1990 election

Whale Oil points out that governing alone isn’t impossible under MMP, looking at the 1990 election result where National got 47.8%.  If one takes away the wasted vote that is
50.4% of the effective vote.

Most do expect that National will lose some support from its current leels of low to mid 50s. But where will that support go to? Will it be ACT or United Future?  Will Winston pick it up?  Will the Kiwi Party or the Family Party siphon some off?

Of course it is by no means certain National will lose support to minor partie during the campaign.  I have previously debunked this theory as being only weakly supported by the empirical evidence.