for example won three elections and never scored highly as Preferred PM.

But 44% for an Opposition Leader is unheard of – especially 10 months out from the actual election. In the One News series which goes back to 1984, Bolger never got over 20% in Opposition. Moore peaked at 25%. Clark only once made it past 30% in Opposition – and that was at the time Bolger was being rolled. Shipley and English peaked at 20% and Brash twice cleared 30% but only just, and briefly.

So 44% is extraordinarily high for someone who is Opposition Leader, but it is also incredibly high for someone who actually is the PM. The only person ever to score over 44% as PM was Clark herself in 2000 and 2002/03. Even Lange at the height of his popularity never got over 40%.

Now as I said, the party vote is the important one. But politically it is fascinating that so many people are not just making a negative statement about wanting to change the Government, but also what appears to be an affirmative statement that they want to see John Key as Prime Minister and see what sort of job he’ll do.