Goff denies coup

I couldn’t resist that headline after seeing Phil Goff denying on TV last night that he is plotting against Helen Clark.  The old joke is that no coup is ever official until it is denied!

I stand by my opinion that there will be no move against Clark before the election – for two reasons.  The first is the coup would not succeed – she has the numbers.  The second is it could be a poisoned chalice.  However you may start to see some positioning for post-election manoeuvres.

Post election could see Goff as Leader and Cunliffe as Finance.  Who would be Deputy is harder to pick at this stage.  King is an obvious choice but she may not plan to be around much longer.

John Armstrong writes in the Herald:

Life without Helen Clark? Labour’s abysmal showing in Saturday’s Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll will have the party’s MPs inevitably thinking the unthinkable – but only briefly…

Labour’s big fear is that should the leadership genie get well and truly out of the bottle, it will be impossible to stuff it back in.

It would be a disaster for Labour if Clark’s leadership, which has been seen as an electoral strength, suddenly became a weakness through continued speculation on possible coups and challenges.

There was obvious Beehive nervousness yesterday about the possibility of that happening, with Clark cutting short questions on the subject at her weekly post-Cabinet press conference…

Goff has made no impact on the polls despite being in Parliament for 24 of the past 27 years. The panic button will have to be well and truly pushed before the Labour caucus would opt for him as its potential saviour.

Better from his point of view to take over the leadership after the election than before – presuming he can muster the numbers. Goff knows the score. He was a Cabinet minister before the 1990 election when Mike Moore ousted Sir Geoffrey Palmer just eight weeks before the nation voted.

I think under MMP MPs are less likely to panic also.  Under FPP an MP was toast if they lost their seat, so they would sell their grandmother down the river if it increased their chance of survival. But with MMP over half the Caucus are guaranteed to keep their seats even if the result is as low as 25%, so you don’t have the same self preservation instinct over-riding all reason.