Clinton vs Obama

It is now looking likely John McCain will emerge as the Republican nominee.  The Democratic nomination is still much more closely fought, and this Gallup poll series of nationwide voting preferences shows a clear trend.  I think Obama would be happier in Super Duper Tuesday was another week or so away, rather than middle of next week.

The graph is taken from Andrew Sullivan’s site. It is worth noting though that other polls don’t have it quite so close. The RCP average of all polls has Clinton 8.6% ahead. And more importantly the state poll averages have Clinton leading in most of the big states except Georgia. However they are not winner take all states, so it may not be enough to put Clinton over the line.  The withdrawal of Edwards helps though.

It is worth reflecting that with Edwards out, history will be made with the Democratic nominee – either the first woman or the first African-American.  Both are welcome steps – even though that is not reason by itself to vote for either of them.