Iowa

Well later today it will be the 3rd in the US, so what is the latest for the nominations?

In the markets, Clinton has made a recovery and gone from 55c to around 62c, While Obama drops from 25c to 25c.  That is the cost of buying “shares” which will pay $1 if that candidate wins.  However this is not for the outcome in Iowa, but who will get the nomination overall.  But the direction is interesting.

Turning to specific polls in Iowa, there have been five in the last few days.  They have shown (from oldest to most recent) Clinton +1%,  Clinton +2%, Obama +7%, Obama +3% and a Clinton-Obama tie.  So who the hell knows.  The average of those five has Clinton on 28.6%, Obama on 29.0% and Edwards 26.0% so it is a very close three-way race.

The next state up is New Hampshire and Clinton leads by 5.7% on average there.  However whoever wins Ohio should get momentum from that and New Hampshire may change.

The markets for the Republican nomination has Romney at 33c, McCain 25c, Giuliani 22c, and Huckabee 13c.  But again that is for the evental nominee.  In the last week Giuliani has dropped from 1st to 3rd.

The state polls for Iowa are just as close as the Democrats. Four polls in the last few days and the results have been Romney +3%, Huckabee +6%, Romney +2%, Huckabee +2%.  That’s an average of 29.0% Huckabee, 28.3% Romney.

There’s some speculation Ron Paul could come third.  McCain is on 13%, Thompson 12% and Paul 8%.  Giuliani effectively isn’t contesting this state.

New Hampshire also looking a great bunfight.  Of the last three polls there where it is McCain vs Romney two have been ties, and one has McCain 9% ahead.  The first poll after the Iowa result will be interesting.  McCain may be the beneficiary of Romney and Huckabee bashing each other.